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Regra de Taylor e política monetária em condições de endividamento público no Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Cleomar Gomes

    (FGV-EESP)

  • Márcio Holland

    (UFU)

Abstract
The aim of this paper is to analyze, empirically, the relationship between the Central Bank’s reaction, also known as Taylor Rule, and the Brazilian public debt. The article is justified once the majority of the researches regarding the Brazilian reaction function doesn’t model the public debt. Our results show that when the Central Bank increases the interest rate, it manages to decrease inflation and the GDP growth. However, these impacts are smoothed by the increase of the debt/GDP and, as a result, by the probability of default. The latter, better than explaining higher interest rates, is explained by them .

Suggested Citation

  • Cleomar Gomes & Márcio Holland, 2003. "Regra de Taylor e política monetária em condições de endividamento público no Brasil," Economia, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics], vol. 4(2), pages 333-361, July-Dece.
    • Handle: RePEc:anp:econom:v:4:y:2003:i:2:p:333-361
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
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    7. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: lessons and challenges," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 106-133, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Taylor rule; public debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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