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The Italian financial cycle: 1861-2011

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo De Bonis

    (Bank of Italy, Economics, Research and International Relations, Via Nazionale 91, 00184, Rome, Italy)

  • Andrea Silvestrini

    (Bank of Italy, Economics, Research and International Relations, Via Nazionale 91, 00184, Rome, Italy)

Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the main features of the Italian financial cycle, extracted by means of a structural trend-cycle decomposition of the credit-to-GDP ratio, using annual observations from 1861 to 2011. In order to draw conclusions based on solid historical data, we provide a thorough reconstruction of the key balance sheet time series of Italian banks, considering all the main assets and liabilities over the last 150 years. We come to three main conclusions. First, while there was close correlation between loans and deposits (relative to GDP) until the mid-1970s, over the last 30 years, this link became more tenuous and the volume of loans has increased in relation to deposits. The banks covered this “funding gap” mainly by issuing new debt securities. Second, the Italian financial cycle has a much longer duration than traditional business cycles. Third, taking into account the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its trend, an acceleration of credit preceded or accompanied a banking crisis in 8 out of the 12 episodes listed by Reinhart and Rogoff (This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009). A Logit regression confirms a positive association between the probability of a banking crisis and a previous acceleration of the credit-to-GDP gap. However, there were also periods -such as the early 1970s- in which the growth of the credit-to-GDP ratio was not followed by a banking crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo De Bonis & Andrea Silvestrini, 2014. "The Italian financial cycle: 1861-2011," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 8(3), pages 301-334, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:8:y:2014:i:3:p:301-334
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    3. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Roberta Fiori & Enrico Sette, 2015. "A note on the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Agovino, Massimiliano & Bartoletto, Silvana & Garofalo, Antonio, 2022. "A long-term analysis of efficiency in the Italian banking system from 1861 to 2010," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 227-241.
    5. Guido Bulligan & Lorenzo Burlon & Davide Delle Monache & Andrea Silvestrini, 2019. "Real and financial cycles: estimates using unobserved component models for the Italian economy," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 28(3), pages 541-569, September.
    6. Malgorzata Porada - Rochon, 2020. "The Length of Financial Cycle and its Impact on Business Cycle in Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1278-1290.
    7. Andrea Incerpi & Barbara Pistoresi & Alberto Rinaldi, 2020. "Finance and Development in Italy, 1870-1913," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(9), pages 1-95, September.
    8. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    9. Kunovac, Davor & Mandler, Martin & Scharnagl, Michael, 2018. "Financial cycles in euro area economies: A cross-country perspective," Discussion Papers 04/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Claudio Borio, 2017. "Secular stagnation or financial cycle drag?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(2), pages 87-98, April.
    11. Lenarčič, Črt, 2021. "Estimating business and financial cycles in Slovenia," MPRA Paper 109977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bartoletto, Silvana & Chiarini, Bruno & Marzano, Elisabetta & Piselli, Paolo, 2019. "Business cycles, credit cycles, and asymmetric effects of credit fluctuations: Evidence from Italy for the period of 1861–2013," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Paolo Piselli, 2018. "Banking Crises and Boom-Bust Dynamics: Evidence for Italy (1861-2016)," CESifo Working Paper Series 6972, CESifo.
    14. Silvana Bartoletto & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano & Paolo Piselli, 2018. "Banking crises and business cycle: evidence for Italy(1861-2016)," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(1), pages 34-61, October.
    15. Anastasiou, Dimitrios, 2017. "Is ex-post credit risk affected by the cycles? The case of Italian banks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 242-248.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking system; Credit-to-GDP ratio; Financial cycle; Unobserved components;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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