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Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia

Author

Listed:
  • Demian Pouzo
  • Ignacio Presno
Abstract
This paper studies how international investors' concerns about model misspecification affect sovereign bond spreads. We develop a general equilibrium model of sovereign debt with endogenous default wherein investors fear that the probability model of the underlying state of the borrowing economy is misspecified. Consequently, investors demand higher returns on their bond holdings to compensate for the default risk in the context of uncertainty. In contrast with the existing literature on sovereign default, we match the bond spreads dynamics observed in the data together with other business cycle features for Argentina, while preserving the default frequency at historical low levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2016. "Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 230-266, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:8:y:2016:i:3:p:230-66
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20140337
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Niemann, Stefan & Prein, Timm, 2024. "Sovereign Risk under Diagnostic Expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302386, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Converse, Nathan & Mallucci, Enrico, 2023. "Differential treatment in the bond market: Sovereign risk and mutual fund portfolios," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Cakici, S. Meral, 2024. "Risk premium in a real business cycle framework," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 111-122.
    6. Thomas McGregor, 2019. "Pricing Sovereign Debt in Resource-Rich Economies," IMF Working Papers 2019/240, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    8. Josefin Meyer & Carmen M Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Sovereign Bonds Since Waterloo," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1615-1680.
    9. Sergio De Ferra & Enrico Mallucci, 2020. "Avoiding Sovereign Default Contagion: A Normative Analysis," FEDS Notes 2020-09-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Bornstein, Gideon, 2020. "A Continuous-Time Model of Sovereign Debt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    11. Gilles Dufrénot & Anne-Charlotte Paret, 2018. "Sovereign debt in emerging market countries: not all of them are serial defaulters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(59), pages 6406-6443, December.
    12. Marina Azzimonti & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2024. "International Spillovers and Bailouts," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 77-128.
    13. Bassanin, Marzio & Faia, Ester & Patella, Valeria, 2021. "Ambiguity attitudes and the leverage cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    14. Thomas McGregor, 2017. "Pricing sovereign debt in resource rich economies," OxCarre Working Papers 194, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    15. Bennett, Federico & Montamat, Giselle & Roch, Francisco, 2023. "Robust optimal macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    16. Moretti,Matías & Pandolfi,Lorenzo & Schmukler,Sergio L. & Villegas Bauer,Germán & Williams,Tomás, 2024. "Inelastic Demand Meets Optimal Supply of Risky Sovereign Bonds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10735, The World Bank.
    17. Pina, Gonçalo, 2024. "State-contingent debt with lender risk aversion," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 180-189.
    18. Juan Passadore & Juan Xandri, 2019. "Robust Predictions in Dynamic Policy Games," 2019 Meeting Papers 1345, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Chahine, Salim & Chidambaran, N.K., 2023. "Do sovereign-bond issuers learn from peers?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    21. Cecilia Ciocîrlan & Andreea Popescu-Crețulescu & Andreea Mădălina Stancea, 2024. "European Financial Markets Exposed to Exogenous Shocks: Communication Dynamics Among Investors and Tech Models to Detect Financial Contagion," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 16(9), pages 81-95, May.
    22. Marina Azzimonti & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2019. "International spillovers and `ex-ante' efficient bailouts," 2019 Meeting Papers 318, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    23. Passadore, Juan & Xu, Yu, 2022. "Illiquidity in sovereign debt markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    24. Pan, Wei-Fong & Wang, Xinjie & Xiao, Yaqing & Xu, Weike & Zhang, Jinfan, 2024. "The effect of economic and political uncertainty on sovereign CDS spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 143-155.
    25. Bernardo Guimaraes & Lucas Tumkus, 2020. "On the costs of sovereign default in quantitative models," Discussion Papers 2021, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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