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Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series

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  • Levy, Daniel
Abstract
This paper makes three contributions: First, I construct annual time series of gross domestic investment and national saving in the U.S. for the 1897–1949 period using historical component series. I compare the qualitative and quantitative properties of the newly constructed series with the properties of four existing alternative series constructed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Commerce Department, Kuznets, and Kendrick. Second, I combine the newly constructed data with the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ 1929–89 period data, and the resulting time series are used to re-examine and document the long-run bivariate relationship between the time series of investment and saving. Third, I also examine the short-run as well as the cyclical relationships between the time series of investment and saving. The results reported in this paper indicate that there is a strong long-run and cyclical relationship between investment and saving, and this relationship seems to be independent of the time period considered. Furthermore, I find that during the postwar period the investment-saving comovement is strong and significant also in the short run. However, this is not true during the prewar period. Quantitatively, I find that the investment-saving relationship is stronger during the postwar period than the prewar period. Feldstein and his coauthors have argued that the high investment-saving correlation reflects imperfect capital mobility. This view, however, is hard to reconcile with the finding that the correlation increased during a period in which it is largely believed that capital markets have become more open and integrated. I conclude, therefore, that long-term capital mobility tests based on investment-saving correlation analysis are not likely to provide an accurate measure of capital mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Levy, Daniel, 2000. "Investment-Saving Comovement and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Century Long U.S. Time Series," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 100-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:206769
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    Cited by:

    1. Jun‐Hyung Ko & Yoshito Funashima, 2019. "On the Sources of the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle across Time and Frequencies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(4), pages 889-910, August.
    2. Daniel Levy & Hashem Dezhbakhsh, 2003. "On the typical spectral shape of an economic variable," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 417-423.
    3. Young, Andrew T. & Higgins, Matthew J. & Levy, Daniel, 2013. "Heterogeneous Convergence," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 120(2), pages 238-241.
    4. Snir, Avichai & Levy, Daniel, 2010. "Economic Growth in the Potterian Economy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 211-236.
    5. Erdal Ozmen & Kağan Parmaksiz, 2003. "Exchange rate regimes and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: the French evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 217-222.
    6. Levy, Daniel, 2002. "Cointegration in Frequency Domain," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 23(3), pages 333-339.
    7. Joakim Westerlund, 2006. "Testing for Panel Cointegration with Multiple Structural Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(1), pages 101-132, February.
    8. Matthew Higgins & Daniel Levy & Andrew T. Young, 2003. "Growth and Convergence across the US: Evidence from County-Level Data," Working Papers 2003-03, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
    9. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Money stock versus monetary base in time–frequency exchange rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. Mathias Hoffmann, 2004. "Saving, investment and the net foreign asset position," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 45, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    11. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2004. "International capital mobility in the long run and the short run: can we still learn from saving-investment data?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 113-131, February.
    12. Óscar Penagos Gómez & Héctor Rojas Serrano & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2013. "La paradoja Feldstein – Horioka: Evidencia para Colombia (1925 – 2011)," Documentos de Trabajo 12393, Universidad Católica de Colombia.
    13. Levy, Daniel, 2004. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 49-66.
    14. Higgins, Matthew J. & Levy, Daniel & Young, Andrew T., 2006. "Growth and Convergence across the United States: Evidence from County-Level Data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 88(4), pages 671-681.
    15. Singh Tarlok, 2017. "Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries: Evidence from Panel Data Estimators," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-16, December.
    16. Singh, Tarlok, 2008. "Testing the Saving-Investment correlations in India: An evidence from single-equation and system estimators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1064-1079, September.
    17. Yannick BINEAU, 2010. "A Empirical Assessment of the Feldstein and Horioka Literature," EcoMod2010 259600030, EcoMod.
    18. SELLAMI, Ahmed & CHIKHI, Mohamed, 2014. "اختبار العلاقة السببية والتكامل المشترك بين الادخار والاستثمار في الاقتصاد الجزائري خلال الفترة (1970ـ2011) [Causality and cointegration Testing between Savings and Investment in the Algerian Econo," MPRA Paper 76692, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    19. Levy, Daniel & Dezhbakhsh, Hashem, 2003. "International evidence on output fluctuation and shock persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1499-1530, October.
    20. Óscar Penagos Gómez & Héctor Rojas Serrano & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2015. "La Paradoja de Feldstein-Horioka – Evidencia para Colombia durante 1925-2011," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, vol. 19(40), pages 4-24, June.
    21. Chen, Baoline & Zadrozny, Peter A., 2009. "Estimated U.S. manufacturing production capital and technology based on an estimated dynamic structural economic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1398-1418, July.
    22. Phiri, Andrew, 2019. "The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from South Africa using Asymmetric Cointegration Analysis," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 72(2), pages 139-170.
    23. Ketenci, Natalya, 2018. "Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Level of Capital Mobility in EU Members," MPRA Paper 100075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Ozmen, Erdal & Parmaksiz, Kagan, 2003. "Policy regime change and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: the UK evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-149, February.
    25. Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle and the global recession period: Evidence from South Africa using asymmetric cointegration analysis," MPRA Paper 79096, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment-Saving Comovement; Open Economies; Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle; Capital Mobility; Long-Run; Medium-Run; Short-Run; Domestic Investment; National Saving; Intertemporal Budget Constraint; Time Series; Frequency Domain; Bivariate Spectral Analysis; Coherence; Phase; Gain; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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