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Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach

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  • Bobojonov, Ihtiyor
  • Aw-Hassan, Aden
Abstract
Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogenous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the sub-national levels. The bio-economic farm model (BEFM) is used for ex ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The BEFM is calibrated to 10 farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Aw-Hassan, Aden, 2014. "Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 188, pages 245-255.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:171321
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2014.02.033
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    Cited by:

    1. Bekchanov, Maksud, 2024. "Conveyance efficiency and irrigation water productivity under varying water supply conditions in arid lowlands of Central Asia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    2. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2015. "The effects of variability under farm land consolidation process: A perspective of cotton-growing farmers in Uzbekistan," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211829, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Kedar Mehta & Mathias Ehrenwirth & Christoph Trinkl & Wilfried Zörner & Rick Greenough, 2021. "The Energy Situation in Central Asia: A Comprehensive Energy Review Focusing on Rural Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-27, May.
    4. Muradullayev, Nuriddin & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Mustafaqulov, Sherzod, 2014. "Current state and future prospects of crop insurance in Uzbekistan," ReCCA-Conference 2014 212559, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    5. Laura Moritz & Lena Kuhn & Ihtiyor Bobojonov, 2023. "The role of peer imitation in agricultural index insurance adoption: Findings from lab‐in‐the‐field experiments in Kyrgyzstan," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 1649-1672, August.
    6. Emileva, Begaiym & Kuhn, Lena & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Glauben, Thomas, 2023. "The role of smartphone-based weather information acquisition on climate change perception accuracy: Cross-country evidence from Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 41, pages 1-1.
    7. Buisson, M.-C. & Balasubramanya, Soumya, 2019. "The effect of irrigation service delivery and training in agronomy on crop choice in Tajikistan," Papers published in Journals (Open Access), International Water Management Institute, pages 81:175-184..
    8. Eltazarov, Sarvarbek & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Kuhn, Lena & Glauben, Thomas, 2021. "Mapping weather risk – A multi-indicator analysis of satellite-based weather data for agricultural index insurance development in semi-arid and arid zones of Central Asia," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 23.
    9. Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Berg, Ernst & Franz-Vasdeki, Jennifer & Martius, Christopher & Lamers, John P.A., 2016. "Income and irrigation water use efficiency under climate change: An application of spatial stochastic crop and water allocation model to Western Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 13, pages 19-30.
    10. Regina Neudert & Naiba Allahverdiyeva & Niyaz Mammadov & Alexandre Didebulidze & Volker Beckmann, 2020. "Diversification of Livestock-Keeping Smallholders in Mountainous Rural Regions of Azerbaijan and Georgia," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-25, August.
    11. Mori-Clement, Yadira & Bhaduri, Anik & Djanibekov, Nodir, 2014. "Food price fluctuations in Uzbekistan: Evidences from local markets in 2002-2010," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 183091, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. repec:aud:audfin:v:21:y:2019:i:51:p:285 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Hasibuan, Abdul Muis & Gregg, Daniel & Stringer, Randy, 2020. "Accounting for diverse risk attitudes in measures of risk perceptions: A case study of climate change risk for small-scale citrus farmers in Indonesia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    14. Babakholov, Sherzod & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Hasanov, Shavkat & Glauben, Thomas, 2022. "An empirical assessment of the interactive impacts of irrigation and climate on farm productivity in Samarkand region, Uzbekistan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7.
    15. Bekchanov, Maksud & Bhaduri, Anik & Ringler, Claudia, 2015. "Potential gains from water rights trading in the Aral Sea Basin," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 41-56.
    16. Vasilii Erokhin & Li Diao & Peiran Du, 2020. "Sustainability-Related Implications of Competitive Advantages in Agricultural Value Chains: Evidence from Central Asia—China Trade and Investment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-29, February.
    17. Wanlu Liu & Lulu Liu & Jiangbo Gao, 2020. "Adapting to climate change: gaps and strategies for Central Asia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 25(8), pages 1439-1459, December.
    18. Djanibekov, Utkur & Finger, Robert, 2018. "Agricultural risks and farm land consolidation process in transition countries: The case of cotton production in Uzbekistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 223-235.
    19. Sharofiddinov Husniddin & Moinul Islam & Koji Kotani, 2024. "Farm sizes and adaptation responses to climate change in agriculture: A reflection of Tajikistan’s farming culture and history," Working Papers SDES-2024-2, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised May 2024.
    20. Nicolae Istudor & Raluca Andreea Ion & Irina Elena Petrescu & Andrei Hrebenciuc, 2019. "Agriculture and the Twofold Relationship between Food Security and Climate Change. Evidence from Romania," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 21(51), pages 285-285.
    21. Hamidov, Ahmad & Helming, Katharina & Balla, Dagmar, 2014. "Research on Land Use Functions in Central Asia: A bibliometric analysis," ReCCA-Conference 2014 212555, Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO).
    22. Donna Mitchell & Ryan B. Williams & Darren Hudson & Phillip Johnson, 2017. "A Monte Carlo analysis on the impact of climate change on future crop choice and water use in Uzbekistan," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 9(4), pages 697-709, August.

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