[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/riskan/v33y2013i3p480-492.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case

Author

Listed:
  • Alexandre Cordier
  • Jean Gohin
  • Stephane Krebs
  • Arnaud Rault
Abstract
In foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) free countries, the occurrence of an FMD outbreak is a rare event with potentially large economic losses. We explore the dynamic effects of an FMD outbreak on market variables and economic surplus taking into account the largely neglected issue of farm bankruptcy. Simulations are performed on a stylized agricultural economy, which is a net exporter before the outbreak. We find complex dynamic market effects when the farm credit market suffers from information imperfections leading to farm closure. Welfare effects are also dramatically altered. Domestic consumers may lose in the long run from an FMD outbreak because domestic supply contracts. On the other hand, farmers able to resist this event may ultimately gain. Our analysis also shows that these effects are not monotone, making any efficient policy response to this catastrophic event quite challenging.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexandre Cordier & Jean Gohin & Stephane Krebs & Arnaud Rault, 2013. "Dynamic Impacts of a Catastrophic Production Event: The Foot‐and‐Mouth Disease Case," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(3), pages 480-492, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:3:p:480-492
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01902.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01902.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01902.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M.-J. J. Mangen & A. M. Burrell, 2003. "Who gains, who loses? Welfare effects of classical swine fever epidemics in the Netherlands," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 30(2), pages 125-154, June.
    2. Jarvis, Lovell S, 1974. "Cattle as Capital Goods and Ranchers as Portfolio Managers: An Application to the Argentine Cattle Sector," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(3), pages 489-520, May/June.
    3. James Vercammen, 2007. "Farm bankruptcy risk as a link between direct payments and agricultural investment," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 34(4), pages 479-500, December.
    4. Levan Elbakidze & Linda Highfield & Michael Ward & Bruce A. McCarl & Bo Norby, 2009. "Economics Analysis of Mitigation Strategies for FMD Introduction in Highly Concentrated Animal Feeding Regions," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 931-950.
    5. Elbakidze, Levan & McCarl, Bruce A., 2006. "Animal Disease Pre-Event Preparedness versus Post-Event Response: When is it Economic to Protect?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 1-10, August.
    6. Olivier Mahul & Alexandre Gohin, 1999. "Irreversible decision making in contagious animal disease control under uncertainty : an illustration using FMD in Brittany," Post-Print hal-01952087, HAL.
    7. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, July.
    8. Barry, Peter J. & Robison, Lindon J., 2001. "Agricultural finance: Credit, credit constraints, and consequences," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 513-571, Elsevier.
    9. Ashok Mishra & Charles Moss & Kenneth Erickson, 2008. "The role of credit constraints and government subsidies in farmland valuations in the US: an options pricing model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 285-297, March.
    10. Geert Thijssen, 1996. "Farmers' Investment Behavior: An Empirical Assessment of Two Specifications of Expectations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 166-174.
    11. Jarkko K. Niemi & Heikki Lehtonen, 2011. "Modelling pig sector dynamic adjustment to livestock epidemics with stochastic-duration trade disruptions," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 38(4), pages 529-551, October.
    12. Aadland, David, 2004. "Cattle cycles, heterogeneous expectations and the age distribution of capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 1977-2002, September.
    13. Mahul, Olivier & Gohin, Alexandre, 1999. "Irreversible Decision Making in Contagious Animal Disease Control under Uncertainty: An Illustration Using FMD in Brittany," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 26(1), pages 39-58, March.
    14. Howard D. Leathers & Jean-Paul Chavas, 1986. "Farm Debt, Default, and Foreclosure: An Economic Rationale for Policy Action," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(4), pages 828-837.
    15. Karl M. Rich & Alex Winter-Nelson, 2007. "An Integrated Epidemiological-Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease: Applications to the Southern Cone of South America," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 682-697.
    16. Devadoss, Stephen & Holland, David W. & Stodick, Leroy & Ghosh, Joydeep, 2006. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Demand Shocks Arising from Mad Cow Disease in the United States," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 31(2), pages 1-13, August.
    17. Jerry R. Skees & Barry J. Barnett, 1999. "Conceptual and Practical Considerations for Sharing Catastrophic/Systemic Risks," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 424-441.
    18. Aadland, David, 2002. "Cattle Cycles, Expectations And The Age Distribution Of Capital," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19795, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. John Duncan & Robert J. Myers, 2000. "Crop Insurance under Catastrophic Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(4), pages 842-855.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stephane, 2014. "Farmers’ willingness to vaccinate against endemic animal diseases: A theoretical approach," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182780, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Longworth, Natasha & Jongeneel, Roel A. & Saatkamp, Helmut W., 2021. "Management of Disease-triggered Shocks in Complex Value Chains: An Ex Ante Analysis of Market Effects of HPAI Control in the Dutch Egg Supply Chain," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 12(03), September.
    3. Thomas, Alban & Lamine, Claire & Allès, Benjamin & Chiffoleau, Yuna & Doré, Antoine & Dubuisson-Quellier, Sophie & Hannachi, Mourad, 2020. "The key roles of economic and social organization and producer and consumer behaviour towards a health-agriculture-food-environment nexus: recent advances and future prospects," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 101(1), August.
    4. Thomas, Alban & Lamine, Claire & Allès, Benjamin & Chiffoleau, Yuna & Doré, Antoine & Dubuisson-Quellier, Sophie & Hannachi, Mourad, 2020. "The key roles of economic and social organization, producer and consumer behaviour towards a HAFEN (Health-Agriculture-Environment-Food Nexus)," TSE Working Papers 20-1068, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rault, Arnaud & Krebs, Stephane, 2011. "Livestock epidemics and catastrophic risk management: State of the art and prospects on economic dynamics," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114793, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Arnaud Rault & Stéphane Krebs, 2011. "Catastrophic risk and risk management, what do we know about livestock epidemics? State of the art and prospects," Working Papers SMART 11-05, INRAE UMR SMART.
    3. Peter R. Tozer & Thomas. L. Marsh & Evgeniy V. Perevodchikov, 2015. "Economic Welfare Impacts of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the Canadian Beef Cattle Sector," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 63(2), pages 163-184, June.
    4. Zhao, Zishun & Wahl, Thomas I. & Marsh, Thomas L., 2006. "Invasive Species Management: Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the U.S. Beef Industry," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 98-115, April.
    5. Xu, Yecheng & Zhang, Yaoqi & Chen, Jiquan & John, Ranjeet, 2019. "Livestock dynamics under changing economy and climate in Mongolia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Gramig, Benjamin M. & Horan, Richard D., 2011. "Jointly determined livestock disease dynamics and decentralised economic behavior," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 55(3), pages 1-18, September.
    7. Poddaturi, Dinesh Reddy & Hart, Chad E. & Schulz, Lee & Pouliot, Sébastien, 2020. "A Dynamic Model of U.S. Beef Cattle," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304577, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    8. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    9. Tong Wang & David A. Hennessy, 2015. "Strategic Interactions Among Private and Public Efforts When Preventing and Stamping Out a Highly Infectious Animal Disease," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(2), pages 435-451.
    10. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium approach," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122438, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2013. "Assessing the economic costs of a foot and mouth disease outbreak on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 97-107.
    12. Tozer, Peter & Marsh, Thomas, 2012. "Domestic and trade impacts of foot-and-mouth disease on the Australian beef industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(3), pages 1-20.
    13. Mangen, M. -J. J. & Burrell, A. M. & Mourits, M. C. M., 2004. "Epidemiological and economic modelling of classical swine fever: application to the 1997/1998 Dutch epidemic," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 37-54, July.
    14. Turvey, Calum G., 2003. "Conceptual Issues In Livestock Insurance," Research Reports 18171, Rutgers University, Food Policy Institute.
    15. Li, Yunhan & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 2021. "The Vanishing U.S. Cattle Cycle: A Stochastic Cycle Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 46(3), September.
    16. Kobayashi, Mimako & Melkonyan, Tigran A., 2011. "Strategic Incentives in Biosecurity Actions: Theoretical and Empirical Analyses," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 1-21, July.
    17. Gohin, Alexandre & Rault, Arnaud, 2012. "Assessing the economic costs of an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease on Brittany: A dynamic computable general equilibrium," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134712, Agricultural Economics Society.
    18. Hartarska, Valentina M. & Nadolnyak, Denis A., 2012. "Financing Constraints and Access to Credit in Post Crisis Environment: Evidence from New Farmers in Alabama," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124882, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. David A. Hennessy, 2007. "Behavioral Incentives, Equilibrium Endemic Disease, and Health Management Policy for Farmed Animals," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(3), pages 698-711.
    20. Callahan, Scott & Ifft, Jennifer & Michaud, Clayton P., 2022. "The impact of countercyclical farm programs on agricultural land values," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322579, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:33:y:2013:i:3:p:480-492. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.