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Re‐Examining the Consumption–Wealth Relationship: The Role of Model Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • GARY KOOP
  • SIMON M. POTTER
  • RODNEY W. STRACHAN
Abstract
This paper discusses the consumption–wealth relationship. We use data on consumption, assets, and labor income and a vector error correction framework. This framework defines a set of models that differ in the number of co‐integrating vectors, the form of deterministic components and lag length. Further models can be defined through parametric restrictions and, in particular, interest centers on a weak exogeneity restriction that says that the co‐integrating residuals do not affect consumption and income directly. Key results in previous work relate to the roles of permanent and transitory shocks in driving wealth and how consumption responds to these shocks. We investigate the robustness of these results to model uncertainty and argue for the use of Bayesian model averaging. We find that there is a large degree of model uncertainty. Whether this uncertainty has important empirical implications depends on the researcher's attitude toward the theory used to motivate a co‐integrating relationship between consumption, assets and income. If we work with models consistent with this theory and impose the weak exogeneity restriction, we find precisely estimated results that show that permanent shocks have only a small role in driving assets and that the predominant transitory shocks have little effect on consumption. These findings are consistent with the previous literature. However, if we work with a broader set of models and let the data speak, we find that the exact magnitude of the role of permanent shocks is hard to estimate precisely. Thus, although some support exists for the view that their role is small, we cannot rule out the possibility that they have a substantive role to play.

Suggested Citation

  • Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "Re‐Examining the Consumption–Wealth Relationship: The Role of Model Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2‐3), pages 341-367, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:2-3:p:341-367
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00116.x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Markus Jochmann & Gary Koop & Roberto Leon‐Gonzalez & Rodney W. Strachan, 2013. "Stochastic search variable selection in vector error correction models with an application to a model of the UK macroeconomy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 62-81, January.
    2. Chen, Jie, 2006. "Housing Wealth and Aggregate Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 2006:16, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    3. Jochmann Markus & Koop Gary, 2015. "Regime-switching cointegration," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 35-48, February.
    4. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
    5. Olivier Allain, 2011. "The impact of income distribution on consumption: a reassessment," Post-Print hal-00712657, HAL.
    6. Chen, Jie, 2006. "Re-evaluating the association between housing wealth and aggregate consumption: New evidence from Sweden," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 321-348, December.
    7. İşcan, Talan B., 2011. "Productivity growth and the U.S. saving rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 501-514.
    8. Frank Schmid, 2013. "Wealth Effects on Consumption in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(I), pages 87-110, March.
    9. Yang, Zan & Wang, S.T., 2012. "Permanent and transitory shocks in owner-occupied housing: A common trend model of price dynamics," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 336-346.
    10. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Van Roye, Björn & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim & Boss, Alfred & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2008. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2008," Kiel Discussion Papers 459/460, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Advances in Forecasting under Instability," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324, Elsevier.
    12. Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2014. "Country credit risk determinants with model uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 224-234.
    13. Márquez, Elena & Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2013. "Wealth shocks, credit conditions and asymmetric consumption response: Empirical evidence for the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 357-366.
    14. Justyna Wróblewska, 2009. "Bayesian Model Selection in the Analysis of Cointegration," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 57-69, March.
    15. Maltritz, Dominik, 2012. "Determinants of sovereign yield spreads in the Eurozone: A Bayesian approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 657-672.
    16. Maltritz, Dominik & Molchanov, Alexander, 2013. "Analyzing determinants of bond yield spreads with Bayesian Model Averaging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5275-5284.
    17. Ren, Yu & Yuan, Yufei & Zhang, Yang, 2014. "Human capital, household capital and asset returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 11-22.
    18. Mattias Villani, 2009. "Steady-state priors for vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 630-650.
    19. repec:rim:rimwps:26-08 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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