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Substitution and spill‐overs between early exit pathways in times of extending working lives in Europe

Author

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  • Aart‐Jan Riekhoff
  • Kati Kuitto
  • Liisa‐Maria Palomäki
Abstract
This article investigates to what extent instrument substitution between early exit pathways took place in Europe between 1995 and 2015. Using Eurostat aggregate data on labour market inactivity and employment rates among the population aged 55–64 in 19 European countries, we analyse substitution effects between pathways and overall spill‐over effects into non‐employment. In spite of a strong decline in early exit and rises in older workers’ employment rates, findings suggest that instrument substitution was common especially between early retirement and disability. Reductions in early exit coincided with considerable spill‐overs into non‐employment, yet these spill‐overs were limited when pathways contracted simultaneously. Cet article analyse dans quelle mesure l’instrument de substitution entre les différentes passerelles vers la retraite anticipée a été utilisé en Europe entre 1995 et 2015. En nous appuyant sur des données agrégées d’Eurostat relatives aux taux d’emploi et d’inactivité sur le marché du travail parmi la population âgée de 55 à 64 ans dans 19 pays européens, nous analysons les effets de la substitution entre les passerelles et les effets globaux d’entraînement vers le non‐emploi. Malgré un important déclin des départs à la retraite anticipés et une augmentation du taux d’emploi des travailleurs plus âgés, les conclusions de l’analyse suggèrent que la substitution était courante, en particulier entre la retraite anticipée et l’invalidité. La réduction des départs anticipés a coïncidé avec d’importants effets d'entrainement vers le non‐emploi, cependant ces effets se sont avérés limités car dans le même temps l’accès à ces passerelles a été restreint. En este artículo se analiza en qué medida se produjeron cambios entre las diferentes modalidades de jubilación anticipada en Europa entre 1995 y 2015. A partir de datos agregados de Eurostat sobre las tasas de inactividad en el marcado de trabajo y de empleo de la población de 55 a 64 años de edad en 19 países europeos, analizamos los efectos de los cambios de modalidad de jubilación y los efectos generales de la sustitución de dicha jubilación por el desempleo. A pesar de la fuerte disminución de las jubilaciones anticipadas y del aumento de la tasa de actividad de los trabajadores de edad avanzada, las conclusiones del análisis sugieren que los cambios han sido frecuente, en especial la sustitución de la jubilación anticipada por la discapacidad. Si bien la disminución de las jubilaciones anticipadas coincidió con numerosas sustituciones de jubilación por el desempleo, estos efectos disminuyeron al reducirse las diferentes modalidades de jubilación. In diesem Artikel wird untersucht, inwieweit Instrumentensubstitution unter Möglichkeiten zum frühen Austritt in Europa zwischen 1995 und 2015 zum Einsatz kam. Anhand von aggregierten Eurostat‐Daten über Nichterwerbsquoten und Beschäftigungsquoten unter der Bevölkerung von 55 bis 64 Jahren in 19 europäischen Staaten analysieren wir Substitutionseffekte zwischen Austrittswegen und Gesamtausstrahlungseffekte in die Nichterwerbstätigkeit. Trotz eines starken Rückgangs des vorzeitigen Ausscheidens und des Anstiegs der Beschäftigungsquote von älteren Arbeitnehmern weisen die Ergebnisse darauf hin, dass Instrumentensubstitution insbesondere zwischen Frührente und Invalidität geläufig war. Die Abnahme des frühen Ausscheidens fiel mit erheblichen Ausstrahlungseffekten in Nichterwerbstätigkeit zusammen. Dabei war diese Ausstrahlung jedoch geringer, wenn der Zugang zu alternativen Instrumenten gleichzeitig erschwert wurde. В этой статье исследуется уровень инструментального замещения между случаями раннего ухода с рынка труда, которое происходило в странах Европы в 1995‐2015гг. Используя обобщённые данные о неактивности рынка труда и уровнях занятости населения в 19 странах Европы в возрасте 55─64 лет, мы проведём анализ эффектов замещения между случаями ухода с рынка труда и эффектов перелива в сегмент незанятости. Несмотря на существенный спад в ситуации с ранним уходом с рынка труда и рост уровня занятости работников старшего возраста, результаты исследования дают основание полагать, что инструментальное замещение между собой особенно характерно для раннего выхода на пенсию и потери трудоспособности. Уменьшение количества случаев раннего ухода с рынка труда совпадает со значительным переливом в сегмент незанятости. Тем не менее, такие переливы были ограничены тогда, когда случаи ухода с рынка труда одновременно сокращались. 本文调查了欧洲1995至2015年各个早退路径之间在何种程度上发生了工具性替代。我们利用欧洲统计局针对19个欧洲国家55至64岁人口的劳动市场不活跃率与就业率所得出的汇总数据, 分析了各个路径之间的替代效应与进入非就业状态的整体溢出效应。尽管早退比率大幅下降而较年长工作者的就业率有所提升, 调查发现工具性替代相当普遍, 特别是在提早退休与残疾两者之间。早退率的降低与大量工作者进入非就业业状态相吻合。然而, 当诸多路径同时收窄时, 这些溢出便变得有限。 يدرس هذا المقال مدى حدوث استبدال الأدوات بين مختلف إمكانيات التقاعد المبكر بين 1995 و2015. وباستخدام البيانات المجمعة للمكتب الإحصائي للجماعات الأوروبية بشأن ركود أسواق العمل ومعدلات البطالة في أوساط السكان البالغة أعمارهم بين 55 و64 عاماً في 19 بلداً أوروبياً، قمنا بتحليل آثار الاستبدال بين إمكانيات التقاعد المبكر والآثار الإجمالية على البطالة. وعلى الرغم من الانخفاض الكبير في معدلات التقاعد المبكر والزيادة في معدلات نشاط العمال الأكبر سناً، تبين النتائج أن استبدال الأدوات هو أمر شائع لا سيما بين التقاعد المبكر والإعلان عن العجز. وتزامنت حالات الانخفاض في التقاعد المبكر مع تفاقم البطالة، في حين ثبت أن البطاله تنحسر عندما تتزامن الحالتان فقط. Este artigo investiga até que ponto instrumentos de substituição entre planos de saída precoce do mercado de trabalho ocorreram na Europa entre 1995 e 2015. A partir de dados agregados do Eurostat sobre inatividade do mercado de trabalho e taxas de emprego na população entre 55 e 64 anos em 19 países europeus, analisamos os efeitos da substituição de planos e os efeitos em geral das vantagens subsidiárias na situação de não‐emprego. Apesar de um forte declínio em saída precoce do mercado de trabalho e dos aumentos das taxas de emprego dos trabalhadores mais velhos, os levantamentos sinalizam que a substituição do instrumento era comum, especialmente entre aposentadoria precoce e casos de invalidez. As reduções em saída precoce do mercado de trabalho coincidiram com as consideráveis vantagens subsidiárias no não‐emprego, embora tais vantagens subsidiárias fossem limitadas no caso de planos contratados simultaneamente.

Suggested Citation

  • Aart‐Jan Riekhoff & Kati Kuitto & Liisa‐Maria Palomäki, 2020. "Substitution and spill‐overs between early exit pathways in times of extending working lives in Europe," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(2), pages 27-50, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:intssr:v:73:y:2020:i:2:p:27-50
    DOI: 10.1111/issr.12237
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    1. Bengtsson, Mats & König, Stefanie & Schönbeck, Simon & Wadensjö, Eskil, 2022. "Leaving the Labor Market Early in Sweden – Learning from International Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 15327, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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