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The Commodity Super Cycle: Is This Time Different?

Author

Listed:
  • Canuto, Otaviano

    (World Bank)

Abstract
Some analysts believe that the commodity price boom of the new millennium has played itself out. However, natural resource–based commodity prices (with the exception of shale gas and its downward pressure on U.S. natural gas prices) have remained high by historical records over the last few years, despite the feeble global economic recovery (Canuto 2014). The commodity price spike that started at the end of the 1990s has not been significantly affected by the global downturn, with average prices similar to 2008 levels (figure 1). Indeed, commodity prices have occasionally shown signs of reviving more quickly than the global economic output level (figure 2). So the question is: Have we entered a phase of descending commodity prices? This note argues that it may be too soon to say that the commodity super-cycle phenomenon is a thing of the past.

Suggested Citation

  • Canuto, Otaviano, 2014. "The Commodity Super Cycle: Is This Time Different?," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 150, pages 1-3, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:prmecp:ep150
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    File URL: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTPREMNET/Resources/EP150.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David S. Jacks, 2019. "From boom to bust: a typology of real commodity prices in the long run," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(2), pages 201-220, May.
    2. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
    3. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Canuto, Otaviano, 2010. "Natural Resources and Development Strategy after the Crisis," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 1, pages 1-7, February.
    4. Arezki, Rabah & Hadri, Kaddour & Loungani, Prakash & Rao, Yao, 2014. "Testing the Prebisch–Singer hypothesis since 1650: Evidence from panel techniques that allow for multiple breaks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 208-223.
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    Cited by:

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    2. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    3. Akinsola Motunrayo O. & Odhiambo N. M., 2022. "The Impact of Oil Price on Economic Growth in Middle-Income Oil-Importing Countries: A Non-Linear Panel ARDL Approach," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 29-48, September.
    4. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    5. Ehrlich, Lars & Wolf, André, 2015. "Determinanten und Risiken der Energiepreisentwicklung und ihre Implikationen für den städtischen Verkehr: Studie für die Hamburger Hochbahn AG," HWWI Policy Papers 93, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    6. Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang, 2015. "Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy: An Overview," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang (ed.),Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy, edition 1, volume 22, chapter 1, pages 001-018, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. World Bank Group, 2015. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 : Having Fiscal Space and Using It," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 20758.
    8. Strauss, Ilan & Yang, Jangho, 2021. "Slowing investment rates in developing economies: Evidence from a Bayesian hierarchical model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • Q3 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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