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Modeling Hidden Alternatives in Random Utility Models: An Application to "Don’t Know" Responses in Contingent Valuation

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  • Steven B. Caudill
  • Peter A. Groothuis
Abstract
Wedevelop a multinomial logitmodel with missing information that can be used to test for hidden alternatives in random utility models and contingent valuation analysis. To illustrate our latentchoice technique, we focus on the “don’t know” responses in dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions. In this version of the latent-choice model, we probabilistically reassign “don’t know” responses to either the “yes” or “no” categories (or leave them in the “don’t know” category), if indicated by the data. We find that in our two studies a statistically significant number of the “don’t know” responses are actually “no” responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven B. Caudill & Peter A. Groothuis, 2005. "Modeling Hidden Alternatives in Random Utility Models: An Application to "Don’t Know" Responses in Contingent Valuation," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:81:y:2005:i:3:p445-454
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    5. Peter Groothuis & John Whitehead, 2002. "Does don't know mean no? Analysis of 'don't know' responses in dichotomous choice contingent valuation questions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(15), pages 1935-1940.
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    8. Peter Boxall & Wiktor Adamowicz, 2002. "Understanding Heterogeneous Preferences in Random Utility Models: A Latent Class Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 23(4), pages 421-446, December.
    9. Steven B. Caudill & Mercedes Ayuso & Montserrat Guillén, 2005. "Fraud Detection Using a Multinomial Logit Model With Missing Information," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 539-550, December.
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    11. Mary F. Evans & Nicholas E. Flores & Kevin J. Boyle, 2003. "Multiple-Bounded Uncertainty Choice Data as Probabilistic Intentions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(4), pages 549-560.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kilgore, Michael A. & Snyder, Stephanie A. & Schertz, Joseph & Taff, Steven J., 2008. "What does it take to get family forest owners to enroll in a forest stewardship-type program?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(7-8), pages 507-514, October.
    2. Peter A. Groothuis & Tanga A. Mohr & John C. Whitehead & Kristan A. Cockerill & William P. Anderson, Jr. & Chuanhui Gu, "undated". "The Influence of Scientific Information on the Willingness to Pay for Stormwater Runoff Abatement," Working Papers 17-05, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    3. Peter A. Groothuis & Tanga M. Mohr & John C. Whitehead & Kristan Cockerill, 2015. "Payment and Policy Consequentiality in Contingent Valuation," Working Papers 15-04, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    4. Kelvin Balcombe & Iain Fraser, 2009. "Dichotomous-choice contingent valuation with 'dont know' responses and misreporting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1137-1152.
    5. Groothuis, Peter A. & Cockerill, Kristan & Mohr, Tanga McDaniel, 2015. "Water does not flow up hill: determinants of willingness to pay for water conservation measures in the mountains of western North Carolina," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 88-95.
    6. Kristin Cockerill & Pete Groothuis & Tanga Mohr & Courtney Cooper, 2014. "Individual water: Water source as an indicator of attitudes about water management and conservation in rural regions," Working Papers 14-04, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    7. Peter A. Groothuis & Tanga M. Mohr & John C. Whitehead & Kristan Cockerill & William P. Anderson, Jr. & Chuanhui Gu, 2020. "Measuring the Direct and Indirect Effect of Scientific Information On Valuing Stormwater Management Programs: A Hybrid Choice Model," Working Papers 20-02, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    8. Gillespie, Jeffrey & Lewis, Darius, 2008. "Processor Willingness to Adopt a Crawfish Peeling Machine: An Application of Technology Adoption under Uncertainty," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 369-383, April.
    9. Steven B. Caudill & Peter A. Groothuis & John C. Whitehead, 2006. "Testing for Hypothetical Bias in Contingent Valuation Using a Latent Choice Multinomial Logit Model," Working Papers 06-09, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    10. Groothuis, Peter A. & Groothuis, Jana D. & Whitehead, John C., 2008. "Green vs. green: Measuring the compensation required to site electrical generation windmills in a viewshed," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1545-1550, April.
    11. Peter A. Groothuis & Jana D. Groothuis & John C. Whitehead, 2006. "The Willingness to Pay to Remove Billboards and Improve Mountain Views," Working Papers 06-04, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University.
    12. Fenichel, Eli P. & Lupi, Frank & Hoehn, John P. & Kaplowitz, Michael D., 2006. "Split-Sample Tests Of "Don'T Know" And "Indifferent" Responses In An Attribute Based Choice Model," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21070, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    13. Gordillo, Fernando & Elsasser, Peter & Günter, Sven, 2019. "Willingness to pay for forest conservation in Ecuador: Results from a nationwide contingent valuation survey in a combined “referendum” – “Consequential open-ended” design," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 28-39.
    14. Kim, Seon-Ae & Gillespie, Jeffrey M. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2008. "Rotational grazing adoption in cattle production under a cost-share agreement: does uncertainty have a role in conservation technology adoption?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(3), pages 1-18.
    15. Eli P. Fenichel & Frank Lupi & John P. Hoehn & Michael D. Kaplowitz, 2009. "Split-Sample Tests of "No Opinion" Responses in an Attribute-Based Choice Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(2), pages 348-362.
    16. Groothuis, Peter A. & Whitehead, John C., 2009. "The Provision Point Mechanism and Scenario Rejection in Contingent Valuation," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 271-280, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources

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