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Globalization and the growing defects of international economic statistics

Author

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  • Lukas Linsi
  • Daniel K. Mügge
Abstract
Official international economic statistics are generally considered accurate and meaningful gauges of cross-border flows of trade and capital. Most data users also assume that the quality of the underlying data keeps improving over time. Through an extensive review of the national accounting literature, archival research, two dozen interviews with high-level statisticians, and a series of data quality tests, we evaluate this common view for the primary source of data on trade and capital flows: the International Monetary Fund’s Balance of Payments (BOP) Statistics. Our assessment paints a less rosy picture: reported figures are far less accurate than they are typically imagined to be and often do not correspond to the theoretical concepts with which users associate them. At the same time, measurement quality deteriorates over time as the transnationalization of economic production gradually undermines the validity of BOP statistics. Our findings raise serious questions about the widespread use of these numbers, with their deceptive pretense to accuracy, in scholarly research and public debate about the international political economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Linsi & Daniel K. Mügge, 2019. "Globalization and the growing defects of international economic statistics," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(3), pages 361-383, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rripxx:v:26:y:2019:i:3:p:361-383
    DOI: 10.1080/09692290.2018.1560353
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    Cited by:

    1. Saila Stausholm & Petr Janský & Marek Šedivý, 2022. "Illicit financial flows and country-by-country reporting in extractive industries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-76, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Claudius Gräbner-Radkowitsch & Dennis Tamesberger & Philipp Heimberger & Timo Kapelari & Jakob Kapeller, 2022. "Trade Models In The European Union," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 67(235), pages 7-36, October –.
    3. Wang, Delu & Chen, Fan & Mao, Jinqi & Liu, Nannan & Rong, Fangyu, 2022. "Are the official national data credible? Empirical evidence from statistics quality evaluation of China's coal and its downstream industries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Linsi, Lukas & Hopkin, Jonathan & Jaupart, Pascal, 2023. "Exporting inequality: US investors and the Americanization of executive pay in the United Kingdom," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113543, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Ergen, Timur & Kohl, Sebastian & Braun, Benjamin, 2021. "Firm foundations: The statistical footprint of multinational corporations as a problem for political economy," MPIfG Discussion Paper 21/5, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    6. Herkenhoff, Philipp & Sauré, Philip, 2021. "How expected inflation distorts the current account and the valuation effect," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Konstantin M. Wacker, 2020. "Differences in measuring FDI: do they matter for our economic conclusions?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Bridging measurement challenges and analytical needs of external statistics: evolution or revolution?, volume 52, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Matti Ylönen & Wolfgang Drechsle & Veiko Lember, . "Online incorporation platforms in Estonia and beyond: How administrative spillover effects hamper international taxation," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    9. Mike Seiferling, 2020. "Apples, oranges and lemons: public sector debt statistics in the 21st century," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, December.
    10. Weixin Yang & Hao Gao & Yunpeng Yang, 2022. "Analysis of Influencing Factors of Embodied Carbon in China’s Export Trade in the Background of “Carbon Peak” and “Carbon Neutrality”," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-20, March.
    11. Timm Betz & Amy Pond & Weiwen Yin, 2021. "Investment agreements and the fragmentation of firms across countries," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 755-791, October.
    12. Claudius Graebner & Stephan Puehringer, 2021. "Competition universalism: Its historical origins and timely alternatives," ICAE Working Papers 125, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    13. Jean-François Hennart & Dylan Sutherland, 2022. "International business research: The real challenges are data and theory," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(9), pages 2068-2087, December.
    14. Baccaro, Lucio & Hadziabdic, Sinisa, 2022. "Operationalizing growth models," MPIfG Discussion Paper 22/6, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.

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