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Macroeconomic variables and long-term stock market performance. A panel ARDL cointegration approach for G7 countries

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Humpe
  • David G. McMillan
  • Mariam Camarero
Abstract
Based on the present value model for stock prices, we utilise a pooled mean group estimator for panel ARDL cointegration to estimate the long-run relationship between G7 stock prices and macroeconomic variables over the last 40 years. We find a positive long-run relation between stock prices, industrial production and consumer prices as well as a negative relationship with real 10-year interest rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Humpe & David G. McMillan & Mariam Camarero, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and long-term stock market performance. A panel ARDL cointegration approach for G7 countries," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1816257-181, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:1816257
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2020.1816257
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    Cited by:

    1. Guan, Lu & Zhang, Wei-Wei & Ahmad, Ferhana & Naqvi, Bushra, 2021. "The volatility of natural resource prices and its impact on the economic growth for natural resource-dependent economies: A comparison of oil and gold dependent economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Andreas Humpe & David McMillan, 2020. "The Covid-19 stock market puzzle and money supply in the US," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 3104-3110.
    3. Karamti, Chiraz & Jeribi, Ahmed, 2023. "Stock markets from COVID-19 to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Structural breaks in interactive effects panels," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    4. Prem Vaswani & Padmaja M, 2023. "Asymmetric relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and stock market performance: a study of the Indian stock market," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(4), pages 1887-1895.
    5. Bouzgarrou, Houssam & Ftiti, Zied & Louhichi, Waël & Yousfi, Mohamed, 2023. "What can we learn about the market reaction to macroeconomic surprise? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Rajabrata Banerjee & Tony Cavoli & Ron McIver & Shannon Meng & John K. Wilson, 2023. "Predicting long‐run risk factors of stock returns: Evidence from Australia," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 377-395, September.

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