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In Search Of The Average Transnational Terrorist Attack Venue

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantinos Drakos
  • Andreas Gofas
Abstract
In this paper we develop an empirical model for transnational terrorist activity for a panel consisting of 139 countries over the period 1985-1998. Essentially, we attempt to sketch the profile of the average terrorist attack venue. Our findings suggest that the terrorist attack venue is, on average, characterized by low economic openness, high demographic stress, and a high level of international disputes. Furthermore, we document a strong regional component suggesting the presence of infectious contagion on a spatial level. Our results also support the presence of addictive contagion captured by a strong autoregressive component in each country's terrorist activity. Finally, we find a weak statistical link between the level of democracy and terrorist activity, although the level of democracy is a significant determinant of the potential under-reporting bias of terrorist activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos Drakos & Andreas Gofas, 2006. "In Search Of The Average Transnational Terrorist Attack Venue," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 73-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:17:y:2006:i:2:p:73-93
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690500445387
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cameron, A Colin & Trivedi, Pravin K, 1986. "Econometric Models Based on Count Data: Comparisons and Applications of Some Estimators and Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(1), pages 29-53, January.
    2. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-938, July.
    3. Alan B. Krueger & Jitka Maleckova, 2002. "Education, Poverty, Political Violence and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?," NBER Working Papers 9074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. repec:pri:rpdevs:krueger_maleckova_education_poverty_political.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Winkelmann, Rainer & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1995. "Recent Developments in Count Data Modelling: Theory and Application," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, March.
    6. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    7. repec:pri:rpdevs:krueger_maleckova_education_poverty_political is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
    9. Sandler, Todd & Tschirhart, John T. & Cauley, Jon, 1983. "A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 77(1), pages 36-54, March.
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