[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/9894.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations

Author

Listed:
  • Fajgelbaum,Pablo David
  • Goldberg,Pinelopi Koujianou
  • Kennedy,Patrick
  • Khandelwal,Amit Kumar
  • Taglioni,Daria
Abstract
This paper studies global trade responses to the US-China trade war. It estimates the tariffimpacts on product-level exports to the US, China, and rest of world. On average, countries decreased exports to Chinaand increased exports to the US and rest of world. Most countries export products that complement the US andsubstitute China, and a subset operate along downward-sloping supplies. Heterogeneity in responses,rather than specialization, drives export variation across countries. Surprisingly, global trade increased in theproducts targeted by tariffs. Thus, despite ending the trend towards tariff reductions, the trade war did not halt globaltrade growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Fajgelbaum,Pablo David & Goldberg,Pinelopi Koujianou & Kennedy,Patrick & Khandelwal,Amit Kumar & Taglioni,Daria, 2022. "The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9894, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9894
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/735611641482672239/pdf/The-US-China-Trade-War-and-Global-Reallocations.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Novy, Dennis, 2013. "International trade without CES: Estimating translog gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 271-282.
    2. Chaney, Thomas & Ossa, Ralph, 2013. "Market size, division of labor, and firm productivity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 177-180.
    3. Werner Antweiler & Daniel Trefler, 2002. "Increasing Returns and All That: A View from Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 93-119, March.
    4. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Kyle Handley & Fariha Kamal & Ryan Monarch, 2020. "Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism," Working Papers 676, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    6. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    7. Nelson Lind & Natalia Ramondo, 2023. "Trade with Correlation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(2), pages 317-353, February.
    8. Hiau Looi Kee & Alessandro Nicita & Marcelo Olarreaga, 2008. "Import Demand Elasticities and Trade Distortions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 666-682, November.
    9. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
    10. Rodrigo Adao & Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson, 2017. "Nonparametric Counterfactual Predictions in Neoclassical Models of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 633-689, March.
    11. Aaditya Mattoo & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta, 2020. "Handbook of Deep Trade Agreements," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34055.
    12. Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Margaret Kyle & Heidi Williams, 2019. "The More We Die, The More We Sell? A Simple Test of the Home-Market Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 843-894.
    13. Konstantin Kucheryavyy & Gary Lyn & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2023. "Grounded by Gravity: A Well-Behaved Trade Model with Industry-Level Economies of Scale," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 372-412, April.
    14. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    15. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    16. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2021. "Import liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1779, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Amit K. Khandelwal, 2016. "Measuring the Unequal Gains from Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(3), pages 1113-1180.
    18. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    19. Ahn, JaeBin & Khandelwal, Amit K. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2011. "The role of intermediaries in facilitating trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 73-85, May.
    20. Robert C. Feenstra & David E. Weinstein, 2017. "Globalization, Markups, and US Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1040-1074.
    21. Dominick Bartelme & Arnaud Costinot & Dave Donaldson & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, "undated". "The Textbook Case for Industrial Policy: Theory Meets Data," Working Papers 675, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
    22. Miguel Almunia & Pol Antràs & David Lopez-Rodriguez & Eduardo Morales, 2021. "Venting Out: Exports during a Domestic Slump," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(11), pages 3611-3662, November.
    23. Lorenzo Caliendo & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2012. "The Impact of Trade on Organization and Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(3), pages 1393-1467.
    24. Amit K. Khandelwal & Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, 2022. "The Economic Impacts of the US–China Trade War," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 205-228, August.
    25. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    26. Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2016. "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1632-1662, July.
    27. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    28. Michael E. Waugh, 2019. "The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks: Evidence from the US-China Trade War," NBER Working Papers 26353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
    30. Kyle Handley & Fariha Kamal & Ryan Monarch, 2020. "Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism," NBER Working Papers 26611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/312fvs95ub8ct80ng4em8fjifb is not listed on IDEAS
    32. JaeBin Ahn & Alexander F. McQuoid, 2017. "Capacity Constrained Exporters: Identifying Increasing Marginal Cost," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1175-1191, July.
    33. Aaron Flaaen & Ali Hortaçsu & Felix Tintelnot, 2020. "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 2103-2127, July.
    34. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2010. "External Economies and International Trade Redux," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(2), pages 829-858.
    35. Mike Waugh, 2019. "The Consumption Response to Trade Shocks," 2019 Meeting Papers 1226, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    36. Aaron Flaaen & Justin R. Pierce, 2019. "Disentangling the Effects of the 2018-2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-086, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    37. Ahmad Lashkaripour & Volodymyr Lugovskyy, 2017. "National Differentiation and Industry-Wide Scale Effects," CAEPR Working Papers 2017-004, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    38. Thomas Chaney & Ralph Ossa, 2013. "Market Size, Division of Labor, and Firm Productivity," SciencePo Working papers hal-03579667, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Leona Shao-Zhi Li & Yize Liu & Jia Yuan, 2024. "The effect of the U.S.–China trade war on Chinese corporate innovation: A curse or a blessing?," Working Papers 202418, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry, 2023. "Globalization: Uncoupled or unhinged?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 685-692.
    3. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2021. "The Effects of Climate Change on Labor and Capital Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 28995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hâle Utar & Alfonso Cebreros Zurita & Luis Bernardo Torres Ruiz & Hale Utar, 2023. "The US-China Trade War and the Relocation of Global Value Chains to Mexico," CESifo Working Paper Series 10638, CESifo.
    5. Wei, Hao & Tu, Yue & Zhou, Peng, 2023. "Technical barriers to trade and export performance: Comparing exiting and staying firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Lastauskas, Povilas & Proškutė, Aurelija & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2023. "How do firms adjust when trade stops?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 287-307.
    7. Berend Diekmann & Michael Kilpper, 2022. "Zollkrieg und Handelsabkommen zwischen den USA und China [Four Years of Tariff War and Two Years of Phase-One Agreement Between the U. S. and China — Has it Worked for the U. S.?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(3), pages 204-209, March.
    8. TAKEDA Shiro & HIGASHIDA Keisaku & YOMOGIDA Morihiro, 2024. "Evaluation of the Impacts of Trade Restrictions between China and Japan," Discussion papers 24072, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2021. "Import liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1779, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. Steinbach, Sandro, 2022. "Port congestion, container shortages, and U.S. foreign trade," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    11. Christoph Albert & Paula Bustos & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2024. "The effects of climate change on labor and capital reallocation," Economics Working Papers 1887, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    12. Blanga-Gubbay, Michael & Rubínová, Stela, 2023. "Is the global economy fragmenting?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2023-10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    13. Ilkova, Ivelina & Lebastard, Laura & Serafini, Roberta, 2024. "Geopolitics and trade in the euro area and the United States: de-risking of import supplies?," Occasional Paper Series 359, European Central Bank.
    14. Afontsev, S., 2022. "Political paradoxes of economic sanctions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 193-198.
    15. Ciani, Andrea & Mau, Karsten, 2023. "Delivery times in international competition: An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    16. Fessina, Massimiliano & Zaccaria, Andrea & Cimini, Giulio & Squartini, Tiziano, 2024. "Pattern-detection in the global automotive industry: A manufacturer-supplier-product network analysis," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    17. Shota Miki & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2024. "On the Restructuring of Global Semiconductor Supply Chains," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 24-E-6, Bank of Japan.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ma, Hong & Ning, Jingxin & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2021. "An eye for an eye? The trade and price effects of China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2021. "Import liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1779, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Haoyuan Ding & Bo Pu & Tong Qi & Kai Wang, 2022. "Valuation effects of the US–China trade war: The effects of foreign managers and foreign exposure," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(3), pages 662-683, July.
    4. Karin Mayr-Dorn & Gaia Narciso & Duc Anh Dang & Hien Phan, 2023. "Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war," Economics working papers 2023-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    5. Sanyal, Anirban, 2023. "Caught in the Crossfire: How Trade Policy Uncertainty Impacts Global Trade," EconStor Preprints 272825, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. James Lake & Jun Nie, 2022. "The 2020 US Presidential Election and Trump's Trade War," CESifo Working Paper Series 9669, CESifo.
    7. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. Huang, Yi & Lin, Chen & Liu, Sibo & Tang, Heiwai, 2023. "Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    9. Pol Antràs, 2020. "De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age," NBER Working Papers 28115, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. He, Chuan & Mau, Karsten & Xu, Mingzhi, 2021. "Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions: Evidence from Vacancy Postings of Chinese Firms in the Trade War," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Esposito, Federico, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," MPRA Paper 99875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Che, Yi & Lu, Yi & Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K. & Tao, Zhigang, 2022. "Did trade liberalization with China influence US elections?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    13. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Deseatnicov, Ivan, 2023. "The impact of the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports of dual-use goods," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 160-179.
    14. Lukas Boer & Lukas Menkhoff & Malte Rieth, 2023. "The multifaceted impact of US trade policy on financial markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 388-406, April.
    15. Hong Ma & Lingsheng Meng, 2023. "Heterogeneous impacts of the Section 301 tariffs: Evidence from the revision of product lists," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(1), pages 164-190, February.
    16. Rodrigo Adão & Costas Arkolakis & Federico Esposito, 2019. "General Equilibrium Effects in Space: Theory and Measurement," NBER Working Papers 25544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. He, Chuan & Mau, Karsten & Xu, Mingzhi, 2021. "Trade Shocks and Firms Hiring Decisions:," Research Memorandum 001, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    18. Hoste, J. & Verboven, F., 2024. "Uncovering the Sources of Cross-border Market Segmentation: Evidence from the EU and the US," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2402, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Xavier Jaravel & Erick Sager, 2018. "What are the Price Effects of Trade? Evidence from the U.S. and Implications for Quantitative Trade Models," Economic Working Papers 506, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    20. Daniel Carroll & Sewon Hur, 2023. "On The Distributional Effects Of International Tariffs," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1311-1346, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade and Trade Rules; Armed Conflict; Transport Services; Food Security; Energy and Mining;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9894. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.