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Trillions Gained and Lost: Estimating the Magnitude of Growth Episodes

Author

Listed:
  • Pritchett, Lant

    (Center for Global Development, Washington, DC and Harvard University)

  • Sen, Kunal

    (University of Manchester and)

  • Kar, Sabyasachi

    (Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi)

  • Raihan, Selim

    (University of Dhaka)

Abstract
We propose and implement a new technique for measuring the total magnitude of a growth episode: the change in output per capita resulting from one structural break in the trend growth of output (acceleration or deceleration) to the next. The magnitude of the gain or loss from a growth episode combines (a) the difference between the post-break growth rate versus a counter-factual "no break" growth rate and (b) the duration of the episode to estimate the difference in output per capita at the end of an episode relative to what it would have been in the "no break" scenario. We use three "counter-factual" growth rates that allow for differing degrees of regression to global average growth: "no change" (zero regression to the mean), "world episode average" (full regression to the mean) and "unconditional predicted growth" (which uses a regression for each growth episode to predict future growth based only on past growth and episode initial level). We can also calculate the net present value at the start of an episode of the gain or loss in output comparing the actual evolution of output per capita versus a counter-factual. This method allows us to place dollar figures on growth episodes. The top 20 growth accelerations have Net Present Value (NPV) magnitude of 30 trillion dollars--twice US GDP. Conversely, the collapse in output in Iran between 1976 and 1988 produced an NPV loss of $143,000 per person. The top 20 growth decelerations account for 35 trillion less in NPV of output. Paraphrasing Lucas, once one begins to think about what determines growth events that cause the appearance or disappearance of output value equal to the total US economy, it is hard to think about anything else.

Suggested Citation

  • Pritchett, Lant & Sen, Kunal & Kar, Sabyasachi & Raihan, Selim, 2014. "Trillions Gained and Lost: Estimating the Magnitude of Growth Episodes," Working Paper Series rwp14-016, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp14-016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Peruzzi & Alessio Terzi, 2018. "Growth Accelerations Strategies," Growth Lab Working Papers 112, Harvard's Growth Lab.
    2. Selim Raihan & Sabyasachi Kar & Kunal Sen, 2018. "Transitions between growth episodes: Do institutions matter and do some institutions matter more?," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-099-18, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    3. Giovanni Dosi & Federico Riccio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2022. "Specialize or diversify? And in What? Trade composition, quality of specialization, and persistent growth [Catching up, forging ahead, and falling behind]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 301-337.
    4. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    5. Kunal Sen & Sabyasachi Kar & Jagadish Prasad Sahu, 2014. "The political economy of economic growth in India, 1993-2013," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-044-14, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    6. Lant Pritchett, 2018. "Alleviating Global Poverty: Labor Mobility, Direct Assistance, and Economic Growth," Working Papers 479, Center for Global Development.
    7. James Malley & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Jim Malley, 2023. "Stimulating Long-Term Growth and Welfare in the U.S," CESifo Working Paper Series 10658, CESifo.
    8. Millemaci, Emanuele & Monteforte, Fabio & Temple, Jonathan R. W., 2023. "Have autocrats governed for the long term?," SocArXiv w8khb, Center for Open Science.
    9. Stefan Pahl & Marcel P. Timmer, 2019. "Patterns of vertical specialisation in trade: long-run evidence for 91 countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(3), pages 459-486, August.
    10. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    11. Peruzzi, Michele & Terzi, Alessio, 2021. "Accelerating Economic Growth: The Science beneath the Art," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    12. Sabyasachi Kar & Selim Raihan & Kunal Sen, 2017. "Do economic institutions matter for growth episodes?," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-092-17, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    13. Andersson, Martin, 2018. "Resilience to Economic Shrinking: A Social Capability Approach to Processes of Catching up in the Developing World 1951-2016," Lund Papers in Economic History 183, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    14. Jean‐Marc B. Atsebi, 2024. "Igniting growth surges: Lessons from the past," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(2), pages 525-569, April.
    15. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor & Bart Verpagen, 2019. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in long run time series," LEM Papers Series 2019/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    16. Kunal Sen & Lant Pritchett & Sabyasachi Kar & Selim Raihan, 2016. "Democracy versus dictatorship? The political determinants of growth episodes," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-070-16, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    17. Douglas A. Irwin, 2019. "Does Trade Reform Promote Economic Growth? A Review of Recent Evidence," Working Paper Series WP19-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    18. Man, Georg, 2015. "Competition and the growth of nations: International evidence from Bayesian model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 491-501.
    19. Andersson, Martin & Julia, Juan P. & Palcio Ch., Andrés F., 2021. "Resilience to economic shrinking as the key to economic catch-up: A social capability approach," Lund Papers in Economic History 231, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    20. Jakob de Haan & Kersten Stamm & Shu Yu, 2024. "Drivers of Investment Accelerations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11100, CESifo.
    21. Douglas A. Irwin, 2023. "Economic ideas and Taiwan's shift to export promotion in the 1950s," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(4), pages 969-990, April.
    22. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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