[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/awe/wpaper/332.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Looking for a Break: Identifying transitions in growth regimes

Author

Listed:
  • Sabyasachi Kar
  • Lant Pritchett
  • Selim Raihan
  • Kunal Sen

    (Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi)

Abstract
Economic growth in developing countries is characterised by frequent shifts in growth regimes. Following Pritchett (2000), there is a large empirical literature that has tried to identify the timing of these shifts in economic growth. Two distinct approaches have been developed by this literature. The first is a 'filter-based' approach that identifies growth breaks on the basis of subjectively defined rules, while the second approach is based on statistical structural break tests. The first approach is ad hoc and lacks consistency across studies, while the Bai-Perron method, which is the basis of the statistical approach, has low power and cannot discern true breaks in growth. In this paper, we propose a unified approach that combines the filter and statistical approaches and avoids the limitations of each approach. Applying our approach to comparable GDP per capita data for 125 countries for the period 1950–2010, we are able to identify a much larger number of plausible breaks in GDP per capita than a pure statistical approach. More importantly, our approach is able to identify more breaks from countries with volatile growth paths—and hence has a larger proportion of breaks from developing countries than other studies that use the pure statistical method of Bai-Perron.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabyasachi Kar & Lant Pritchett & Selim Raihan & Kunal Sen, 2013. "Looking for a Break: Identifying transitions in growth regimes," IEG Working Papers 332, Institute of Economic Growth.
    • Handle: RePEc:awe:wpaper:332
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iegindia.org/upload/publication/Workpap/wp332.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Rodrik, Dani, 1999. "Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 385-412, December.
    4. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2008. "The Anatomy of Start-Stop Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 582-587, August.
    5. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
    6. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 323-351, March.
    7. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    8. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
    9. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    10. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    11. Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2006. "Empirics of hills, plateaus, mountains and plains: A Markov-switching approach to growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 357-385, December.
    12. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    13. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "Technological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, March.
    14. Corbae,Dean & Durlauf,Steven N. & Hansen,Bruce E. (ed.), 2006. "Econometric Theory and Practice," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521807234, September.
    15. Ricardo Hausmann & Rodrigo Wagner & Francisco Rodriguez, 2006. "Growth Collapses," CID Working Papers 136, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    16. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November.
    17. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 221-250, May.
    18. Romer, Paul M., 1990. "Human capital and growth: Theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 251-286, January.
    19. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kerekes, Monika, 2007. "Analyzing patterns of economic growth: a production frontier approach," Discussion Papers 2007/15, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Koopman, Eline & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Drivers of growth accelerations: What role for capital accumulation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Jerzmanowski, Michal & Cuberes, David, 2011. "Medium Term Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions," MPRA Paper 94273, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jul 2011.
    4. Pritchett, Lant & Sen, Kunal & Kar, Sabyasachi & Raihan, Selim, 2016. "Trillions gained and lost: Estimating the magnitude of growth episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 279-291.
    5. Kevin S. Nell & Maria M. De Mello, 2019. "The interdependence between the saving rate and technology across regimes: evidence from South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 269-300, January.
    6. Francesco Lamperti & Clara Elisabetta Mattei, 2016. "Going Up and Down: Rethinking the Empirics of Growth in the Developing and Newly Industrialized World," LEM Papers Series 2016/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2014. "Long run time series tests of constant steady-state growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 464-474.
    8. Francesco Lamperti & Clara Elisabetta Mattei, 2018. "Going up and down: rethinking the empirics of growth in the developing and newly industrialized world," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 749-784, September.
    9. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.
    10. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    11. Grinis, Inna, 2017. "Trend growth durations & shifts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85126, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Sabyasachi Kar & Selim Raihan & Kunal Sen, 2017. "Do economic institutions matter for growth episodes?," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-092-17, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    13. Voxi Heinrich Amavilah & Antonio Rodríguez Andrés, 2024. "Knowledge Economy and the Economic Performance of African Countries: A Seemingly Unrelated and Recursive Approach," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(1), pages 110-143, March.
    14. Sen, Kunal, 2013. "The Political Dynamics of Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 71-86.
    15. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    16. Peruzzi, Michele & Terzi, Alessio, 2021. "Accelerating Economic Growth: The Science beneath the Art," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    17. Erdenebat Bataa, 2019. "Growth and Inflation Regimes in Greater Tumen Initiative Area," The Northeast Asian Economic Review, ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia, vol. 7(1), pages 15-29, November.
    18. Andros Kourtellos & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2022. "Robust Correlates of Growth Spells: Do Inequality and Redistribution Matter?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(6), pages 1302-1328, December.
    19. Aikaterini Kokkinou, 2005. "Entrepreneurship, Innovation Activities and Regional Growth," ERSA conference papers ersa05p419, European Regional Science Association.
    20. Bertrand Gruss & Malhar Nabar & Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, 2020. "Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: External Conditions and Domestic Amplifiers," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 753-786, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; growth regimes; structural breaks; Bai-Perron;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:awe:wpaper:332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iegggin.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.