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State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Julian Hinz
  • Amrei Stammann
  • Joschka Wanner
Abstract
We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary choice models and study the corresponding incidental parameter problem. The standard maximum likelihood estimator is consistent under asymptotics where all panel dimensions grow at a constant rate, but it has an asymptotic bias in its limiting distribution, invalidating inference even in situations where the bias appears to be small. Thus, we propose two different bias-corrected estimators. Monte Carlo simulations confirm their desirable statistical properties. We apply these estimators in a reassessment of the most commonly studied determinants of the extensive margin of trade. Both true state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity contribute considerably to trade persistence and taking this persistence into account matters significantly in identifying the effects of trade policies on the extensive margin.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian Hinz & Amrei Stammann & Joschka Wanner, 2020. "State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade," Papers 2004.12655, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2004.12655
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani & Ulf Johansen & Maitri Thakur & Thomas Glauben, 2024. "Salmon trade duration: The application of firm‐level trade transaction data from the Norwegian salmon industry," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 325-348, April.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "Explaining German outward FDI in the EU: a reassessment using Bayesian model averaging and GLM estimators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 487-511, February.
    3. Weidner, Martin & Zylkin, Thomas, 2021. "Bias and consistency in three-way gravity models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei & Wanner, Joschka, 2021. "Worth the pain? Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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