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Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Brandao-Marques, Luis
  • Harjes, Thomas
  • Sahay, Ratna
  • Xue, Yi
  • Gelos, Gaston
Abstract
The effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in emerging markets and developing countries (EMDEs) remains subject to considerable debate in academia and among policymakers. Can EMDEs effectively steer inflation and output by controlling short-term interest rates? Or do structural features of these economies, in particular a lack of financial market depth, hinder such transmission? We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà ’s (2005) approach for 39 EMDEs to answer these questions. We find that interest rate hikes do reduce output growth and inflation, if the exchange rate is allowed to adjust. Inflation targeting frameworks adopted by independent and transparent central banks matter more than structural features, such as financial development.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandao-Marques, Luis & Harjes, Thomas & Sahay, Ratna & Xue, Yi & Gelos, Gaston, 2021. "Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 15931, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15931
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    Cited by:

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    2. Guénette, Justin Damien & Kose, M. Ayhan & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "Is a Global Recession Imminent?," MPRA Paper 114627, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Davide Furceri & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2021/018, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Jingwen Huo & Jing Meng & Heran Zheng & Priti Parikh & Dabo Guan, 2023. "Achieving decent living standards in emerging economies challenges national mitigation goals for CO2 emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "Bank regulations and surges and stops in credit: Panel evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Arnold Segawa, 2021. "Sentimental Outlook for the Monetary Policies of South African Reserve Bank," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(3), pages 37-56, July.
    7. María Fernanda Meneses-González & Angélica María Lizarazo-Cuellar & Diego Fernando Cuesta-Mora & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez, 2022. "Financial Development and Monetary Policy Transmission," Borradores de Economia 1219, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Mr. David J Hofman & Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Mr. Pragyan Deb & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Umang Rawat & Itaru Yamamoto, 2020. "Intervention Under Inflation Targeting--When Could It Make Sense?," IMF Working Papers 2020/009, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Fayyaz Hussain & Mehak Ejaz, 2022. "Effectiveness of the Exchange Rate Channel in Monetary Policy Transmission in Pakistan (Article)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 45-67.
    10. Marwa Elsherif, 2024. "Modelling Inflation Dynamics and Global Oil Price Shocks in OAPEC Countries: TVP-VAR," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 51-69, May.
    11. Dridi, Ichrak & Boughrara, Adel, 2023. "Flexible inflation targeting and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging market economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Fu, Liang & Ho, Chun-Yu, 2022. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates under China's evolving monetary policy framework," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. Vanessa Olakemi Dovonou, 2023. "Trilemma revisited with dollar dominance in trade and finance," Working Papers 2023.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Emerging markets; Exchange rate channel; Inflation targeting; Financial structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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