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Crises in Emerging Markets Economies: A Global Perspective

In: Current Account and External Financing

Author

Listed:
  • Guillermo A. Calvo

    (Columbia University)

Abstract
The paper argues that global financial factors played an important role in the capital-inflow episode in Emerging Market economies (EMs), during the early part of the 1990s, and clearly in the Sudden Stop (of capital inflows) crises that took place after the 1998 Russian crisis. Moreover, the paper shows that recovery after crises that exhibit large output loss (more than 5 percent of GDP from peak to trough) occurs in a Phoenix-like fashion: little credit or investment is required. These results strongly suggest that: (1) deep financial crises can be prevented or at least largely alleviated and (2) global institutions and arrangements should be high on the policy agenda. The paper then discusses an Emerging Market Fund (EMF) charged with the task of lowering the incidence of contagion in EM bond prices. In addition, the paper analyzes domestic policies and concludes that they are critical and important in making EMs less vulnerable to shocks but are unlikely to succeed in fully shielding these economies from global financial shocks if not supported by arrangements like the EMF. Finally, two sections of the paper are devoted to discussing some current issues regarding applicable theory and econometrics.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo A. Calvo, 2008. "Crises in Emerging Markets Economies: A Global Perspective," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Kevin Cowan & Sebastián Edwards & Rodrigo O. Valdés & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt- (ed.),Current Account and External Financing, edition 1, volume 12, chapter 3, pages 085-115, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchsb:v12c03pp085-115
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2002. "Financial markets in times of stress," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 451-470, December.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Globalization Hazard and Delayed Reform in Emerging Markets," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-31, January.
    3. Molina, Danielken & Roa, Monica, 2014. "The Effect of Credit on the Export Performance of Colombian Exporters," MPRA Paper 56137, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Sudden Stops in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model with Credit Constraints: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," 2005 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kevin Cowan & José De Gregorio, 2007. "International Borrowing, Capital Controls, and the Exchange Rate: Lessons from Chile," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 241-296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2006. "Are asset price guarantees useful for preventing Sudden Stops?: A quantitative investigation of the globalization hazard-moral hazard tradeoff," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 84-119, June.
    8. Arvind Panagariya, 2004. "Miracles and Debacles: In Defence of Trade Openness," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(8), pages 1149-1171, August.
    9. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    10. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    11. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
    12. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    13. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi & Guillermo A. Calvo, 2002. "Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons," Research Department Publications 4299, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    14. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
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    17. repec:rus:hseeco:123906 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Guillermo A. Calvo & Ernesto Talvi, 2005. "Sudden Stop, Financial Factors and Economic Collpase in Latin America: Learning from Argentina and Chile," NBER Working Papers 11153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2003. "El rumbo de las reformas. Hacia una nueva agenda para América Latina," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    20. Calvo, Guillermo A, 2001. "Capital Markets and the Exchange Rate with Special Reference to the Dollarization Debate in Latin America," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 312-334, May.
    21. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2005. "Emerging Capital Markets in Turmoil: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033348, April.
    22. John Williamson, 1994. "The Political Economy of Policy Reform," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 68, April.
    23. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-51, May.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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