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From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Anton Korinek
  • Enrique G. Mendoza
Abstract
The 1990s Sudden Stops in emerging markets were a harbinger for the 2008 global financial crisis. During Sudden Stops, countries lost access to credit, causing abrupt current account reversals, and suffered Great Recessions. This paper reviews a class of models that yields quantitative predictions consistent with these observations, based on an occasionally binding credit constraint that limits debt to a fraction of the market value of incomes or assets used as collateral. Sudden Stops are infrequent events nested within regular business cycles, and occur in response to standard shocks after periods of expansion increase leverage ratios sufficiently. When this happens, the Fisherian debt-deflation mechanism is set in motion, as lower asset or goods prices tighten further the constraint causing further deflation. This framework also embodies a pecuniary externality with important implications for macro-prudential policy, because agents do not internalize how current borrowing decisions affect collateral values during future financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 19362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19362
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    13. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," SciencePo Working papers hal-03391984, HAL.
    14. Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles & Gabriel Tenorio, 2017. "Managing Capital Flows in the Presence of External Risks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1213, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Salih Fendoglu, 2016. "Credit cycles and macroprudential policy framework in emerging countries," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 17-25, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Korinek, Anton & Kreamer, Jonathan, 2014. "The redistributive effects of financial deregulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 55-67.
    17. Reyes-Heroles, Ricardo & Tenorio, Gabriel, 2020. "Macroprudential policy in the presence of external risks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    18. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Philippon, Thomas & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2016. "The analytics of the Greek crisis: celebratory centenary issue," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67368, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Gurbachan Singh, 2015. "Possible Market for Credit Lines to Mitigate Sudden Stop: Theory and Policy," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 4(2), pages 205-232, December.
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    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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