Abstract
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is produced by basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific, with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide. In the past, extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies. A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmosphere models has been formulated; in terms of their complexity, they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models (ICMs), hybrid coupled models (HCMs), and fully coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). ENSO modeling has made signifiscant progress over the past decades, reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance. Meanwhile, ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature, which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models, presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling. We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China; some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications, which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently. As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc., dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements. Now, different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China, which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling, including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Nevertheless, large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions, and there are clear rooms for their improvements, which are still an active area of researches and applications. Here, model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models, pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies. These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.
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Data Availability Statement
Except for Fig.3, all figures and tables in the paper are created by the authors (the figures plotted by using the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) which is available at http://www.iges.org/grads/grads.html). The data and computer codes used in the paper are available from the authors (rzhang@qdio.ac.cn).
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The authors wish to thank the three anonymous reviewers for their comments that helped to improve the original manuscript.
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Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Nos. 2017YFC1404102, 2017YFC1404100), the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos. XDB 40000000, XDB 42000000), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41690122(41690120), 41705082, 41421005), the Shandong Taishan Scholarship, and the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Nos. 2018M640659, 2019M662453); YU Yongqiang is jointly supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Nos. XDA 19060102, XDB 42000000); REN Hong-Li is jointly supported by the China National Science Foundation (No. 41975094) and the China National Key Research and Development Program on Monitoring, Early Warning and Prevention of Major Natural Disaster (No. 2018YFC1506004)
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Zhang, RH., Yu, Y., Song, Z. et al. A review of progress in coupled ocean-atmosphere model developments for ENSO studies in China. J. Ocean. Limnol. 38, 930–961 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-020-0157-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00343-020-0157-8