What would college sports be without some controversy and disagreement over rankings?
It sure seems like committee is dead-set on limiting the SEC to four slots, when in reality there are six teams right now that probably deserve a slot. Ole Miss and Alabama should cruise to 10-2. Will Georgia-Tennessee be an elimination game? And could Texas-Texas A&M be an elimination game? Finally, making the SEC Championship game seems like it will be a curse, not a blessing... as there is a good chance the loser could be dropped from the playoff if they already have two losses. But there is still plenty of football to play and I'm sure we'll see plenty more surprises before the season is done.
1) Oregon (9-0, LW #1, CFP #1): The number one overall seed is theirs to lose. Wisconsin and Washington probably won't offer much resistance and then it's on the Big Ten Championship.
2) Ohio State (7-1, LW #4, CFP #2): I don't like it any more than you do... but if Ohio State gets by Indiana in a couple weeks, the Buckeyes will get a rematch against Oregon for the conference title... and the winner will most likely get the number one seed in the CFP.
3) BYU (9-0, LW #5, CFP #6): Another week, another razor-thin close call for BYU. ESPN only gives them a 61% chance to win *at home* against Kansas this week and a 51% chance on the road the following week at Arizona State. But as long as they continue to defy the odds, I feel like I have to keep them up here.
4) Tennessee (8-1, LW #6, CFP #7): Let's be honest. The entire Tennessee resume right now is beating Alabama. Kentucky, Oklahoma, and Florida just aren't that impressive. I don't know if Georgia is a "must-win" game but it's starting to feel pretty close to it.
5) Alabama (7-2, LW #8, CFP #10): Alabama easily survived an elimination game on the road at night against LSU, and they now have four ranked wins (yes, three are in the 21-25 range). I'm not sure Tennessee will have an argument to stay ahead of Alabama with a second loss, despite owning the H2H advantage.
6) Ole Miss (8-2, LW #15, CFP #11): I've doubted Ole Miss all season, but there is no denying they got an impressive win against Georgia. Road wins against South Carolina and Arkansas will help too. But their early season home loss to Kentucky is going to be a big red mark against them in CFP discussions.
7) Georgia (7-2, LW #2, CFP #12): Ole Miss tossed the Bulldogs around. But their only two losses are against potential playoff teams and they still have a win over Texas (also Clemson, but the shine is definitely off there).
8) Notre Dame (8-1, LW #7, CFP #8): The Irish seem likely to cruise to a playoff spot if they can get by Army, although the season finale at USC could be a little tricky. A road win at Texas A&M is a nice card to have, because their resume is thin aside from a win over Louisville. And obviously the home loss to NIU will weigh against them.
9) Texas A&M (7-2, LW #9, CFP #15): The earlier win over LSU is less impressive now, but (along with beating Missouri) it's still more impressive than any Texas win. I'm surprised the committee is treating Texas A&M so harshly right now.
10) Texas (8-1, LW #11, CFP #3): The Longhorns handled Florida easily. Next up is a trip to Fayetteville, where Arkansas will be coming off a bye week. As you can tell, I still don't buy them being so high in the CFP rankings when their best win is Vandy.
11) Miami (9-1, LW #3, CFP #9): It seemed inevitable and Miami finally lost to an unranked team. But they still have decent road wins against Florida and Louisville.
12) Penn State (8-1, LW #10, CFP #4): Feeling like a broken record, but it's wild to me that Penn State is ranked so high. Their best "statistical" win is over USC (FPI #18 but sitting at 4-5) and the closest they have to a ranked win is against Illinois (grand total of two votes in the coaches poll, none in AP). So even though they were impressive enough against Washington, I need to move them down a couple more spots.
13) Indiana (10-0, LW #13, CFP #5): The Hoosiers had a tougher time than hoped against Michigan, in what was probably their highest-ranked win so far... which unfortunately shows why I still have them ranked so low as an undefeated team. Now they get a week off to prepare for Ohio State.
14) SMU (8-1, LW #14, CFP #14): Who would have imagined that the early season matchup against BYU was going to feature the eventual leaders of the ACC and Big 12? And now SMU has a relatively smooth path to the ACC championship game.
15) LSU (6-3, LW #12, CFP #22): LSU got embarrassed at home by Alabama. But they still have quality wins to fall back on (at South Carolina, Ole Miss), unlike many of the teams behind them.
16) South Carolina (6-3, LW #20, CFP #21): South Carolina won comfortably at Vanderbilt which follows a huge win over Texas A&M. South Carolina could be dark horses to make a sneaky rise into the fringes of playoff contention if they win out (Missouri, Clemson).
17) Missouri (7-2, LW #21, CFP #23): They snuck by Oklahoma and now have a tough test at South Carolina.
18) Boise State (8-1, LW #16, CFP #13): Same story as before. Just keep winning.
19) Washington State (8-1, LW #17, CFP #18): Weak schedule. They won't get much attention unfortunately. Their one "quality" win (Washington) doesn't mean much this year.
20) Louisville (6-3, LW #23, CFP #19): Idle last week. Hoping for some help to get to the ACC Championship game, but it's not looking very likely.
21) Clemson (7-2, LW unranked, CFP #20): Clemson finally got a decent win (at Virginia Tech). Welcome to the rankings!
22) Kansas State (7-2, LW #24, CFP #16): Idle last week. Relatively tough finish to the season with Arizona State, Cincinnati, and Iowa State. They probably need to win out to make the Big 12 championship.
23) Iowa State (7-2, LW #18, CFP unranked): With the Kansas loss, Iowa State has now dropped two in a row after starting off 7-0. For some reason, the metrics say Kansas isn't that bad even though their record is 3-6. Iowa State does have a road win at Iowa, which is better than most of the remaining teams can claim (not saying much obviously).
24) Colorado (7-2, LW unranked, CFP #17): Sure, why not have another 7-2 Big 12 team here?
25) Army (9-0, LW #25, CFP #24): Until they beat someone, I can't move them up any further. If they beat Notre Dame? Who knows, maybe top ten??
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