I think most people are willing to rank Oregon #1 and Georgia #2 right now. But - at least for me - it feels like there is very little separating the resumes for #3 all the way down to #14 or #15. One big win or one bad loss could have a huge impact on rankings in this group. But easy wins or close "good" losses don't move the needle too much.
This weekend's slate is a little light with only five games between ranked teams... and only one has a spread of less than ten points. So outside of major upsets, we shouldn't expect to see any big swings in the polls next week. But I guess we should always expected the unexpected, right?
1) Oregon (7-0, LW #1, AP #1): Outside of Ohio State, Oregon has feasted on lower-ranked opposition the last five weeks. Illinois followed by trips to Michigan and Wisconsin will be marginally tougher this month. They can probably afford a slip-up and safely to make the CFP. But if they follow that up with a blowout loss in the Big Ten Championship...things could get a little dicey.
2) Georgia (6-1, LW #5, AP #2): Does going 2-1 against top teams (Clemson, Alabama, Texas) outweigh Oregon's 1-0 record against similar teams? Some would argue yes. Personally I think Clemson and Texas are currently overrated, so I'm willing to give Oregon the edge for now.
3) Miami (7-0, LW #8, AP #6): The Hurricanes passed their biggest test to date (at Louisville) but once again needed a little luck (or help from the refs depending on your view). Wins against Florida, Virginia Tech, and Louisville stack up pretty favorably against the other remaining undefeated teams.
4) BYU (7-0, LW #4, AP #11): It was nervy against Oklahoma State but they still got it done. Three of their next four are on the road and I have a hard time believing they'll make it through unscathed. But their resume (Kansas State, SMU) is decent at this point.
5) Penn State (6-0, LW #3, AP #3): Can Penn State ever really be trusted as a "top" team? Basically they're a better version of Iowa. They don't lose games they shouldn't, but they rarely get those "big" wins either. They'll have the chance to prove themselves over the next couple weeks with a warmup visit to Wisconsin and then a big trip to Ohio State.
6) LSU (6-1, LW #9, AP #8): The Tigers got a nice win on the road at Arkansas and now they travel to Texas A&M with Alabama visiting the week after. If they win both of those, LSU easily belongs in the top five (if not top three).
7) Texas A&M (6-1, LW #6, AP #14): Speaking of Texas A&M... I've struggled a bit on where to place them. It doesn't feel like they're a great team, but their resume is pretty good (wins over Florida, Arkansas, Missouri vs. early loss to Notre Dame). Obviously we'll find out more about them this weekend. The Aggies' schedule isn't too tough after that until they finish at home against Texas.
8) Iowa State (7-0, LW #7, AP #10): Probably a better team than BYU. But their resume remains underwhelming... Iowa is still their best win. Their season-ending showdown with Kansas State looms large if they can avoid any slip-ups before then.
9) Tennessee (6-1, LW #13, AP #7): The cigars came out this weekend and it was beautiful to see. We have an extra week to enjoy the win and for the team to rest up. The Vols can probably afford one loss the rest of the way (most likely Georgia) but that's probably it.
10) Ohio State (5-1, LW #11, AP #4): I don't understand how the Buckeyes are #4 right now. They haven't beaten anyone. Iowa State has the same best win (Iowa) with no losses, and the voters have Iowa State at #10.
11) Pitt (6-0, LW #12, AP #19): They don't really have a quality win at the moment. But they still have to play SMU, Clemson, and Louisville... so the opportunity is there.
12) Notre Dame (6-1, LW #14, AP #12): Objectively speaking, the Irish probably have one of the best pairs of wins in the country (at Texas A&M, Louisville). But I struggle with how much to punish them for losing at home to NIU. If they win out, fine... they should be in the playoff. But one more slip-up and I think you have to give them the boot.
13) Alabama (5-2, LW #10, AP #15): Can't punish them too much for losing a close one of the road in a deafening environment. Missouri is coming to town this weekend and then they travel to Baton Rouge. If they split those two and then run the table, you might still see them on the fringes of the CFP discussion (especially if Georgia wins out).
14) Texas (6-1, LW #2, AP #5): Suddenly the Texas resume is looking like a house of cards. Michigan and Oklahoma simply aren't as good as we thought.
15) Kansas State (6-1, LW #16, AP #16): This team could easily be 10-1 heading into a de facto playoff game at Iowa State to close the regular season. They are arguably the best team in the Big 12, but the early loss to BYU has put them behind the sticks.
16) Indiana (7-0, LW #15, AP #13): Maybe their most impressive game to date in dismantling Nebraska...but Indiana's schedule has been woeful so far. It doesn't too much tougher for the next couple weeks, but they eventually have Michigan and Ohio State. They were very fortunate to avoid five of the six other top teams in the conference this year, as they don't play Oregon, Penn State, USC, Wisconsin, or Iowa.
17) Illinois (6-1, LW #23, AP #20): Michigan has now officially gone from national champion to also-ran after losing to Illinois. The Illini have a chance to shake things up this week by going into Oregon and stealing a win.
18) Missouri (6-1, LW #22, AP #21): Picked up a decent win over Auburn. Can they keep the momentum going at a reeling Alabama this week?
19) SMU (6-1, LW #19, AP #22): If they can get by Duke (away) and Pitt the following week, SMU could easily end up 11-1 as they'll be heavily favored in their remaining three games after that.
20) Boise State (5-1, LW #17, AP #17): If they win out, they should get the group of five CFP slot. But Navy or Army could make things interesting.
21) Washington State (6-1, LW #18, AP #26): Unfortunately for Washington State, their schedule is pretty weak from here on out. Hard to imagine them being in the CFP conversation at season-end.
22) Ole Miss (5-2, LW unranked, AP #18): A bunch of teams at the bottom of my top 25 from last week lost, so somebody had to move up. The metrics say this is an excellent team, but the results haven't been there.
23) Vanderbilt (5-2, LW unranked, AP #25): If they hadn't lost to Georgia State, I think you could make a real case for Vanderbilt being in the top ten. But alas...
24) Navy (6-0, LW #24, AP #24): They play Notre Dame this weekend. Can you imagine if they win? Undefeated with a top 15 win... potential top ten resume in my book. It's not gonna happen, but it'd be cool if it did...
25) Army (7-0, LW #25, AP #23): Small gripe, but I'm not sure why the polls have Army over Navy. Probably irrelevant after this week though. If Navy doesn't take down Notre Dame, Army will get their own chance a couple weeks later.
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