Tuesday, May 27, 2014
How well do teams draft?
Pizza suggests that they do a good job in the first round, but after that, he can't spot much, if any, correlation between signing bonus and eventual career WAR.
Minors_College
Minors_College
Friday, April 25, 2014
Newark Bears auction
I don't think it's location, so much as quality and competition.
But Spiel did not blame city and county governments for the team’s failure. There were many factors, he said, but one above all: “There’s a resistance to come to the inner city to watch baseball.”
It's one mile up the street from The Rock (where the Devils play), and half a mile from NJPAC (performing arts center). When you are this close to high quality, plus the Mets and Yankees across the river, it's hard to sell anyone on a third-rate league. I just don't know what kind of consumer you would attract.
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• 2014/04/25
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Minors_College
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Instead of sharing revenue, why don’t MLB teams use value of draft position?
?Beane is basically asking that question:
“I ultimately think what replaces the draft should be based on revenue, and that you shouldn’t be rewarded for poor performance,” Beane said. “If you think about it, the draft is the only time that a team like Tampa, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, or us, the draft is the only time these teams have access to the really star-caliber players. Because the industry is much better now at selecting the star players. They come at the top of the draft. We win the division, but it would be nice to still be in the top 10, to draft where the Lincecums come, and the Poseys come.”
In other words, let's say that the Yankees are giving the Rays 20MM$ right now. (I don't know what the numbers are, let's just go with it.) But let's also say that the difference in value of picking #5 and #25 is 20MM$. (Again, just pulling out of my b-tt.)
So, we can still have the same amount of revenue sharing between teams, but instead of actual dollars, it's the value of draft picks. And so, by going with Beane's idea, and having teams draft based on revenue, you end up transferring the same amount.
BUT.... how would you like to be the Yankees and know that you will always have the #30 pick? I would think the Yanks prefer the "cost certainty" of whatever they pay in, rather than the "loss certainty" of never being able to have a crack at the best.
That said, Beane's idea could work if you spread the picks around. Say that a bottom-revenue team over the past five years will have picks #1, 4, 7, 10, 13 (or something, at some point, in some way over the next 5 years). And you do this for all the teams. But you also work in that say the top 10 revenue teams will have a "draft" for their picks, making sure that one of the top 3 picks over the next 5 years is reserved for them.
In other words, look at how past drafts have been assigned relative to revenue, and make sure your new model keeps that consistent. I hope that made sense to at least one aspiring saberist.
(All numbers for illustration purposes only.)
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Value of Baseball America rankings
?Neil rolls up his sleeves, and takes a look at how Baseball America ranks, with respect to future WAR. If Neil were to have only plotted from about 40-onwards, maybe 50-onwards, it looks like he probably would have gotten a flat line. Meaning that there's really no distinction between the 50th ranked player and the 100th ranked player. Maybe Neil can chime in here with his data, and report back at what point is it flat.
UPDATE: Here's an old thread on the same topic.
Friday, March 14, 2014
How good are these minor league ranking lists?
?This is what I'd like an aspiring saberist to do. Check out the minor league rankings by the various list-makers back in... I dunno... 2006? And add up the WAR for each player accumulated in MLB since 2006 (assigned to the team they were on in 2006). How does the actual team-level WAR compare to the forecasted rankings?
Basically, when a list-maker puts a team #1 and another team #30, what does this mean in reality? That team #1 is a .510 team in talent? .610 team? .710 team? What exactly?
Friday, December 27, 2013
Could a team draft solely on the Baseball America rankings?
?Andrew compares the results from Baseball America relative to the actual picks.
One thing to note: presumably, Baseball America is talking to each team's scouts (I'm guessing). So, it's not that BA is giving us an independent evaluation, but might be more likely considered to be a Crowdsourcing system. Basically, all these list-makers are lists of lists (of lists). Maybe one team, or two teams might be able to live with not having any scout, and simply feed off the work of the scouts of other teams (via Baseball America). But, eventually, you need a certain number of teams to provide "boots on the ground".
Thursday, December 05, 2013
Alternative to the posting system
If what I am reading is correct (maximum post bid is 20MM$), this means that every team is going to make a max post. Which basically makes any player that is worth at least 21MM$ an automatic free agent. (You agree to post 20MM$, if you end up signing him, so you must think he's worth at least 21MM$. And, there's no penalty to negotiating with a player and not signing him.) You could just as equivalently, and more easily, simply make the player a free agent from the outset, free to negotiate with anyone, and then, the team that signs him pays a commission of 25% to his Japanese team. Last year for example, Darvish would have negotiated for 88MM$, and the Rangers would have paid 22MM$ commission to his old team. (Either way, old system or my proposal, Rangers pay 110MM$.) And you can make it more creative. If a player has one year to go until pure free agency, the Japanese team gets 10% commission if the player opts out one year early. If he opts out two years early, they get 25% commission. Three years early? 40% commission. Four years? 60%. Five years? 80%. Six years 100% (i.e., dollar for dollar). I just don't see the purpose, or value, of a two-stage process.Monday, September 16, 2013
A-ball relievers with crazy high K/BB ratio
Sam notes that you don't get much success from this group.
I went back to 2006 looking for pitchers who met all of the following criteria:
•23 or younger in High-A or full-season A-Ball, or 22 or younger in a short-season league; •Pitched at least 20 innings, with at least two-thirds of his appearances coming in relief; •At least 4.5 Ks per walk in High-A, at least 5.0 K/BB in full-season A, or at least 6.0 K/BB in short-season A or rookie ball.
...
if we limit it to pitchers between 2006 and 2009, then 15 of 70 have made it [to the majors]. Those 15 can be split into two camps: Justin Masterson, and not Justin Masterson.
The other 14 have produced 0.9 WARP in the majors, combined, in about 1,000 innings. Not one has a career WARP total as high as 1.0.
WARP is not a good stat for pitchers, since it relies on FRA, a metric that I have discarded from my arsenal. But Sam gave us the list of pitchers, and, it's clear from that list (plus the other 55 who did not make it to the majors), we're talking about substantially replacement-level pitching at best.
Sam notes:
Part of the problem with these seasons is that the very premise of “kicks butt as A-ball reliever” is “A-ball reliever,” and good prospects don’t get dumped into the reliever bucket so soon. The most important datum at that level is often what the clubs themselves are telling us: what round they pick him, how much money they give him to sign, where they assign him, and what role he has. For most of these types, including Law, the data from the club are all bad.
Fun fact: in 1983, Roger Clemens for the Class A team had 36K and zero walks (though he did hit one batter). ?
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Minors_College
Friday, September 13, 2013
Pre-Japan Balentien v Pre-Japan Fielder
Bill James pointed out that Balentien and Fielder had the same number of opps in MLB before going to Japan. Balentien had 559 plate appearances (PA) and Fielder 558.
So, I looked, and here are the similarities: Balentien had 47 extra base hits to Fielder's 52. Balentien had 44 walks to Fielder's 46. Balentien had 149 K to Fielder's 144. Balentien GIDP 15 times to Fielder's 17. SB-CS numbers are 2-2 to 0-2. And they both had their last pre-Japan MLB time at bat shortly after their 25th birthday.
Tuesday, September 03, 2013
Forecasting injuries of pitchers based on college usage
A wonderful research piece by Dustin. He does a very good job ?in controlling for pitcher quality by focusing only on top draft picks (top 15 starting pitchers of each draft for 7 drafts). He does a good job in showing injury rates in short-term and medium-term. He breaks down the pitchers in buckets, so we can follow along easily.
And we basically see nothing. This should open up the door for a more robust handling, more comprehensive look. And Dustin has laid out the groundwork in terms of both approach in research and in presentation of the details.
Just a great piece.
Friday, August 23, 2013
Luhnow’s strikeouts
More great work that shows bias in drafting methods.?
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• 2013/08/24
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Minors_College
Friday, July 26, 2013
Luhnow’s K/BB ratio
Astros blogger looks into how the Astros pitchers do in the minor leagues, and they point out that the lower level you go (i..e, more chance that Luhnow's guys are being represented), then the better the pitchers' K/BB ratio.?
Thursday, July 11, 2013
Two-way player in Japan
Story of Otani.
These transfer agreements seem... odd. What would stop Otani from leaving Japan, joining an independent league in America for a year, and then declare himself available? to any MLB team?
The NHL has special rules for players by age. Article 9.1.b shows that there are limits to the entry-level system (equivalent to pre-arb period in MLB) based on age. So a guy who plays his first game at age 25 or older is not subject to the entry-level compensation system. For European players, that goes up to age 28.
Furthermore, Article 8.4 talks about the entry draft, and if you've been selected twice before, you are no longer subject to the entry draft. Or, if you are 22 years old and never been previously selected, you are a free agent.
Does anyone know how it works for NBA?
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Manny leaves Taiwan for Japan
Manny's three-month contract is about to expire, and it looks like he's headed for the bright lights? of Japan.
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Minors_College
Thursday, June 13, 2013
MLB draft signings
And we're off! Jonathan Gray is being reported as signed.?
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Minors_College
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
How much value does a spot on the 40-man roster have?
Dave is suggesting that it has some value. The question therefore is: how much??
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• 2013/06/14
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Minors_College
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Does going back into the draft help or hurt?
?Great research by Dustin. Focus on the % improved, % declined. Really good work.
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Minors_College
Friday, June 07, 2013
Astros and Appel
Dave does a good job of laying out the Astros' options. I don't think he noted, but if the Astros don't sign him, they get a bonus pick at #2 overall.?
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• 2013/06/10
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Minors_College
Draft 2013
Baseball America has the top players available, after Day 1.?
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