Training_Health
?There should be no argument. The prosthetic is a part of him.
?Didn't Jeff take a good look at this? In this research, they suggest possibly different conclusions.
However, that research seems consistent with this:
1. A certain percentage of pitchers don't come back (say 20%)
2. Of those that do come back, half don't get back to the same spot, while the other half match their prior output
Maybe Jeff can chime in with results.
By the way, I very much liked their control group, so we can have something to compare against that also uses random variation.
Oh, and given the huge difference in how pitchers perform as SP and RP, that would be a critical variable to track too.
?A good story by Chass on Weiner and the disease.
A wonderful research piece by Dustin. He does a very good job ?in controlling for pitcher quality by focusing only on top draft picks (top 15 starting pitchers of each draft for 7 drafts). He does a good job in showing injury rates in short-term and medium-term. He breaks down the pitchers in buckets, so we can follow along easily.
And we basically see nothing. This should open up the door for a more robust handling, more comprehensive look. And Dustin has laid out the groundwork in terms of both approach in research and in presentation of the details.
Just a great piece.
Yeah, sure, I guess, but if you are going to have a hypothesis, don't use as your #1 guy the 41-yr old hockey player who trains more than everyone else. It's like saying not to chase outside pitches, and then bring up Vladimir Guerrero. That you need to have multiple pitches to be successful, and then say "Mariano Rivera". Or that you'll be out of baseball without a fastball at least 90mph, and then talk about Arroyo.
There was a triple OT game, where in-between the second and third OT, veteran Ray Bourque got undressed, and in the middle of the locker room, started doing pushups. And then he announced to everyone else: "Ok, I'm ?ready for another period. How about you guys?"
At the same time, following the Islanders 4th Cup in four years (a 4-0 sweep), the Oilers (Gretzky, Messier and a few others) went over to the Islanders dressing room to congratulate them. All the Islanders players were bandaged up, and not really happy. Gretzky turned to his guys and they agreed that if the Oilers had to keep playing, they could easily keep playing. The Islanders instead left it all on the ice. They had nothing more to give. Gretzky said that seeing the Islanders is what made them take that next step, to give even more than they ever have. Whether that's just hindsight or not, the Oilers once again faced the Islanders the next year, but this time the Oilers won the Cup, and they never looked back.
So, it's hard to say for any single player whether the player is over- or under-training. Whether they are leaving too much in the tank, or expending too much. Whether they are leveraging their skills in an optimal or sub-optimal manner. You can talk in general terms with some large groups.
But picking out single players is foolish. You can't extrapolate anything with n=1. Just accept that more likely than not, a player at his peak has figured out what he needs to do to stay there or get better.
Just a matter of time? until it goes to the upper levels, pros.
And possibly even beyond pitchers for the kids in the lower levels.
Leitch talks to O'Leary:
But it speaks to how bewildering the world of pitcher injuries is—and how desperate teams are for any sliver of understanding—that the Nats reached out to him. “It turns out that he or someone in their organization heard me talking on the radio to a D.C. station about Strasburg, and he actually commissioned a study to look at my conclusions on the inverted W,” O’Leary says. “It is not a hugely rigorous study, but the gist of what he told me is, ‘I see what you see in terms of the relationship between arm action and injury rates.’?” O’Leary says he’s going out to D.C. to give a presentation to Douoguih and other medical professionals in May. ?
?If I am reading Pizza Cutter's chart correctly, it shows that a pitcher who had an injury last year (T-1) has a 73% chance of an injury this year (year T). But, of those with no injury in T-1, they had only a 5% chance of injury in year T. If I had to guess, I would have set those numbers to 60% and 20%, or 70% and 30%, something like that.
| Condition | Similar Event Last Year | No Similar Event Last Year |
| Had an elbow injury | 27.40% | 2.00% |
| Had a shoulder injury | 32.40% | 2.80% |
| Had any injury | 73.40% | 5.10% |
| Spent time on DL | 43.70% | 4.90% |
Nov 23 14:15
Layered wOBAcon
Nov 22 22:15
Cy Young Predictor 2024
Oct 28 17:25
Layered Hit Probability breakdown
Oct 15 13:42
Binomial fun: Best-of-3-all-home is equivalent to traditional Best-of-X where X is
Oct 14 14:31
NaiveWAR and VictoryShares
Oct 02 21:23
Component Run Values: TTO and BIP
Oct 02 11:06
FRV v DRS
Sep 28 22:34
Runs Above Average
Sep 16 16:46
Skenes v Webb: Illustrating Replacement Level in WAR
Sep 16 16:43
Sacrifice Steal Attempt
Sep 09 14:47
Can Wheeler win the Cy Young in 2024?
Sep 08 13:39
Small choices, big implications, in WAR
Sep 07 09:00
Why does Baseball Reference love Erick Fedde?
Sep 03 19:42
Re-Leveraging Aaron Judge
Aug 24 14:10
Science of baseball in 1957
THREADS
August 19, 2014
Humans with prosthetics are neither inferior nor superior
March 11, 2014
What happens after Tommy John surgery?
November 24, 2013
Glioblastoma mutliforme
September 03, 2013
Forecasting injuries of pitchers based on college usage
June 11, 2013
Is it possible to overtrain?
May 21, 2013
Facemasks for pitchers
April 12, 2013
Inverted W
February 18, 2013
Injury begets injury
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