JPS57184919A - Prediction of flow rate of river water - Google Patents

Abstract

PURPOSE:To raise the prediction accuracy of the flow rate of river water by a method in which the relation between the amount of rain water and the flow rate of river water is approximately calculated by a non-linear relation formula, model parameters are determined by a square average error minimization method, and error due to the difference between amounts of rain water at points and total amount of rain water is absorbed in the variable of internal condition. CONSTITUTION:Actually measured rain water amount ri(t)(i=1-n) at the time t is sent through a transmission line 3i to a river water flow rate predictor 4 every a fixed time interval from rain water amount observatories 21-2n set at pural points in a water collection area. A predicted value of river water flow rate is output from the actually measured values Q(t) and ri(t) of river water flow rate sent from a river water flow rate measurer 5. In this case, the Q(t) is approximated to the secondary item of Volterra series, and its integral nucleus is developed by Lagnerre polynomial. The parameters of developing coefficient, developing item, time constant, etc., are determined by a square average error minimization method for actually measured value and calculated value, and the error resulting from the difference between the amount of rain water at points and the total amount of rain water is absorbed in the variable of internal conditions. Thus, the accuracy of the prediction of the flow rate of river water can be enhanced.