CN103959322B - Based on the resource circulation mode cooperated between different subjects - Google Patents

Abstract

Offer of the present invention with regard to infrastructure services such as the electric power between multiple management bodies, waterpipe, railways, the method for being related to persistently provide service by the resource circulation based on the cooperation between operator.The problem of the present invention is respectively circulation request judgement to be promised/refused receiving the main body of request, by negotiate determine amount of suppression, could resource circulation method in, determine request target, the requesting method for reaching circulation.Especially with accurately estimate different management bodies to circulate judgment standard and possible circulation method as problem.That shares infrastructure services between multiple operators utilizes plan and supply projection, calculate when inadequate resource is produced by circulating the time limit for solving, length change request target and circulation method only is limited to according to expiring, thus predicting the change probability of the plan of other operators.

Description

Based on the resource circulation mode cooperated between different subjects

Technical field

The present invention relates to the cooperative system method between multiple management bodies.More particularly to regard to electric power, waterpipe, railway etc. The offer of infrastructure services, the method for persistently providing service by the resource circulation based on the cooperation between operator.

Background technology

In the infrastructure services such as electric power, waterpipe, railway, by predicting its demand and preparing corresponding with demand in advance Supply, using the teaching of the invention it is possible to provide stable infrastructure services.Demand for example in power supply, in electric power operator prediction administration The demand of person, the generating of the amount for carrying out disclosure satisfy that this demand, thus providing stable power supply service.As being used for The system for realizing this point, puts aside the attribute of demand for services person or other service providers or takes action in the past, according to these information The demand in future is predicted, determines the quantity delivered met with the demand.For example, in power supply service, electric power operator Collect the demander such as electric power consumption resume or demander attribute information and store in data base, needed using these information predictions The person of asking utilizes action.When prediction is using action, from the electric power of past demander using extract in resume be close to week or Utilization resume under the situation of the present situations such as weather, additionally, utilize using the demander of resume for without past electric power There are the resume of demander of similar characteristics predicting utilization action.

Also, with the raising that current environment is realized, not only prepare the quantity delivered being consistent with the demand for predicting, also The equipment each having come effectively utilizes by the coordination of demander and other ISPs is required, is thus keeping supply and demand to put down Reduce environmental pressure while weighing apparatus.Especially in power supply service, with the popularization of intelligent grid and decentralized power s, by needing The suppression (economize on electricity) that the solar generator or accumulator, the electric power of also demander that the person of asking keeps is utilized, can not increase Electricity supply and demand is kept in the case of generated energy.Therefore, prediction is not only needed using action, in addition it is also necessary to which prediction comprising economize on electricity or disperses The utilization of power supply is such to supply action.When so being coordinated come clothes of providing infrastructures by demander or other ISPs During business, to demander or service provider requests' infrastructure using suppressing or supplying increment, demander or the clothes of request are received Business supplier judges promising/refusing to request according to various purposes.When realizing that high-precision supply and demand are adjusted, need evaluating As above coordinate in promise/refuse probability while, determine the coordination side of demander or other ISPs Method.

For example, patent documentation 1 is to eliminate electric power not by carrying out mutually electric power circulation between multiple generating operators The method of foot, according to the supply and demand program information for being made by multiple operators respectively, for there is electric hypodynamic operator, selectes There are power margin, the operator that can circulate, and determine that its electric power circulation can energy.

According to the record of patent documentation 1, multiple operators for needing to receive circulation and the warp that can circulate is being respectively present Under the situation of battalion person, circulation plan can be made.

Prior art literature

Patent documentation

Patent documentation 1：Japanese Unexamined Patent Publication 2005-45887 publications

Content of the invention

Invention problem to be solved

However, in the technology that patent documentation 1 is recorded, work out circulation based on the normal supply and demand program for setting in advance Plan.Additionally, on condition that the supply and demand program being set does not carry out large variation, can be from being planned into the operation that has surplus Person is circulated, and can not be circulated from the operator being planned into without surplus.

Therefore, when supply and demand situation is varied widely according to time or environment or when according to automatically supplying not enough operator's Request change one's plans in itself to realize circulating when be difficult to apply.For example, in region electrical management (CEMS:Community Energy Management System) in, when being sent out with oneself electromotor for being possessed using the multiple factories in region, solar energy While motor, accumulator each factory coordinate keep electricity supply and demand in region to balance for target when, supply and demand program and Circulation could be driven with the environmental aspect for being referred to as weather by the production status at every moment of each factory, and supply and demand program may not It is fixed.Therefore, it is difficult to tackle when demand balance is broken due to the burst state of affairs such as accident.Additionally, asking for circulation Ask, requested person is difficult to reach supply and demand adjustment according to situation change supply and demand program at every moment.

As described above, in the technology that patent documentation 1 is recorded, it is difficult to tackle supply and demand program according to the situation of changed condition, Change supply and demand program to realize the situation that circulates by the negotiation of request-judgement.

The purpose of the present invention is resource circulation request to be judged to promise/refuse simultaneously respectively in the operator for receiving request Determined by negotiation amount of suppression, could resource circulation during, determine accurately to reach the request target of control targe With circulation method.Especially, by estimate different operators for the judgment standard that gets around regulations and possible circulation method for the purpose of.

Means for solving the problems

For solving above-mentioned problem, in present invention, when inadequate resource is detected in its own system, retrieve into Management body of the row to the resource circulation of the system of other management bodies.Here, predicting other management bodies by preparing in advance The information of action, at once movable model information simultaneously retrieve the information, determine the request which management body to propose resource circulation to Properly.Resource is realized by the management body destination request resource circulation to so determining to circulate.

Invention effect

According to the present invention, when the offer of infrastructure services is maintained by the resource circulation between multiple operators, The attitude promising/refuse of each operator to circulation can be predicted.

Description of the drawings

Fig. 1 is the representational hardware structure diagram of the present invention.

Fig. 2 is the representational software architecture diagram of the present invention.

Fig. 3 is of the handling process (request source is processed) of the resource circulation method of the present invention.

Fig. 4 is of the handling process (process of request target side) of the resource circulation method of the present invention.

Fig. 5 is of the detailed process of the circulation requesting method of the present invention.

Fig. 6 is of the detailed process of the presumption method of the circulation action model of the present invention.

Fig. 7 is of the detailed process of the circulation time limit computational methods of the present invention.

Fig. 8 is of the table of the resource utilization scheme for representing the present invention.

Fig. 9 is of the table of the circulation action model for representing the present invention.

Figure 10 is the concept map of the electric power circulation for representing the resource circulation method based on the present invention.

Figure 11 is the concept map of the electric power circulation for representing the resource circulation method based on the present invention.

Figure 12 is the concept map of the freight volume circulation for representing the resource circulation method based on the present invention.

Figure 13 is circulate method list one.

Specific embodiment

Embodiment 1

First, the summary of embodiment is illustrated.

(summary description)

In the present embodiment, with the electric power supply devices such as nonutility generator, solar generator, accumulator and life Product equipment, office equipment etc. power consumption equipment multiple factories, when electric power utilization is close to certain reference value, for example in advance with electricity During the maximum power utilization of power operator signing, to other operators of electric power circulation can be carried out, supplied by increasing electric power Give or reduce electric power utilization to circulate electric power, in the group of multiple operators, thus adjust electricity supply and demand.

Figure 10 is the concept map of the electricity supply and demand adjustment of that represents embodiments of the present invention.In shared low-voltage distribution Line, on one's own account multiple operators 1002 of power supply infrastructure 1010 such as net, between 1003,1004, when in certain operator (1002), when detecting electric power deficiency in, other operators 1003 are utilized based on electric power is cut down via the request of communication line 1005 Amount or the electric power circulation of the power supply from electrical circuitry equipments such as decentralized power s, attempt eliminating electric power deficiency.Now, as request The operator 1002 of person predicts that other operators 1003,1004 circulate the action of request for electric power, preferentially to promise please The high operator of the probability asked sends request, so as to reliably receive electric power circulation.However, for the request of electric power circulation, The operator 1003 for receiving request is difficult to judge whether that can pass through change more usually business plan or utilizing for equipment counts in advance Draw to execute electric power circulation, need the change probability of the plan to be predicted according to past resume or request negotiation process.

More specifically, realize that resource is circulated as follows.

In the present embodiment, between infrastructure services supplier and the person of needs or the person of needs or infrastructure services are carried Between donor between such multiple management bodies, the resource of the shared offer object for becoming infrastructure services, such as electric power Or transport capacity normal when supply projection and using plan, when produce the resource not enough when, counted according to the supply Draw and extracted using plan and can be supplied by enhancing or suppress to utilize to promise the management body that circulates, described operation is led Body sends circulation request, receive the management body of the circulation request change is determined using plan according to current state of affairs or Supply projection carries out response to the ISP as requestor promising to circulate.

In order to make the circulation request, record to the supply projection and the profit of shared each management body person The increase and decrease or the beginning of the utilization of resources/supply of the utilization of resources/quantity delivered for using tricks to divide benchmark into, the change of end time or money Firmly believed using the credibility for promising to promise probability described in probability and expression of the request of the change at maximum moment of/supply in source Degree.Eliminate when supply is not enough in the not enough circulation method of supply, by promising probability described in request and the certainty factor is higher Circulation method not enough to eliminate supply.

On the other hand, promise probability for the request, according to the state of affairs of the management body person for receiving request and Environment and different, it is impossible to share in advance, described in the ISP that therefore makes requests on prediction, promise probability, calculate and keep this The credibility of prediction is used as the certainty factor.In order to calculate described promise probability and certainty factor, the ISP calculates many The time limit of supply and demand can not be adjusted in circulation between individual management body person, when the time to the time limit being more than certain, Request is sent after the circulation method in the circulation method for can adjust supply and demand selecting certainty factor relatively low, and according to from conduct The response of the management body of requested person is promised to increase the certainty factor while rate described in updating, when to the time limit When period is certain following, select to promise the higher circulation method of probability and certainty factor in the circulation method for can adjust supply and demand After send request.Additionally, there is no the circulation method of requested operator for certain period, subtraction is carried out to the certainty factor Computing.Thus, when the time limit that can adjust supply and demand by the circulation is long, exploration is used as each management body of requested person Difficulty is promised based on the circulation of change of plan, when the time limit that can adjust supply and demand by the circulation in short-term, request is by can By promising and supply and demand adjustment is easily successfully circulated.

For example, when being economized on electricity to adjust the electricity supply and demand in region by the operator's request to factory etc. in CEMS, Each factory discloses the electric power of each business such as production using plan, electric power of the CEMS for the particular moment of object region to CEMS Deficiency, the minimizing of the maximum power utilization by asking each business, the change for starting over the moment of business or electric power profit Change with time to peak section is not enough to seek elimination electric power.The operator for receiving request considers that can the request content execute Promising/refusing to request is judged with the impact probability to all business, and response is carried out to the CEMS.CEMS is according to next From the response of the operator, update the minimizing of the maximum power utilization as the circulation method, business and start over The change at moment or electric power using the change of time to peak section in the circulation method that is asked promise probability, increase corresponding Certainty factor.Adjusted according to the electricity needs of the coordination between the management body from based on region, to melting to other regions Logical request, other supply and demand adjustment methods of adjustment such as the stringent effort such as the supply request or scheduled outage of upper power system are turned In time limit till shifting, when the time limit is longer, the circulation method relatively low to the certainty factor makes requests on, when the time limit compared with In short-term, make requests on to the higher circulation method of probability and the certainty factor of promising.

For reaching above-mentioned item, possesses following structure in the present embodiment.As the multiple management bodies using computer Between resource circulation method, when inadequate resource, predict that other management bodies promise probability to what resource was circulated, according to institute The height for stating the height and precision of prediction of promising probability is selected to management body and the circulation of the request target that resource is circulated Method, the management body as the request target of resource circulation evaluate realizing probability and described melting for the circulation method The logical impact to managing, judgement could execute the circulation request, reply to request source described in could execute, each management body root According to the request content and the response, change itself resource utilization scheme and resource provision plan some or both sides.

Additionally, in the method for promising probability described in prediction, possessing：Shared resource between the plurality of operator Means using, supply projection；Estimate the means for promising probability of the utilization, the change of supply projection；Calculate the probability The means of the certainty factor of presumption；When resource supply and demand are unbalanced, can be received according to the utilization, supply projection generation necessary The utilization of resource circulation, the means of the variation of supply projection；Obtain until judging to eliminate the resource not The means in the time limit till equilibrium；Change according to the utilization supply projection promise probability, the probability presumption firmly believe Degree and the length in the time limit, send the means of the request of the relatively low circulation method of the certainty factor；According to described using confession Probability, the certainty factor of probability presumption and the length in the time limit are promised to the change of plan, change is sent and is promised generally The means of the request of the higher circulation method of rate and the certainty factor.

(describing in detail)

Next, being described in detail to the present embodiment.

Fig. 1 is the hardware structure diagram of the present invention.It is operator A systems 137 and operator by all of systematic groups of operator A The all of systematic groups of B are that operator's B system 101 is constituted, and are connected by WAN communication network 156.Here, in FIG by managing 101 two operator's systems of person A systems 137 and operator's B system are constituted, but it is also possible to comprising more operator's systems.

Operator A systems 137 are all for operator A, the utilization of infrastructure services and the confession such as carry out power supply, utilize The set of the systematic group that gives, possess service manager server 142, cooperation management server 168, monitoring control server zone 140, 141st, controller group 138,139 and electrical circuitry equipment group 157,158,159.

Service manager server 142 is for monitoring the superfluous, not enough of the resource of infrastructure services, and works out, sends The computer of the control plan of the next monitoring control server zone 140,141, by CPU145, two external memories 147, primary storage Device 146, input/output unit 144 and communicator 143 are constituted.Store in main storage 146 and two external memories 147 For the program that resource circulates method, and executed by CPU147.

Additionally, cooperation management server 168 and monitoring control server zone 140,141 are carried out by communicator 143 Cooperation.Additionally, input/output unit 170 is operated service manager server 142, confirms implementing result, renewal for operator The device of program, can be that the data input such as the user's interface devices such as keyboard, mouse, touch screen, or CD drivers is defeated Go out device.

Cooperation management server 168 is to generate the resource circulation with regard to the infrastructure services of operator's B system 101 The computer of the action of other operators such as request, prediction operator B.Additionally, the server can also receive the one of request Side is utilized.Now, the action shown in Fig. 4 is executed.

By CPU171, two external memories 173, main storage 172,169 structure of input/output unit 170 and communicator Into.The program for circulating method for resource is stored in main storage 172 and two external memories 173, and is held by CPU171 OK.Additionally, by communicator 169 via service manager server 142 and WAN communication network 156 and operator's B system 101 Cooperation.Additionally, input/output unit 170 is for operator's operation cooperation management server 168, confirms implementing result, renewal The device of program, can be that the data input such as the user's interface devices such as keyboard, mouse, touch screen, or CD drivers is defeated Go out device.

Monitoring control server zone 140,141 is cooperated with controller group 138,139, carries out infrastructure services correlation The computer cluster of monitoring control, is made up of multiple monitoring control servers corresponding with the object range of monitoring control.Though here, It is so the structure for controlling server based on multiple monitoring, but it is also possible to server 141 is controlled by single monitoring only and is constituted.Monitoring control Control server 141 is by CPU150, two external memories 152, main storage 151, input/output unit 149 and communicator 148 Constitute.The monitoring to controller group 138,139 is executed according to the plan from service manager server 142 to control.Deposit secondary Supervisory control program is stored in reservoir 152 and main storage 151, and is executed by CPU150.Additionally, communicator 148 is passed through Cooperated with service manager server 142 by LAN, receive the monitoring result of controller group 138,139, and send control instruction.This Outward, input/output unit 149 is controlled server, confirms the device of implementing result, more new procedures for operater action monitor, It can be the data input/output device such as the user's interface devices such as keyboard, mouse, touch screen, or CD drivers.

Controller group 138,139 is the control device for controlling, measuring electrical circuitry equipment group 157,158,159, with control object Electrical circuitry equipment be accordingly made up of multiple controllers.Here, being made up of multiple controllers, but it is also possible to only by single control Device 139 is constituted, it would however also be possible to employ be not provided with controller and by the direct control electrical circuitry equipment group 157 of monitoring control server 141, 158th, 159 structure.Controller 139 is made up of CPU154, main storage 153, communicator 155, executes master by CPU154 The control program stored in memorizer 153.Additionally, communicator 155 is cooperated with monitoring control server 141 via LAN, this Outward, electrical circuitry equipment group is controlled.

Electrical circuitry equipment group 157,158,159 is the equipment for providing or using infrastructure services such as electric power, Ke Yishi The electric power supply devices such as thermoelectric generator, solar generator, accumulator, or transformation device, transformator, switch etc. send Controller switching equipment, can also be the electric power such as production equipment, air conditioning device, household electrical appliances using equipment.

Operator's B system 101 and other operator's systems also have and 137 identical hardware configuration of operator A systems.

Fig. 2 is the structure of the software executed in the hardware configuration of Fig. 1.

In operator A systems 137, on service manager server 142 as software implement plan time limit management 201st, DB203 is used in service level management 202, plan.Service level management 202 manages execution in operator A systems 137 The supply of the program type of business and infrastructure services, utilization obstacle.For example, when operator is factory, management production industry Utilizing for the infrastructure services of business and there is planned.Plan time limit management 201 is calculated for sentencing for the plan of the business The time limit that disconnected plan starts, used as the time restriction for executing.Operation management DB203 savings passes through service level management 202 The business plan of formulation, controller group 138,139 and electric power by controlling the collection that cooperates of server 141 with monitoring The measurement result of the equipment infrastructure services such as group 157,158,159 and electric power.

Circulation request management 204, model presumption 205, other operation is executed as software on cooperation management server 168 Person model DB206.Circulation request management 204 carries out the request mesh that the resource to other operators headed by operator B is circulated Mark is selected, request content is generated and the transmission of request, response are received.Model presumption 205 is in order in circulation request management 204 The request target select and the request content generate in utilize, according in other operator model DB206 put aside letter Cease to estimate the action that other operators ask circulation.Other operator's models DB206 puts aside past and other operators Circulation request result, and put aside by model presumption 205 presumption contents be used as other operator's models.

Monitoring control server 141 on, from receive and execute controller group 138,139 monitoring control, to Service Management The report of server 142 and the monitoring control 207 from the plan of service manager server 142 are based on the monitoring with savings The monitoring control DB208 of the monitoring control result of the controller group 138,139 of control 207 is constituted.Monitoring control server 140 etc. Other monitoring control servers also have identical structure.

On controller 138 execute carry out electrical equipment group sensor values measurement and actuator control measurement, Control 209.

Next, mainly illustrating to plan time limit management 201, service level management 202, circulation request pipe according to Fig. 3 to Fig. 7 Reason 204 and the process content of model presumption 205.

Fig. 3 is the summary that resource circulates method, is the handling process in the request source for receiving resource circulation from other operators.

First, step 301 is to detect the process of inadequate resource, the utilization for comparing resource by service level management 202 With amount usable, process of the execution step below 302 if which is differed from below for certain value.Here, the utilization of resource is to be based on The plan of the electric power utilization of the business plan of each operator.Can for example be itself electric power utilization temporally, it is also possible to Be total from other operators in advance other operators disclosed electric power using plan gained result.Additionally, when from as During electrical power services receiver, the amount usable can be the maximum power utilization that is contracted with electric power operator in advance, also may be used Be itself work out electric power utilization or amount of electricity saving desired value.Additionally, when from as power supply persons such as electric power operators When, the amount usable can be the maximum power quantity delivered of total electromotor ability gained.

Next, step 302 is to work out the process of inadequate resource elimination plan, works out in service level management 202 and use In the business plan for eliminating the inadequate resource, and work out the control plan for being sent to monitoring control server 141.Here, institute State the every of the methods of operation of power consumption equipment such as operating and production equipment that business plan is the power supply such as electromotor equipment The plan of hour.

Step 303 is the process that can investigation eliminate inadequate resource, checks by service level management 202 in the step Can the inadequate resource elimination plan that worked out in 302 eliminate the inadequate resource.Put aside according to using in DB203 in plan Past resume and monitoring control resume, calculate utilization of resources amount based on the inadequate resource plan and resource provision amount, And analyze and can eliminate inadequate resource.If inadequate resource can not be eliminated, the process of below step 304 is carried out.

Step 304 is to calculate the process in the time limit for avoiding, and works out the time of inadequate resource generation and when inadequate resource is produced When for prevent electrical circuitry equipment group 157,158,159 failure or minimal keeping away will be suppressed to the impact of other operators Exempt to process, and calculate and start the time limit for avoiding and processing.

Within the time from current time to the time limit for avoiding and processing, push away in circulation request management 204, model Fixed 205, in other operator model DB206, resource circulation request is sent to other operators, attempt eliminating the resource not Foot.

Next, step 305 is to send resource circulation request to other operators, from other operator's models The process of the circulation action model of other operators is obtained in DB206.The circulation action model, is to work as to request for prediction Whether the resource such as the reduction of electric power utilization or the enhancing of amount of electric power supply promises the information that asks when circulating, comprising at least one Resource circulation amount that individual above electric power circulation method is obtained, promising probability and promise the pre- of probability described in representing to request Survey the certainty factor of precision.In addition, resource circulation action model is set to each circulation method, therefore, first by shown in Figure 13 Circulation method list determine circulation method, and resource circulation action model is extracted according to the circulation method of the determination.

Step 306 is to work out the process of the circulation plan that can eliminate inadequate resource by model presumption 205, according to step The circulation action model obtained in 305, works out the resource circulation plan to other operators for eliminating the inadequate resource. The resource circulation amount that includes in action model is circulated according to the resource, is extracted in before other operators promise all of request The transmission target for putting the request that can eliminate inadequate resource and the resource circulation method for making requests on.

Step 309 be in model presumption 205 and circulation request management 204 according to promise that probability and precision of prediction select please The process of target and circulation method is asked, and probability and the certainty factor is promised according to the circulation action model includes, is selected Select more than one request target operator and resource circulation method.

Step 310 and step 311 are in circulation request management 204 to send request to the request target operator, And from the request target operator as request response and receive circulation execute could process.

Before reaching the time limit for calculating in step 304 (step 307), (step till it can eliminate inadequate resource Rapid 308) repeating said steps 309, step 310 and the process of step 311.

In step 312, by model presumption 205, according to request content and the step of the circulation in step 309, step 310 Response content in rapid 311 updates circulation action model, and is stored in other operator model DB206.

Fig. 4 is the summary that resource circulates method, is the request target for receiving resource circulation request from other operators Handling process.

First, step 401 is to receive the process of resource (electric power) circulation request, is to receive the money for sending in the step 310 The process of source circulation request.

Step 402 is to work out the process of circulation plan, works out the business plan for realizing the circulation of the resources such as requested electric power Change and be sent to the change of the control plan of monitoring control server 140 to realize business plan change.

Step 403 is the process of impact of the analysis to own service, is analyzed in service level management 202 by described The process of the impact to business that resource circulation is produced.For example, when realizing resource circulation by the operating of nonutility generator When, analyze the rising of the cost such as fuel cost, additionally, when by based on the electric power such as production equipment using the stopping of equipment economize on electricity come When realizing that the resource is circulated, analysis produces not reaching for the business objectives such as the volume of production of which kind of degree.

Step 404 be calculate circulation plan beginning the time limit process, calculate plan time limit management 201 in start for Realize business plan change, the time limit of control plan change of the resource circulation.

Step 405 be determine circulation could process, according to analyzing in step 403 in circulation request management 201 Impact and the time limit that starts for calculating in step 404 to business determines that the execution of circulation could.For example, described open when exceeding Begin the time limit or to described beginning the time limit during less than certain value when, be judged as executing the circulation, additionally, work as right When the impact of the business is larger, it is judged as not executing circulation.

Step 406 is to send the process of response, could by the circulation determined in step 405 in circulation request management 201 It is sent to the operator in request source.The response is received in step 311.

When the circulation for determining in step 405 could be to promise, in order to execute the circulation meter that works out in step 402 Draw, the change of the control plan is sent to monitoring control server 140, and realizes the resource circulation to asking.

Fig. 5 is the handling process of the system of selection of the request target and circulation method for representing resource circulation, is step 309 Detailed process.

First, step 501 is to circulate action model according to resource and obtain to promise the process of probability and certainty factor, extract with from The resource circulation action model of the circulation method correlation that the resource circulation of operator is extracted as circulation method in the works, and Obtain which and promise probability and certainty factor, wherein described operator is from the resource circulation conduct in the works that works out within step 306 Request target and extract.

Step 502 is that investigation expires the time only of being limited to whether long than certain value process, obtains more in step 304 The time to the time limit for avoiding processing is with the threshold value that sets in advance and to calculate which poor.

Step 503 is that expiring of calculating in step 502 is limited to the process of time only than threshold value in the case of long, is According to the process that the circulation action model selects the relatively low circulation method of certainty factor.Longer when the time to the time limit When, the circulation method for selecting certainty factor relatively low in the circulation action model for obtaining in step 501.Here, as certainty factor compared with The system of selection of low circulation method, the circulation that from the circulation action model of the acquirement certainty factor can be selected minimum Method, it is also possible to which the circulation method of the acquirement is sorted from low to high with certainty factor, according to sequence from high to low suitable Sequence selects multiple circulation methods, till reaching the resource circulation amount of needs, as long as prioritizing selection certainty factor is relatively low melt The method of circulation method, then can be any means.

Step 504 is that investigation expires the time only of being limited to whether short than certain value process, obtains more in step 304 The time to the time limit for avoiding processing is with the threshold value that sets in advance and to calculate which poor.

Step 505 is that expiring of calculating in step 504 is limited to the process of time only than threshold value in the case of short, is Select certainty factor and promise the process of the higher circulation method of probability.When the time to the time limit is longer, from step Certainty factor is selected in the 501 circulation action models for obtaining and promises the higher method of probability.Here, the selection as circulation method Method, can extract circulation method of the certainty factor more than certain value from the circulation action model of the acquirement, and according to institute State the circulation amount that promises probability and method is circulated based on the resource and calculate and expect circulation amount, select and the resource circulation amount for needing The circulation method of circulation more than consistent circulation method or expectation resource circulation amount, it is also possible to which the certainty factor is considered as expression The certainty factor is considered as resource with the amount for promising probability multiplication gained and is melted by the correct probability of the prediction for promising probability Logical execution probability is calculating the expectation circulation amount, as long as prioritizing selection certainty factor and promise the higher circulation side of probability Method, then can be any means.

Fig. 6 is the process chart of the presumption method for representing resource circulation action model, is the circulation action in step 312 The detailed process of model modification.

First, step 601 is to obtain the process of request content and response content, in step 309, step 310 into Circulation method, the request content for receiving in step 311 of operator and request for request target, obtains the quilt The operator of request take promise, refuse in which kind of action.

When the response of the requested operator is for promising (step 602), step 603 is to increase the place for promising probability Reason, is the corresponding place for promising probability of circulation method for calculating related to the operator for becoming the request target request Reason.As the computational methods for promising probability, only can make described promise the value that probability increase is set in advance, promise when described The probability of promising is set to 1.0 when probability is more than 1.0, it is also possible to keep past in other operator model DB206 and ask Seek resume and from the request resume will promise number of times and probability be calculated divided by the request number of times, as long as according to promising The method of the calculating that response is more and carries out promising probability increase, then can be any means.

When the response of the requested operator is for promising (step 604), step 604 is to reduce and request target The corresponding process for promising probability of circulation content, is to calculate the request related to the operator for becoming the request target The corresponding process for promising probability of circulation method.Method for calculating probability is promised as described, only can make described to promise probability and subtract Few value for setting in advance, promises, when probability is less than 0.0, the probability of promising is set to 0.0 when described, it is also possible in other operation Keep past request resume and number of times will be promised from the request resume coming divided by the request number of times in person model DB206 Probability is calculated, as long as the method according to the response that promises less to carry out the calculating for promising probability minimizing, then can be any side Method.

Next, step 605 is to increase the process of certainty factor corresponding with the circulation content of request target, no matter described should The content that answers, all increases corresponding certainty factor.Additionally, step 606 is the certainty factor beyond the circulation method for reducing request target Process, reduce do not send request request target circulation method certainty factor.For example, the increase side of the certainty factor Certain less value that method, minimizing method can make certainty factor to set in advance increases, reduces.As long as frequency can be calculated Numerous circulation method for sending request or the certainty factor change of shorter than the current time circulation method of nearest request time date issued Height, sends the relatively low circulation method of frequency or the circulation method that nearest request time date issued is more remote than current time of request Certainty factor step-down method, then can be any means.

Fig. 8 is to represent that the electric power of resource circulation method utilizes of the table of plan.Each operator multiple operators it Between share electric power shown in Fig. 8 using planning and be stored in other operator model DB206, be achieved in resource circulation Method.

Row 801 " promisor's name " are the titles of operator, represent the operator for working out, executing the plan.802 " business of row Classification " is attribute of the electric power using plan, represents the classification using the business of electric power such as production business, office service.Row 803 " moment " expression is carried out the moment that electric power is utilized, and row 804 " electric power utilization " represent the electricity utilized in the electric power using the moment Strength.Fig. 8 is open between each operator, share horal electric power utilization.

Row 806 represents operator " business office of Hitachi " conduct " usual office service " " 2011/11/110:00-1:00” The electric power of enforcement is " 10 " using plan.

Fig. 9 is of the table of the circulation action model for representing resource circulation method.Shared with each operator in fig. 8 Based on electric power is using plan, change probability of the electric power using plan is predicted, thus as circulation action model.

Row 901 " promisor's name " are the titles with 801 identical operator of row, and row 902 " class of service " are and 802 phase of row The classification of the business of same utilization electric power.

Row 903 " start time " are that the electric power utilizes beginning electric power in the identical services classification of identical promisor in the works The moment for utilizing.Row 904 " change probability " when carried out in advance, postpone the change request such as described start time when promised The predictive value of probability, row 905 " certainty factor " are the credibilitys of the predictive value of the change probability for representing the start time Value.

Row 906 " finish time " are that the electric power is electric using the end in the identical services classification of identical promisor in the works The moment that power is utilized.Row 907 " change probability " be when carried out in advance, postpone the change request such as described finish time when promised Probability predictive value, row 908 " certainty factor " are the credibilitys of the predictive value of the change probability for representing the finish time Value.

Row 909 " peak value moment " are when electric power utilization is planned into electric power utilization in the works and becomes maximum Carve, row 910 " change probability " and row 911 " certainty factor " be represent the change request to the peak value moment promise probability Predictive value and the value of its credibility.

Row 912 " peak value utilization " are that the electric power utilizes calculated maximum power utilization, row 913 " change probability " And row 914 " certainty factor " are to represent to request to promise the pre- of probability in the case of the decreasing or increasing of the peak value utilization Measured value and the value of its credibility.

In fig .9, it is not different the increase of each planned value, reduces and will promise with being not different variable quantity probability and true Reliability is processed as identical value, but can will promise probability and certainty factor work according to the direction of the changes such as increase, minimizing Processed for different value, it is also possible to probability will be promised as the probability distribution with value corresponding with the variable quantity that is asked Function is being processed.

Additionally, in Fig. 8 and Fig. 9, using electric power utilization as plan, circulation action model, but sending out including to have In the case of the operator of the electric power supply devices such as motor, accumulator, can the amount of supplying power to as plan, circulation action mould Type is keeping.

Fig. 7 is to obtain the handling process that resource circulates the time limit, is the detailed process of step 304.

First, step 701 is the process at the failure generation moment for predicting that inadequate resource causes, and compares power supply, utilization Etc. resource utilization scheme and the resource provision plan of infrastructure services, predict that utilization exceedes quantity delivered or sets in advance Utilization is that surplus capacity declines and the moment of generation failure with the difference of quantity delivered.When for power supply, utilize when, compare and exist in advance The business plan that shares between operator and electric power are using plan and by electric power operator and the operator with generating equipment Shared power supply plan, calculates and is contemplated to supply surplus energy and is unable to maintain that service voltage or frequency so as to producing less than certain value The raw moment having a power failure.

Next, step 702 is to predict the process of the response time for circulating request based on resource, when to other operators Time when going out to ask, required for till past request resume prediction receives response.As Forecasting Methodology, can be at which Past request resume are kept in his operator model DB206, by the request moment of each operator and the difference at response moment Meansigma methodss are used as predictive value, it is also possible to using the meansigma methodss of the request moment of all of operator and the difference at response moment as Predictive value, as long as the method that prediction receives the time to the response that asks, then can be any means.

Step 703 is to obtain fault-avoidance process and the process of process time, and what acquirement was worked out in step 304 avoids locating The process time of reason.Preset value calculation according to past resume or design moment executes the time required for avoiding processing.When Avoid being processed as preparing having a power failure and when stopping electrical circuitry equipment, will can stop needed for each electrical circuitry equipment without failure as described Maximum time in the time that wants is set to the process time, and works as and avoid processing peripherad operator's notice product as described During raw power failure, the time required for envisioning each operator's acknowledgement notification and preparing to have a power failure is set to process time.

Finally, step 704 is the process at the final moment that computation requests send, and answers according to request is circulated to the resource Answer time, the process time for avoiding processing and the failure and produce prediction time, calculate to other operators and send money The final moment of source circulation request.As computational methods, calculate and avoid processing described in shifting to an earlier date from the failure generation anticipation moment Process time moment as avoid process start the time limit, calculate from described avoid process start the time limit in advance to the resource The moment of the response time of circulation request circulates the final moment that request sends as resource.Here, computational methods be by from The failure generation prediction time turns around and calculates to calculate, but it is also possible to kept for the past in other operator model DB206 Request resume and according to from sending averagely finish time of the initial request to circulation method determines calculating the money The final moment that source circulation request sends, as long as the request for calculating this other operator backward does not cause effective resource circulation Moment method, then can be any means.

In the present embodiment and Figure 10, using multiple operators self-discipline dispersedly action and mutually implement electric power circulate as Premise.However, it is also possible to as shown in figure 11, electric power operator 1102 concentrates and implements electric power circulation method, to being present in region The operator 1103,1104,1105 of the power infrastructures 1110 such as 1101 interior and shared distribution wires sends electric power circulation request, from And eliminate the electric hypodynamic structure in region.

Method is circulated according to the resource of the present embodiment, when common business plan or equipment are using plan change or root When executing electric power according to the request change plan and circulating, can be according to obtaining during the negotiation of past resume or request The change probability of the plan is predicted in the response of other operators, can highly predict the circulation action of other operators. Thereby, it is possible to realize high-precision electric power circulation.

Embodiment 2

Next, the summary to other embodiment is illustrated.

In the present embodiment, between multiple transport operators that railway, public transport etc. provide transportation service, as passenger or The objects of transport such as goods increase to that plan is above and during not enough transport power or cause to transport because of accidents such as the failures of transporting equipment When power is reduced, by between the plurality of transport operator, circulation transport power is not enough to eliminate transport power mutually.

Figure 12 is the concept map of the transport power circulation of that is denoted as other embodiment.In identical region, in the same manner There is provided between point in multiple railroading persons 1202,1203, public transport operator 1204 of passenger facilities, when in a certain operator (1202) the interval generation in A stations 1205 and B stations 1206 for administering and providing passenger facilities is not in good state, it is impossible to provide passenger clothes During business, via 1211 pairs of railroading person 1203 or public transport operation that can enough provide passenger facilities in identical interval of communication line Person 1204 asks to carry out passenger transport by circuitous or carries out transport power circulation by increasing public transport, attempts eliminating transport power not Foot, maintains passenger facilities grade.Now, requestor is that the railroading person 1202 predicts other operators 1203,1204 Transport power and the action to asking, preferentially the higher operator of probability to promising to ask send request, thus promptly receive Transport power is circulated.

The circulation requesting method can be realized by circulating method identical method with the resource shown in Fig. 3 to Fig. 7.Example Such as, celebration the passenger being contemplated in advance such as hold increase when, during sufficiently long negotiation can be obtained, therefore ask really The relatively low transport power of reliability circulates method to calculate the probability of promising of other operators, and happens suddenly, can not obtain enough in accident etc. In the case of during negotiation, by certainty factor and promising the higher transport operator of probability and making requests on reliably to receive fortune Power is circulated.

Symbol description

137 operator's A systems

101 operator's B systems

142 service manager servers

168 cooperation management servers

140 monitoring control servers

141 monitoring control servers

139 controllers

156 wide-area communication circuits

157 electrical circuitry equipments

203 operation management DB

206 other operator model DB

208 monitoring control DB

Claims (15)

1. a kind of resource for circulating resource between multiple management bodies circulates method, it is characterised in that

Possess：

Data base, its be stored with preset other management bodies using resource timing and amount information at once movable model letter Breath,

Possess：

The detecting step of detection inadequate resource；

When testing result is inadequate resource, the action model information is obtained from the data base, estimate in the plurality of warp Probability is promised in the utilization of shared resource, the method for supply projection and the utilization between battalion's main body, the change of supply projection Step；

According to the action model of the acquirement, determining carries out circulating for eliminating the resource of the inadequate resource for detecting Management body determination step；And

The step of being circulated by the management body execution resource being determined,

The resource circulation method is also equipped with：

The step of certainty factor of the presumption for calculating the probability；

When resource supply and demand are unbalanced, according to the institute that the utilization, supply projection generate the resource circulation required for can receiving State utilization, supply projection variation the step of；

Obtain until judge whether successfully to eliminate the resource unbalanced till time limit the step of；

Probability, the certainty factor of probability presumption and the length in the time limit are promised in change according to the utilization supply projection Degree, the time limit length for when more than certain, send the low circulation method of the certainty factor request the step of；And

Probability, the certainty factor of probability presumption and the length in the time limit are promised in change according to the utilization supply projection Degree, when the length in the time limit is below certain, sends change and promises asking for the high circulation method of probability and the certainty factor The step of asking.

2. resource according to claim 1 circulates method, it is characterised in that

Possess time limit calculation procedure, which is calculated for avoiding time limit of the inadequate resource for detecting,

The determination step determines the management body according to the time limit for calculating and current time.

3. resource according to claim 2 circulates method, it is characterised in that

The action model information is also equipped with the reliability information of the credibility for representing this action model information,

When the time to the time limit is longer than predetermined length, the determination step determines that the reliability information is low Management body is used as circulation object.

4. the resource according to Claims 2 or 3 circulates method, it is characterised in that

The time limit calculation procedure according to the moment that inadequate resource occurs, to described other management bodies request resources circulate when Response time is calculated.

5. resource according to claim 4 circulates method, it is characterised in that

The resource is the freight volume of electricity or communication.

6. a kind of resource circulates server, and which is arranged in multiple management bodies, and the resource managed between the management body is melted It is logical, it is characterised in that

Possess：

Data base, its be stored with preset other management bodies using resource timing and amount information at once movable model letter Breath；

Detection means, its detect inadequate resource；And

Cooperation management device, its obtain the action model information from the data base when testing result is inadequate resource, The presumption utilization of shared resource, the method for supply projection and the utilization, supply projection between the plurality of management body Probability is promised in change, and the action model according to the acquirement determines to be carried out for the inadequate resource that detects described in eliminating The management body of resource circulation, sends resource circulation solicited message to the resource circulation server of the management body being determined,

Additionally, the cooperation management device also carries out following action：

Calculate the certainty factor of the presumption of the probability；

When resource supply and demand are unbalanced, according to the institute that the utilization, supply projection generate the resource circulation required for can receiving State the variation of utilization, supply projection；

Obtain until judge whether successfully to eliminate the resource unbalanced till time limit；

Probability, the certainty factor of probability presumption and the length in the time limit are promised in change according to the utilization supply projection Degree, when the length in the time limit is more than certain, sends the request of the low circulation method of the certainty factor；And

Probability, the certainty factor of probability presumption and the length in the time limit are promised in change according to the utilization supply projection Degree, when the length in the time limit is below certain, sends change and promises asking for the high circulation method of probability and the certainty factor Ask.

7. resource according to claim 6 circulates server, it is characterised in that

The cooperation management device calculates the time limit for the inadequate resource for avoiding detecting, and time limit for being calculated according to this and Current time determines the management body.

8. resource according to claim 7 circulates server, it is characterised in that

The action model information is also equipped with the reliability information of the credibility for representing this action model information,

When the time to the time limit is longer than predetermined length, the cooperation management device determines the reliability information Low management body is used as circulation object.

9. the resource according to claim 7 or 8 circulates server, it is characterised in that

The cooperation management device according to the moment that inadequate resource occurs, to described other management bodies request resources circulate when Response time is calculated.

10. a kind of use computer, resource between multiple management bodies circulation method, it is characterised in that possess：

When inadequate resource, predict that other management bodies circulate to resource the step of promising probability；

According to the height of the height and precision of prediction for promising probability, the operation of the request target of resource circulation is selected to The step of main body and circulation method；

The computer of the management body of request target by circulating as the resource, the realization for evaluating the circulation method can Can the impact of property and the circulation to managing, the step of judgement could execute the circulation request；

The step of could executing described in replying to request source；And

Each management body according to request content and response, change itself resource utilization scheme and resource provision plan one party Or the step of both sides,

Promise in probability step in the prediction, estimate the utilization of shared resource, supply meter between the plurality of operator Probability is promised in the method that draws and the utilization, the change of supply projection,

The resource circulation method is also equipped with：

The step of certainty factor of the presumption for calculating the probability；

When resource supply and demand are unbalanced, according to the institute that the utilization, supply projection generate the resource circulation required for can receiving State utilization, supply projection variation the step of；

Obtain until judge whether successfully to eliminate the resource unbalanced till time limit the step of；

Probability, the certainty factor of probability presumption and the length in the time limit are promised in change according to the utilization supply projection Degree, the time limit length for when more than certain, send the low circulation method of the certainty factor request the step of；And

Probability, the certainty factor of probability presumption and the length in the time limit are promised in change according to the utilization supply projection Degree, when the length in the time limit is below certain, sends change and promises asking for the high circulation method of probability and the certainty factor The step of asking.

11. resources according to claim 10 circulate method, it is characterised in that

The method for calculating the certainty factor of the presumption of the probability,

Share between operator including at least the resource utilization scheme of utilization of resources amount on a time period and including at least on time Between section resource provision amount resource provision plan,

Calculate the change request of utilization of resources amount or quantity delivered to the resource utilization scheme and the resource provision plan Promise probability,

Using the change request send frequency and to nearest send the time during at least one of length To calculate the credibility for promising probability.

12. resources according to claim 11 circulate method, it is characterised in that

The step of obtaining the time limit,

The unbalanced moment for needing to eliminate the resource is obtained,

The response time to the request that resource is circulated is predicted,

The process time that the resource circulates the unbalanced avoiding method of other resources when failing is obtained,

The process time at the moment, the response time and other avoiding methods that avoid as needed, calculates and sends use The final term of the unbalanced request of resource is avoided by resource in circulating.

13. resources according to claim 12 circulate method, it is characterised in that

The step of sending request,

When the length in the time limit is more than certain, the request of the low circulation method of the certainty factor is sent,

When the length in the time limit is below certain, sends change and promise asking for the high circulation method of probability and the certainty factor Ask.

A kind of 14. use computers, freight volume between traffic operator circulation method, it is characterised in that

When the supply and demand of freight volume are urgent, prediction promises possibility for the freight volume increase request to other transport operators Property,

According to the height of the height and precision of prediction for promising probability, being selected to the freight volume increases the request of request The transport operator of target and requesting method,

Increase the transport operator of the request target of request as the freight volume, the realization for evaluating the freight volume increase may Property and the freight volume increase the impact to other Transportation Operations of the transport operator, judge the freight volume increase can It is no,

To request source reply described could,

According to request content and response, that changes the transporting equipment of itself utilizes plan to each transport operator,

Promise in probability step in the prediction, estimate the utilization of shared resource, supply projection between multiple operators Probability is promised in method and the utilization, the change of supply projection,

The resource circulation method is also equipped with：

The step of certainty factor of the presumption for calculating the probability；

When resource supply and demand are unbalanced, according to the institute that the utilization, supply projection generate the resource circulation required for can receiving State utilization, supply projection variation the step of；

Obtain until judge whether successfully to eliminate the resource unbalanced till time limit the step of；

Probability, the certainty factor of probability presumption and the length in the time limit are promised in change according to the utilization supply projection Degree, the time limit length for when more than certain, send the low circulation method of the certainty factor request the step of；And

Probability, the certainty factor of probability presumption and the length in the time limit are promised in change according to the utilization supply projection Degree, when the length in the time limit is below certain, sends change and promises asking for the high circulation method of probability and the certainty factor The step of asking.

A kind of 15. use computers, between electric power operator or between electric power operator and electricity needs person or electricity needs Electric power circulation method between person, it is characterised in that

When the difference of electric power utilization and amount of electric power supply or electric power contract amount is below certain value, prediction is directed to other electric power The enhancing of the amount of electric power supply of operator promises probability to what the electric power utilization reduction of demander was asked,

According to the height of the height and precision of prediction for promising probability, it is selected to the power supply enhancing or utilizes cut Subtract electric power operator or demander and the requesting method of the request target of request,

As the request target electric power operator evaluate that the quantity delivered increases realize that probability and the quantity delivered increase Plus to the electric power manage impact, judge the power supply enhanced could,

Demander as the request target evaluates the impact for realizing probability and consumption minimizing that consumption is reduced, Judge that the power consumption cuts down could,

To request source reply described could,

Each electric power operator and demander change the shared equipment of the electric power of itself, electric power according to request content and response and utilize equipment Using plan,

Promise in probability step in the prediction, estimate the utilization of shared resource, supply projection between multiple operators Probability is promised in method and the utilization, the change of supply projection,

The resource circulation method is also equipped with：

The step of certainty factor of the presumption for calculating the probability；

When resource supply and demand are unbalanced, according to the institute that the utilization, supply projection generate the resource circulation required for can receiving State utilization, supply projection variation the step of；

Obtain until judge whether successfully to eliminate the resource unbalanced till time limit the step of；

Probability, the certainty factor of probability presumption and the length in the time limit are promised in change according to the utilization supply projection Degree, the time limit length for when more than certain, send the low circulation method of the certainty factor request the step of；And

Probability, the certainty factor of probability presumption and the length in the time limit are promised in change according to the utilization supply projection Degree, when the length in the time limit is below certain, sends change and promises asking for the high circulation method of probability and the certainty factor The step of asking.