CN102723785A - Electric power load prediction method and electric power load prediction system based on collection of larger user intelligent terminal - Google Patents
Electric power load prediction method and electric power load prediction system based on collection of larger user intelligent terminal Download PDFInfo
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- CN102723785A CN102723785A CN2012102289661A CN201210228966A CN102723785A CN 102723785 A CN102723785 A CN 102723785A CN 2012102289661 A CN2012102289661 A CN 2012102289661A CN 201210228966 A CN201210228966 A CN 201210228966A CN 102723785 A CN102723785 A CN 102723785A
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02B—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO BUILDINGS, e.g. HOUSING, HOUSE APPLIANCES OR RELATED END-USER APPLICATIONS
- Y02B70/00—Technologies for an efficient end-user side electric power management and consumption
- Y02B70/30—Systems integrating technologies related to power network operation and communication or information technologies for improving the carbon footprint of the management of residential or tertiary loads, i.e. smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the buildings sector, including also the last stages of power distribution and the control, monitoring or operating management systems at local level
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S20/00—Management or operation of end-user stationary applications or the last stages of power distribution; Controlling, monitoring or operating thereof
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Abstract
The invention discloses an electric power load prediction method and an electric power load prediction system based on the collection of a large user intelligent terminal. The method comprises the steps of collecting real-time distributed power generation and user power consumption information; establishing a power consumption analysis model according to the power generation, the power consumption information and user historical power consumption information, and acquiring a controllable load list and a load control sequence of the user; and predicting the distributed power generation and the power consumption of the load according to the controllable load list and the load control sequence. The method and the system can help power supply companies to establish a distributed power generation plan and enterprise users to establish a power consumption plan, main reference can be provided for the establishment of the load control plan of the power supply companies, a power distribution dispatching center can precisely predict the distributed power generation and the power consumption of the load according to the information, and strategies and evidences for optimizing the scheduling can be provided for a power distribution network.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the electric power load monitoring and control technology, particularly relate to the load forecast method and system of gathering based on large user's intelligent terminal.
Background technology
The total load of electric power system is exactly the summation that all power consumption equipments consume gross power in the system; With industry, agricultural, post and telecommunications, traffic, municipal administration, commerce and power addition that urban and rural residents consumed, comprehensive power load that must electric power system; The power that comprehensive power load adds the network loss is exactly the power that each power plant should be supplied in the system, is called the supply load (amount of power supply) of electric power system; Supply load adds the power (being the station-service electric weight) that each power plant itself consumes again, is exactly the power that each generator should be sent out in the system, is called the generation load (energy output) of system.
Current domestic load management for the enterprise customer is to realize the real-time monitoring to large user's power load through negative control and management system, also possesses (most cases) implemented long-range power cuts to limit consumption to the large user function simultaneously basically.Yet; During the peak regulation in every year; All be through load limit, the administrative classification isotype work of avoiding the peak hour of rationing the power supply, can't be through the need for electricity of user side itself urgent degree, electricity consumption economic benefit wait and carry out scientific and reasonable load prediction and peak regulation work.
Summary of the invention
Based on this; Be necessary to the problems referred to above; The load forecast method and system of gathering based on large user's intelligent terminal is provided; Can participate in through the user, with the monitor and predict of the synthetic load of Utilities Electric Co.'s two-way interaction, realize rational utilization of electricity, science electricity consumption, avoid the electricity consumption excess load and the problem that breaks down.
A kind of load forecast method of gathering based on large user's intelligent terminal comprises:
Gather real-time distributed power generation amount and user power utilization information;
According to the historical power information of said energy output, said power information and user, set up the electrical energy consumption analysis model, obtain this user's controllable burden inventory and load control sequence;
Carry out the prediction of distributed power generation amount and the prediction of load power consumption according to said control load inventory, said load control sequence.
Correspondingly, a kind of load forecast system of gathering based on large user's intelligent terminal comprises large user's intelligent terminal and coupled control centre's distribution system, wherein,
Said large user's intelligent terminal comprises information acquisition unit, is used to gather real-time distributed power generation amount and user power utilization information; The customer charge acquiring unit that links to each other with said information collecting device is used for the historical power information according to said energy output, said power information and user, sets up the electrical energy consumption analysis model, obtains this user's controllable burden inventory and load control sequence;
Said control centre distribution system comprises the user's distribution predicting unit that links to each other with said customer charge acquiring unit, is used for carrying out the prediction of distributed power generation amount and the prediction of load power consumption according to said control load inventory, said load control sequence.
Embodiment of the present invention has following beneficial effect:
The present invention accurately grasps the enterprises controllable burden through to monitoring and the data analysis in real time of enterprises power information, carries out precisely control of load.The real-time distributed generating and the user power utilization information of gathering according to intelligent terminal; Combine the historical power information of enterprise and other basic data again; Carry out information analysis and computing, dynamically produce enterprise's controllable burden inventory, load control sequence etc. based on model; Formulate distributed power generation plan and user power utilization plan; For Utilities Electric Co.'s load control plan formulation provides main reference, the distribution control centre carries out the distributed power generation amount and the accurately predicting of the power consumption of loading according to these information, and the strategy and the foundation of optimized dispatching is provided for power distribution network.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart that the present invention is based on the load forecast method of large user's intelligent terminal collection;
Fig. 2 is the embodiment flow chart that the present invention is based on the load forecast method of large user's intelligent terminal collection;
Fig. 3 is the structural representation that the present invention is based on the load forecast system of large user's intelligent terminal collection;
Fig. 4 the present invention is based on the load forecast system implementation example structural representation that large user's intelligent terminal is gathered.
Embodiment
For making the object of the invention, technical scheme and advantage clearer, will combine accompanying drawing that the present invention is done to describe in detail further below.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart that the present invention is based on the load forecast method of large user's intelligent terminal collection, comprising:
S101: gather real-time distributed power generation amount and user power utilization information;
S102: according to the historical power information of said energy output, said power information and user, set up the electrical energy consumption analysis model, obtain this user's controllable burden inventory and load control sequence;
S103: carry out the prediction of distributed power generation amount and the prediction of load power consumption according to said control load inventory, said load control sequence.
Large user's intelligent terminal of the present invention has abundant interface, can with being connected of power consumption equipment, intelligent electric meter, intelligent measuring equipment, distributed energy, Intranet and wide area network, gather real-time distributed power generation amount and user power utilization information.Realization helps further to realize the control to user's intelligent electric meter, distributed energy, power consumption equipment to power information collection, the storage of the various power consumption equipments of user.
Through to monitoring and the data analysis in real time of user's enterprises power information, accurately grasp the inner controllable burden of enterprise customer, carry out precisely control of load.The real-time distributed generating and the user power utilization information of being gathered according to large user's intelligent terminal; In conjunction with the historical power information of user enterprise and other basic data; Carry out information analysis and computing based on model; Dynamically produce the controllable burden inventory of user enterprise, load control sequence etc. are for Utilities Electric Co.'s load control plan formulation provides main reference; The distribution control centre carries out the distributed power generation amount and the accurately predicting of the power consumption of loading according to these information, and the strategy and the foundation of optimized dispatching is provided for power distribution network.
Can also realize the interaction of user enterprise and Utilities Electric Co. through large user's intelligent terminal, and mutual with intelligent grid.Can customized production plan in large user's intelligent terminal (comprising information such as the following usage quantity of input power consumption equipment, electric power, load nature of electricity consumed, service time) such as: user enterprise; The user power utilization information of production schedule that user enterprise makes a report on etc. can be gathered by system; In conjunction with history and real time data, carry out load prediction more accurately.Utilities Electric Co. also can own power supply plan with oneself send to the user through large user's intelligent terminal, and user enterprise can produce according to the power supply plan tissue of Utilities Electric Co..
According to the historical power information of said energy output, said power information and user, set up the electrical energy consumption analysis model, obtain the energy charge prediction.Said energy charge prediction comprises the prediction of distributed power generation amount and the prediction of load power consumption.Wherein, the prediction of said distributed power generation amount comprises: distributed energy energy output, quality of power supply real-time information collection and analysis, quality of power supply prediction; The prediction of said load power consumption comprises: electric weight, quality of power supply real-time information collection and analysis, quality of power supply prediction.Further, according to the span of time, can also further be subdivided into: the 1 hour energy output and the electricity demand forecasting of loading; Day energy output and load electricity demand forecasting; All energy output and load electricity demand forecasting; Month energy output and load electricity demand forecasting; Annual energy output and load electricity demand forecasting etc.
Fig. 2 is the embodiment flow chart that the present invention is based on the load forecast method of large user's intelligent terminal collection.Compared to Figure 1, Fig. 2 is the flow chart of specific embodiment.
S201: gather real-time distributed power generation amount and user power utilization information;
S202: according to the historical power information of said energy output, said power information and user, set up the electrical energy consumption analysis model, obtain this user's controllable burden inventory and load control sequence;
S203: carry out the prediction of distributed power generation amount and the prediction of load power consumption according to said control load inventory, said load control sequence;
S204: obtain this user's internal load balance scheme, this scheme comprises the balance electricity consumption quota between each workshop, the production equipment;
S205: the power consumption to the power consumption equipment of user inside is monitored.
Step S201 is identical to step S103 with above-mentioned steps S101 to step S203, repeats no more at this.What need supplementary notes is, dynamically produces the controllable burden inventory of user enterprise, after the load control sequence, can formulate distributed power generation plan and user power utilization plan in view of the above, obtains this user's internal load balance scheme.Particularly, this scheme comprises balance electricity consumption quota between each workshop, the production equipment etc.
The present invention is to the enterprise customer, through large user's intelligent terminal and electricity consumption collecting device, usefulness ability acquisition terminal, transducer and corresponding watch-dog, the communication network of the main station system of foundation and control centre.The enterprises communication network can adopt wireless and wired two kinds of connected modes according to enterprises characteristics and actual environment.
Through large user's intelligent terminal and management and monitoring main website, set up communication network between the center at the large user of enterprise intelligent terminal and negative keyholed back plate reason information system, auxiliary tone; Between electric company, enterprise customer, set up a data channel based on ICP/IP protocol.Network layer adopts multiple communication mode, is mainly optical fiber communication, also can be by the Internet, and when internet usage inserted, data access was carried out with mutual in the actual outer barrier that is linked into electric company's side network of user under the protection of strong spacer assembly.
The real-time distributed generating and the user power utilization information of being gathered according to large user's intelligent terminal and garden intelligent terminal; In conjunction with the historical power information of enterprise and other basic data; Carry out information analysis and computing, dynamically produce enterprise's controllable burden inventory, load control sequence etc. based on model; Formulate distributed power generation plan and user power utilization plan; For Utilities Electric Co.'s load control plan formulation provides main reference, the distribution control centre carries out the distributed power generation amount and the accurately predicting of the power consumption of loading according to these information, and the strategy and the foundation of optimized dispatching is provided for power distribution network.Utilities Electric Co. precisely controls through the load to the user; Avoid no plan power cuts to limit consumption; Guarantee that electric power netting safe running and supply order are stable; Improve the client electricity consumption level, improve the quality of power supply and grid equipment utilance, adverse effect seasonal, that period imbalance between power supply and demand brings for society and enterprise is reduced to minimum level.
Aspect accurate load management and control, the distribution control centre can monitor and analyze the enterprises load through the grasp to the business electrical customized information, realizes the supervision to enterprises load balancing implementation of the plan.Simultaneously electric company also can combine policy excitation enterprise such as national time-of-use tariffs to carry out initiatively demand response, and effectively the electricity needs in the integration management district power supply area improves regional load balancing ability.
Management organization can exercise supervision to enterprises load balancing implementation of the plan.Obtain the enterprises optimum load balance scheme that system generates automatically, comprise the balanced combination scheme between each workshop of enterprises, the production equipment operation.Based on this scheme, it is collaborative that electric company and enterprise carry out interaction, confirms execution level enterprise load balancing scheme, plan.Under scheme instructs, realize the tranquilization of enterprise's load curve, realize disappearing peak load, improve the electric energy service efficiency.
Each enterprises load reaches under the EQUILIBRIUM CONDITION in directorial area; The analysis according to each business electrical situation, production law, part throttle characteristics, load balancing scheme in the garden is followed by management organization; Generation is the load balancing plan of unit with the directorial area, and accomplishing with the directorial area is the peak load shifting of unit.When arriving on the supply load peak, electric company in conjunction with enterprise's controllable burden, assigns the load control plan to enterprise, and the implementation status of enterprise is assessed and added up according to the ordered electric scheme of formulating.
In sum, the advantage of large user's intelligent terminal of the present invention comprises:
1) data acquisition, storage, management;
2) power consumption equipment power information monitoring;
3) distributed power source monitoring: comprise that photovoltaic generation monitoring, wind power generation monitoring, energy-storage system monitoring, electric automobile discharge and recharge monitoring etc.;
4) interactive service: comprise information customization and issue, electricity charge service, online service, other information etc.;
5) load prediction: comprise power consumption equipment load prediction, distributed power source generating prediction, electric power customization etc.;
6) efficiency management: comprise efficiency analysis, electricity consumption analysis of strategies, energy exception monitoring and alarm, electricity price response plan, load balancing etc.
Fig. 3 is the structural representation that the present invention is based on the load forecast system of large user's intelligent terminal collection, comprises large user's intelligent terminal and coupled control centre's distribution system, wherein,
Said large user's intelligent terminal comprises information acquisition unit, is used to gather real-time distributed power generation amount and user power utilization information; The customer charge acquiring unit that links to each other with said information collecting device is used for the historical power information according to said energy output, said power information and user, sets up the electrical energy consumption analysis model, obtains this user's controllable burden inventory and load control sequence;
Said control centre distribution system comprises the user's distribution predicting unit that links to each other with said customer charge acquiring unit, is used for carrying out the prediction of distributed power generation amount and the prediction of load power consumption according to said control load inventory, said load control sequence.
Fig. 3 is corresponding with Fig. 1, identical among the figure in the operational mode of each unit and the method.
What need supplementary notes is that said intelligent terminal adopts the intel high-performance processor, supports floating-point operation; More than the internal memory 2G, more than the hard disk 500G, adopt 17 cun liquid crystal display screens; Use the single-point touches screen, Dual-Ethernet is supported in integrated design; Take the intranet and extranet isolation method, support 3 road RS-485/232 to insert built-in camera, microphone and stereo loudspeaker; Support 4 road USB interfaces, internal battery keeps system clock and when outage, can in time store significant data, and the EMC4 level is anti-interference, the IP65 degree of protection.
Fig. 4 the present invention is based on the load forecast system implementation example structural representation that large user's intelligent terminal is gathered.
As shown in Figure 4, said control centre distribution system also comprises:
With the scheme of electric power acquiring unit that said user's distribution predicting unit links to each other, be used to obtain this user's internal load balance scheme, this scheme comprises the balance electricity consumption quota between each workshop, the production equipment.
As shown in Figure 4, said large user's intelligent terminal also comprises:
With the information monitoring unit that said scheme of electric power acquiring unit links to each other, be used for the power consumption of the power consumption equipment of user inside is monitored.
Fig. 4 is corresponding with Fig. 2, identical among the figure in the operational mode of each unit and the method.
The above embodiment has only expressed several kinds of execution modes of the present invention, and it describes comparatively concrete and detailed, but can not therefore be interpreted as the restriction to claim of the present invention.Should be pointed out that for the person of ordinary skill of the art under the prerequisite that does not break away from the present invention's design, can also make some distortion and improvement, these all belong to protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, the protection range of patent of the present invention should be as the criterion with accompanying claims.
Claims (6)
1. a load forecast method of gathering based on large user's intelligent terminal is characterized in that, comprising:
Gather real-time distributed power generation amount and user power utilization information;
According to the historical power information of said energy output, said power information and user, set up the electrical energy consumption analysis model, obtain this user's controllable burden inventory and load control sequence;
Carry out the prediction of distributed power generation amount and the prediction of load power consumption according to said control load inventory, said load control sequence.
2. load forecast method of gathering according to claim 1 based on large user's intelligent terminal; It is characterized in that; Carry out according to said control load inventory, said load control sequence comprising after the step of prediction of prediction and load power consumption of distributed power generation amount:
Obtain this user's internal load balance scheme, this scheme comprises the balance electricity consumption quota between each workshop, the production equipment.
3. load forecast method of gathering based on large user's intelligent terminal according to claim 2 is characterized in that, obtains after this user's the step of internal load balance scheme, comprising:
Power consumption to the power consumption equipment of user inside is monitored.
4. a load forecast system of gathering based on large user's intelligent terminal comprises large user's intelligent terminal and coupled control centre's distribution system, it is characterized in that, wherein,
Said large user's intelligent terminal comprises information acquisition unit, is used to gather real-time distributed power generation amount and user power utilization information; The customer charge acquiring unit that links to each other with said information collecting device is used for the historical power information according to said energy output, said power information and user, sets up the electrical energy consumption analysis model, obtains this user's controllable burden inventory and load control sequence;
Said control centre distribution system comprises the user's distribution predicting unit that links to each other with said customer charge acquiring unit, is used for carrying out the prediction of distributed power generation amount and the prediction of load power consumption according to said control load inventory, said load control sequence.
5. load forecast system of gathering based on large user's intelligent terminal according to claim 4 is characterized in that said control centre distribution system also comprises:
With the scheme of electric power acquiring unit that said user's distribution predicting unit links to each other, be used to obtain this user's internal load balance scheme, this scheme comprises the balance electricity consumption quota between each workshop, the production equipment.
6. load forecast system of gathering based on large user's intelligent terminal according to claim 5 is characterized in that said large user's intelligent terminal also comprises:
With the information monitoring unit that said scheme of electric power acquiring unit links to each other, be used for the power consumption of the power consumption equipment of user inside is monitored.
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Address after: 510080 Dongfeng East Road, Dongfeng, Guangdong, Guangzhou, Zhejiang Province, No. 8 Patentee after: ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, GUANGDONG POWER GRID CO., LTD. Address before: 510080 Dongfeng East Road, Dongfeng, Guangdong, Guangzhou, Zhejiang Province, No. 8 Patentee before: Electrical Power Research Institute of Guangdong Power Grid Corporation |