CN106463959B

CN106463959B - Power supply and demand guiding device and power supply and demand guidance method

Info

Publication number: CN106463959B
Application number: CN201580025534.2A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 久山修司; 浅野一哉; 小室正之; 清水政志; 新井幸雄; 小野一哉
Original assignee: Jeffrey Steel Co Ltd
Current assignee: Jeffrey Steel Co Ltd
Priority date: 2014-05-19
Filing date: 2015-05-12
Publication date: 2019-12-03
Anticipated expiration: 2035-05-12
Also published as: JP6160705B2; CN106463959A; WO2015178256A1; JPWO2015178256A1

Abstract

In power supply and demand guiding device (200), production plan acquisition unit (221) obtains the production plan for belonging to the manufacturing works of iron-smelter, amount of power prediction section (222) is based on acquired production plan, calculating predicts the prediction amount of power for the amount of power that each manufacturing works use in temporal sequence, the prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works of calculating is added and is calculated the prediction amount of power of iron-smelter entirety, the prediction amount of power of prediction amount of power and each manufacturing works of the electricity determination section (223) based on iron-smelter entirety is bought in power generation, determine the generation power amount that oneself generates electricity, that buys from electric power enterprise buys electric amount of power, output cuts down ratio, visualization portion (225) is by the prediction amount of power of each manufacturing works, the prediction amount of power of iron-smelter entirety, generation power amount, buy electric amount of power and output cut down ratio when Between sequence variation be shown in monitor (263), the content that alert notification portion (224) cut down output carries out alert notification.

Description

Power supply and demand guidance device and power supply and demand guidance method

Technical Field

The present invention relates to an electric power supply and demand guidance device and an electric power supply and demand guidance method for predicting an amount of electric power used in an iron works.

Background

Conventionally, a large amount of electric power required for production by an iron-making company is provided by 2 methods, i.e., home power generation (hereinafter, power generation) using power generation facilities in an iron-making plant and purchase (hereinafter, power purchase) from an electric power company. Among them, the maximum amount per a predetermined time, for example, 1 hour is determined based on an electric power purchase contract made between an iron-making company and an electric power company with respect to electric power purchased from the electric power company. If the amount of electric power purchased from an electric power company exceeds the maximum contracted amount, the iron-making company pays a huge amount of default money to the electric power company, and the electric power company needs to assume the above power generation/transmission load, which is uneconomical for both parties. Therefore, in many iron works, the amount of electricity consumed by each plant is predicted to increase or decrease the amount of electricity generated at home so as to avoid the amount of electricity purchased from being higher than the amount of contract electricity.

Patent document 1 describes a technique for predicting the amount of electric power used in an iron works. In this technique, a time-series pattern (power load pattern) of the power amount of each plant in the iron works is calculated in advance based on past performance data in the inspection and repair period (the time of the scheduled maintenance), the time of the normal operation, and the start/end of the scheduled maintenance, and the power amount to be used at each time is calculated based on the time-series pattern and future scheduled maintenance data. This makes it possible to predict the power amount of the entire iron works in time series.

Prior art documents

Patent document

Patent document 1: japanese laid-open patent publication No. 8-186932

Disclosure of Invention

Problems to be solved by the invention

However, in the technique described in patent document 1, it is necessary to give a power load pattern in the normal operation in advance. Therefore, there is a problem that, in a hot rolling plant in which the amount of power used greatly varies depending on the amount of production, the deviation is predicted at a time when the variation in the amount of production greatly varies.

The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and an object thereof is to provide an electric power supply and demand guidance device and an electric power supply and demand guidance method that can predict the amount of electric power used in an iron works with high accuracy even when the variation in production amount greatly changes.

Means for solving the problems

In order to solve the above problems and achieve the object, a power supply and demand guidance device according to the present invention includes: a production plan acquisition unit that acquires a production plan of a product in a manufacturing plant belonging to an iron works; an electric power amount prediction means for calculating a predicted electric power amount in which the amount of electric power used in each manufacturing plant is predicted in time series based on the acquired production schedule, and calculating a predicted electric power amount of the entire iron works by adding the calculated predicted electric power amounts of the manufacturing plants; a power generation and purchase amount determination unit configured to determine an amount of power generated by the power generation unit, an amount of power purchased from the power company, and a production amount reduction ratio of the product, based on the predicted amount of power of the entire iron works and the predicted amounts of power of the respective manufacturing plants; a visualization unit configured to display on a monitor a time-series change of the predicted electric power amount of each manufacturing plant, the predicted electric power amount of the entire iron works, the generated electric power amount, the purchased electric power amount, and the production amount reduction ratio; and an alarm notification unit configured to perform alarm notification for the content of the production amount reduction.

In the electric power supply and demand guidance apparatus according to the present invention, the production plan acquisition means acquires a furnace extraction plan of a hot rolling mill, and the electric power amount prediction means calculates a predicted electric power amount that predicts electric power amounts used in the respective manufacturing plants in time series using the hot rolling electric power amount based on the acquired furnace extraction plan.

Further, the power supply and demand guidance method according to the present invention includes: a production plan acquisition step of acquiring a production plan of a product in a manufacturing plant belonging to an iron works; an electric power amount prediction step of calculating a predicted electric power amount in which the electric power amount used by each manufacturing plant is predicted in time series based on the acquired production plan, and calculating a predicted electric power amount of the entire iron works by adding the calculated predicted electric power amounts of the manufacturing plants; a power generation and purchase amount determination step of determining a power generation amount of power generated at home, a purchase amount of power purchased from a power company, and a production amount reduction ratio of products, based on the predicted power amount of the entire iron works and the predicted power amounts of the respective manufacturing plants; a visualization step of displaying on a monitor a time-series change of the predicted electric power amount of each manufacturing plant, the predicted electric power amount of the entire iron works, the generated electric power amount, the purchased electric power amount, and the production amount reduction ratio; and an alarm notification step of performing alarm notification for the content of the production amount reduction.

Effects of the invention

According to the present invention, the amount of electric power used by the iron works can be predicted with high accuracy even when the variation in the production amount greatly changes.

Drawings

Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram showing a schematic configuration of a power grid to which the present invention is applied.

Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram showing a schematic configuration of an electric power supply and demand guidance apparatus according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 3 is a diagram showing an example of a data structure relating to a production plan according to the present embodiment.

Fig. 4 is a diagram showing an example of a data structure relating to the amount of electric power in the present embodiment.

Fig. 5 is a flowchart showing a procedure of the power supply and demand guidance processing according to the present embodiment.

Fig. 6 is a flowchart showing a procedure of the generated electricity purchase amount determination process according to the present embodiment.

Fig. 7 is an explanatory diagram for explaining the effects of the embodiment.

Fig. 8 is a diagram showing an error in prediction of the amount of electric power in the conventional method.

Fig. 9 is a diagram showing an error in prediction of the power amount in the present method.

Fig. 10 is a diagram showing an example of a guidance screen for a predicted value of the accumulated electricity purchase amount after 25 minutes from the time of 35 minutes (60 minutes) in the conventional method.

Fig. 11 is a diagram showing an example of a guidance screen for a predicted value of the accumulated electricity purchase amount after 25 minutes from the time of 35 minutes (60 minutes) in the present method.

Fig. 12 is a diagram showing an example of a guidance screen for the actual value of the accumulated electricity purchased at the time of 60 minutes.

Detailed Description

Hereinafter, a power supply and demand instruction device and a power supply and demand instruction process according to an embodiment of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings. The present invention is not limited to the embodiment. In the description of the drawings, the same reference numerals are used to designate the same parts.

[ Structure of Power grid ]

First, a configuration of a power grid 101 to which the present invention is applied will be described with reference to fig. 1. As shown in fig. 1, the power grid 101 includes a power grid 102, a power line 103, manufacturing plants (a plant 104, B plant 105), other demand sources 106, an on-plant power plant 107, an energy management facility 108, and a power utility plant 109 in an iron plant. The a plant 104, the B plant 105, other demand sources 106, the on-plant power plant 107, and the energy management facility 108 belong to the power grid 102 in the iron works. The a plant 104 and the B plant 105 specifically represent plants related to the production of steel products, such as a hot rolling plant and a steel making plant. The other demand source 106 specifically represents a power demand source outside a manufacturing plant such as an office. The in-plant power plant 107 specifically represents a thermal power plant or the like that utilizes gas generated in the plant. The energy management facility 108 is responsible for grasping the demand of electric power and determining the distribution of the amount of electric power from the a plant 104, the B plant 105, and the other electric power demand sources 106, grasping the indication and actual results of the amount of electric power at the on-plant power generation plant 107, and grasping the indication and actual results of the amount of electric power purchased from the electric power plant 109 of the electric power company. The a plant 104, the B plant 105, other demand sources 106, the on-plant power plant 107, the energy management facility 108, and the electric utility power plant 109 are connected by a power line 103.

The a plant 104, the B plant 105, and other demand sources 106 consume power received via the power line 103. Here, the received power of the a factory 104 and the B factory 105 is used to manufacture (produce) products based on the production plan.

The on-plant power generation plant 107 and the electric power plant 109 are supplied with electric power generated via the power transmission line 103. However, the on-plant power generation plant 107 can only generate power depending on the heat quantity of the gas generated in the plant, and therefore, the maximum power amount is limited in each time zone, and a time depending on the dynamic characteristics of the power generation equipment is required from the generation amount increase instruction to the actual increase of the supplied power. The amount of electric power transmitted from the electric power plant 109 of the electric power utility is set to a maximum amount of electric power contracted between the iron-making utility and the electric power utility.

[ Structure of electric Power supply and demand guide apparatus ]

Next, the configuration of the power supply and demand guidance apparatus 200 applied to the power grid 101 as described above will be described with reference to fig. 2. As shown in fig. 2, in the power supply and demand guidance apparatus 200, the arithmetic processing unit 220, the ROM230, the RAM240, the data collection device 261, the Database (DB)262, the monitor 263, and the input device 264 can transmit and receive data via the transmission path 250 in the apparatus main body 210.

Further, the data collection device 261 can transmit data to the a plant server 271, the B plant server 272, and the energy management server 273 via the transmission path 265. Here, the a-plant server 271 holds the operation plan and the operation actual result of the a-plant installed in the a-plant 104. The B plant server 272 holds an operation plan and an operation actual result of the B plant installed in the B plant 105. The energy management server 273 is provided at the energy management facility 108.

The apparatus main body 210 is implemented using a general-purpose information processing apparatus such as a personal computer or a workstation, and includes an arithmetic processing unit 220, a ROM230, and a RAM 240.

The arithmetic processing unit 220 is realized by hardware such as a CPU. The arithmetic processing unit 220 performs instructions to each unit constituting the power supply and demand guidance apparatus 200, data transmission, and the like based on programs and data stored in the ROM230, a display signal output to the monitor 263, an operation signal input from the input device 264, various information acquired from the DB262, and the like, and collectively controls the operation of the entire power supply and demand guidance apparatus 200. The arithmetic processing unit 220 functions as: a production plan acquisition unit 221 as production plan acquisition means; an electric power amount prediction unit 222 as an electric power amount prediction means; a power generation purchase amount determination unit 223 as a power generation purchase amount determination unit; an alarm notifying section 224 as an alarm notifying means; a visualization unit 225 as visualization means.

The ROM230 stores programs for operating the power supply and demand instruction device 200 to realize various functions provided in the power supply and demand instruction device 200, data used for executing the programs, and the like. Further, an electric power supply and demand guidance program 231 is stored which causes the arithmetic processing unit 220 to function as a production plan acquisition unit 221, an electric power amount prediction unit 222, a power generation and purchase amount determination unit 223, an alarm notification unit 224, and a visualization unit 225, and executes an electric power supply and demand guidance process described later.

The RAM240 is a semiconductor memory used as a work memory of the arithmetic processing unit 220, and includes a memory area for temporarily storing a program executed by the arithmetic processing unit 220, data used for the execution, and the like.

The monitor 263 is implemented by a display device such as an LCD, an EL display, or a CRT display, and displays various screens based on a display signal input from the apparatus main body 210 and a display signal input from the input device 264. The input device 264 is implemented by an input device such as a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, and various switches, and outputs a signal corresponding to an operation input to the apparatus main body 210 and the monitor 263.

The data collection device 261 is implemented by a well-known server computer, a work station, a general-purpose computer such as a personal computer, and the like including an arithmetic device such as a CPU, a main storage device, an auxiliary storage device such as a hard disk or various storage media, a communication device, a display device, an input device, and the like. The data collection device 261 performs data registration processing for collecting data on the production plan or the amount of electric power from the a plant server 271, the B plant server 272, and the energy management server 273 and registering the data in the DB 262.

Specifically, the data collection device 261 collects, from the a-factory server 271, the manufacturing number, the manufacturing start time, and the manufacturing end time of the product manufactured by the a-factory 104, the material number of the material to be the product (hereinafter, material number), the physical properties of the material (hereinafter, material properties), the product number, and the physical properties of the product (hereinafter, product properties), and registers the collected data in the DB 262. The data collection device 261 collects the manufacturing number, the manufacturing start time, the manufacturing end time, the material number, the material characteristic, the product number, and the product characteristic of the product manufactured by the B factory 105 from the B factory server 272, and registers the collected data in the DB 262. The data collection device 261 collects, from the energy management server 273, the amount of power used (actual results) of the a plant 104, the amount of power used (actual results) of the B plant 105, the amount of power used (actual results) of the other power demand sources 106, the amount of power generated (hereinafter, the amount of power generated in the plant) actual results (hereinafter, the amount of power generated in the plant 107) and the maximum amount of power that can be generated (hereinafter, the maximum amount of power generated), and the amount of power actual results (hereinafter, the amount of power purchased) and the amount of power contracted (hereinafter, the maximum amount of power purchased) transmitted from the electric utility power plant 109 to the iron mill power grid 102, and registers them in the DB 262.

The DB262 is a storage device that accumulates (holds) the data collected by the data collection device 261, and is constructed by collecting, registering, and updating the data at regular intervals. The DB262 holds data on the production plan illustrated in fig. 3 and data on the amount of electric power illustrated in fig. 4. The predicted power amount in the data on the production plan shown in fig. 3 is calculated and registered by the power supply and demand instruction process described later. The total power amount, the insufficient power amount, and the yield loss amount in the data on the power amount shown in fig. 4 are calculated and registered by the power supply and demand instruction processing described later. The priority mode is a method of supplying power with priority when the amount of power is insufficient, and either the power generation priority or the power purchase priority is determined in advance for each time slot and registered.

[ Power supply and demand guidance treatment ]

Next, the power supply and demand instruction processing will be described. Fig. 5 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure of the power supply and demand instruction processing performed by the arithmetic processing unit 220 in the apparatus main body 210. The power supply and demand guidance device 200 performs the above-described data registration process by the data collection device 261, and the arithmetic processing unit 220 performs the power supply and demand guidance process in the processing procedure of fig. 5 to implement the power supply and demand guidance method. The power supply and demand instruction processing is realized by the arithmetic processing unit 220 reading and executing the power supply and demand instruction program 231 stored in the ROM 230. The power supply and demand instruction processing is started when the arithmetic processing unit 220 receives an arithmetic start command from the input device 264.

First, in the processing of step S501, the production plan acquisition unit 221 acquires a production plan stored in the DB 262. That is, the production plan acquisition unit 221 acquires data of a production number, a production start time, a production end time, a material number, a material characteristic, a product number, and a product characteristic from the DB262 for a predetermined product produced by each production plant (the a plant 104 and the B plant 105) after a predetermined time from the current time to the future (in the present embodiment, after 2 hours in the future, for example).

As another embodiment for acquiring the production plan in the process of step S501, as shown in fig. 2, the production plan acquisition unit 221 may acquire the production plan at a constant cycle (for example, 1 minute cycle in the present embodiment) from the process computer 281 provided at a lower level than the a-plant server 271 via a gateway (not shown). The process computer 281 receives a production plan from the a-plant server 271 provided at a higher level, adds a manufacturing progress or a correction amount from an operator to the received production plan, and transmits a manufacturing instruction to the manufacturing equipment 282 at a corrected production time. That is, the manufacturing instructions from the process computer 281 generally coincide with the actual manufacturing time, and therefore a more accurate production plan can be obtained. Note that, the process computer 281 may be provided in the B factory server 272, and similar processing can be performed in this case.

For example, taking a hot rolling mill as an example, the process computer 281 may be configured as a rolling rhythm computer that controls a slab withdrawal pitch from a heating furnace. The hot rolling process is composed of a series of facilities from a heating furnace, a rolling mill, a cooling facility, and a coiling facility, and the rolling rhythm computer acquires the progress of rolling, cooling, and coiling of a slab that has been extracted from the heating furnace, predicts the time required for the completion of coiling after the rolling, cooling, and extraction from the heating furnace for a predetermined slab that is extracted from the heating furnace in the future based on the progress information, and applies correction to a heating furnace extraction schedule, which is a production schedule acquired from a higher-level computer (plant server), based on the predicted time and a correction amount from an operator. Then, the rolling rhythm computer transmits a slab extraction instruction to the heating furnace at a time according to the corrected heating furnace extraction schedule. When the rolling tempo computer is used in the processing of step S501, the production plan acquisition unit 221 acquires the corrected latest heating furnace extraction plan.

Next, in the processing of step S502, the electric power amount prediction unit 222 predicts the electric power amount required 2 hours and later in the future by the following method every predetermined time (in the present embodiment, the scale of 1 minute, for example). That is, the electric power amount prediction unit 222 first predicts the amount of electric power used for manufacturing each product to be manufactured 2 hours and later in the future, by a function f expressed by the following equation (1) using the material characteristics and the product characteristics of the product as input variables.

[ mathematical formula 1]

The amount of power used for production ═ f (raw material property 1, raw material property 2, …, product property 1, product property 2,) … (1)

For example, taking a hot rolling mill as an example, the function f is specifically configured as shown in the following formula (2).

[ mathematical formula 2]

p(i)＝a×w(i)×k(i)β×log(H(i)/h(i)) …(2)

Wherein,

p (i): amount of electric power used for manufacturing hot-rolled coil product i

w (i): raw material weight of product i

k (i): product hardness of product i

H (i): raw material thickness of product i

h (i): product thickness of product i

α, β: adjustment factor depending on manufacturing environment of rolling equipment or the like

The electric power amount prediction unit 222 writes the calculated electric power amount (predicted electric power amount) used for manufacturing each product into a data recorder for a production plan in the DB262 as shown in fig. 3.

The electric power amount prediction unit 222 calculates and predicts the electric power amount (predicted electric power amount) used by each manufacturing plant by the following equation (3) every 1 minute based on the production schedule of each manufacturing plant and the data of the predicted electric power amount as shown in fig. 3.

[ mathematical formula 3]

pt＝∑i(p(i)×c(i))+γ …(3)

Wherein,

pt: predicted electric power amount at time t to t +1

p (i): amount of power used for manufacture of product i

c (i): proportion of time to manufacture product i from time t to t +1

i: manufacturing a predetermined product number at time t-t +1

γ: base power amount of idling of manufacturing facility or the like

The electric power amount prediction unit 222 searches the required electric power amount of the other source 106 in each time band from a 12 × 2 two-dimensional lookup table having month and day and night as keys. The value of the look-up table is an average value calculated based on past performance data. The electric power amount prediction unit 222 sets the total value of the electric power amount (used electric power amount) of the a plant 104, the electric power amount (used electric power amount) of the B plant 105, and the electric power amount (used electric power amount) of the other source 106 at each time point obtained as described above as the predicted value of the electric power amount (total electric power amount) of the entire plant. Then, the electric power amount prediction unit 222 calculates an insufficient electric power amount obtained by subtracting the maximum generated electric power amount and the maximum purchased electric power amount from the total electric power amount. Finally, the electric power amount prediction unit 222 writes the calculated electric power amount of the a plant 104, the calculated electric power amount of the B plant 105, the calculated electric power amount of the other source 106, the calculated total electric power amount, and the calculated insufficient electric power amount into a data recorder for the electric power amount in the DB262 as shown in fig. 4.

When the production plan obtaining unit 221 obtains the corrected latest furnace extraction plan by using the rolling tempo computer in step S501, the electric power amount predicting unit 222 calculates the predicted electric power amount in which the electric power amount used in each manufacturing plant is predicted in time series by using the hot-rolling electric power amounts represented by the above-described equations (1) to (3) based on the furnace extraction plan in step S502.

Next, in the processing of step S503, the generated electricity purchase amount determination unit 223 performs a generated electricity purchase amount determination process of determining the distribution of the generated electricity amount and the purchase electricity amount for each time slot of 1 minute to 2 hours and later in the future. Specifically, the generated electricity amount determination unit 223 executes the generated electricity amount determination process in the order of the flowchart shown in fig. 6. That is, when the total amount of electric power is equal to or less than the sum of the maximum generated electric power amount and the maximum purchased electric power amount (yes in S601), the priority mode is the power generation priority (yes in step S602), and the total amount of electric power is equal to or less than the maximum generated electric power amount (yes in step S603), the generated electric power amount is set to the same value as the total amount of electric power, and the purchased electric power amount is set to 0 (step S604). Thus, the process of step S503 is completed, and the power supply and demand instruction process proceeds to the process of step S504.

In the processing of step S503, when the total amount of electric power is equal to or less than the sum of the maximum generated electric power amount and the maximum purchased electric power amount (yes in step S601), the priority mode is power generation priority (yes in step S602), and the total amount of electric power is larger than the maximum generated electric power amount (no in step S603), the generated power purchased amount determination unit 223 sets the generated electric power amount to the same value as the maximum generated electric power amount, and sets the purchased electric power amount to a value obtained by subtracting the maximum generated electric power amount from the total electric power amount (step S605). Thus, the process of step S503 is completed, and the power supply and demand instruction process proceeds to the process of step S504.

In the processing of step S503, when the total amount of electric power is equal to or less than the sum of the maximum generated electric power amount and the maximum purchased electric power amount (yes in step S601), the priority mode is power purchase priority (no in step S602), and the total amount of electric power is equal to or less than the maximum purchased electric power amount (yes in step S606), the generated power purchased amount determination unit 223 sets the purchased electric power amount to the same value as the total amount of electric power and sets the generated electric power amount to 0 (step S607). Thus, the process of step S503 is completed, and the power supply and demand instruction process proceeds to the process of step S504.

In the process of step S503, when the total amount of electric power is equal to or less than the sum of the maximum generated electric power amount and the maximum purchased electric power amount (yes in step S601), the priority mode is power purchase priority (no in step S602), and the total amount of electric power is larger than the maximum purchased electric power amount (no in step S606), the generated power purchase amount determination unit 223 sets the purchased electric power amount to the same value as the maximum purchased electric power amount, and sets the generated electric power amount to a value obtained by subtracting the maximum purchased electric power amount from the total electric power amount (step S608). Thus, the process of step S503 is completed, and the power supply and demand instruction process proceeds to the process of step S504.

In the process of step S503, if the total amount of electric power is larger than the sum of the maximum generated electric power amount and the maximum purchased electric power amount (no in step S601), the generated-power-purchase-amount determining unit 223 sets the generated electric power amount to the same value as the maximum generated electric power amount and sets the purchased electric power amount to the same value as the maximum purchased electric power amount (step S609). Then, the generated electricity purchase amount determination unit 223 sets the insufficient amount of electricity to a value obtained by subtracting the maximum generated electricity amount and the maximum purchase electricity amount from the total amount of electricity, and sets the yield reduction rate (production amount reduction ratio) to a value obtained by dividing the insufficient amount of electricity by the amount of electricity used in the plant of the predetermined yield reduction candidate (step S610). The alarm notification unit 224 transmits an alarm notification notifying that the production amount is reduced to the server or monitor 263 of the plant of the candidate for reduction in production amount (step S611). Thus, the process of step S503 is completed, and the power supply and demand instruction process proceeds to the process of step S504.

The visualization unit 225 outputs the predicted power amount, the total power amount, the generated power amount, the purchased power amount, and the time-series change in the yield reduction rate of each manufacturing plant calculated as described above to the monitor 263.

In the processing of step S504, the arithmetic processing unit 220 returns to the processing of step S501 at a constant time interval (at intervals of several tens of seconds to several tens of minutes) and repeatedly executes the processing up to step S503 while receiving no arithmetic processing stop command from the input device 264 (no in step S504). When receiving the arithmetic processing stop command from the input device 264 (yes in step S504), the arithmetic processing unit 220 ends the series of power supply and demand instruction processing.

Fig. 4 shows an example in which the power amount (MWh) at a certain point in time is set as a reference value 100 and an index (dimension is 1) is set. For example, in 5 minutes 00 seconds, 3 months, 1 days, 10 days in 2000, the amount of electricity used by the a plant 104 is 100, the amount of electricity used by the B plant 105 is 150, the amount of electricity used by the other demand sources 106 is 100, and the total amount of electricity is 350. In this case, since the priority mode is power purchase priority and the maximum power purchase amount is 260, the power demand instruction process calculates the on-plant generated power amount to be 100 and the power purchase amount to be 260.

In addition, 30 minutes 00 seconds at 3/1/11 in 2000, the amount of power used in the a plant 104 is 120, the amount of power used in the B plant 105 is 110, the amount of power used in the other demand sources 106 is 100, and the total amount of power is 330. At this time, since the maximum generated power amount is 150 and the maximum purchased power amount is 150, the on-plant generated power amount is 150, the purchased power amount is 150, and the insufficient power amount is 30, and the yield reduction rate of the a plant 104 as the candidate for the yield reduction is 25%.

As described above, according to the power supply and demand guidance processing of the power supply and demand guidance apparatus of the present embodiment, the amount of power in each plant is predicted based on the production plan, and therefore, the amount of power can be predicted with high accuracy even at a time when the amount of production abruptly changes. Therefore, it is possible to prevent power from being purchased in excess of the contract power amount, and it is possible to prevent uneconomical payment such as payment of a default fee. Further, the amount of generated power, the amount of purchased power, and the production amount reduction ratio in the order of purchase power and generation priority are calculated, and these can be instructed to the operators of the manufacturing plants and the energy management facilities. Therefore, it is also effective to prevent an increase in power generation cost due to excessive power generation and a loss in productivity due to excessive production reduction.

Although the embodiments to which the invention made by the present inventor is applied have been described above, the present invention is not limited by the description and drawings of a part of the disclosure of the present invention made based on the embodiments. That is, other embodiments, examples, operation techniques, and the like, which are made by those skilled in the art based on the present embodiment, are all included in the scope of the present invention.

[ examples ]

Next, the effects of the present embodiment will be described with reference to fig. 7. Fig. 7 is a diagram showing actual and predicted values of the total amount of electric power in the iron works having the power grid 101 shown in fig. 1, and changes in the production amounts of the respective manufacturing plants (a plant 104 and B plant 105). As is clear from the middle and lower graphs of fig. 7, the throughput of the a plant 104 and the B plant 105 sharply increases with the interval between times t-1 and t. In the present embodiment, the amount of electric power is predicted by the electric power supply and demand guide process at the time between the times t-1 and t.

In the conventional method, the amount of electric power is predicted by a method of extrapolating from the moving average of the total amount of electric power of the immediately preceding actual results, and therefore, as shown by the broken line indicated by the upper-stage coordinate diagram of fig. 7, it is predicted that the amount of electric power at the time t, t +1 is reduced from the time t-1. However, since the actual production amount increases, the amount of electric power increases as shown by the solid line, and the prediction deviates greatly.

On the other hand, according to the electric power supply and demand guidance processing of the present embodiment, since the arithmetic processing unit 220 performs the electric power amount prediction corresponding to the increase in the amount of production, as shown by the dotted line in the upper graph of fig. 7, it is known that a predicted value closer to the actual performance value than the predicted value of the conventional method is obtained.

As shown in fig. 8, the prediction error of the required power amount in the conventional method is σ 4.6MWh, but as shown in fig. 9, the prediction error in the method is σ 1.7 MWh. From this, it is also understood that the present method reduces the prediction error compared with the conventional method, and obtains a value close to the actual performanceThe predicted value of (2). In the graphs shown in fig. 8 and 9, the vertical axis represents the predicted value of the electric power amount, the horizontal axis represents the actual value of the electric power amount, and R in the graph is²Is to determine the coefficients.

Fig. 10 to 12 show an example of a power purchase amount guidance screen, in which the vertical axis shows the accumulated power purchase amount and the horizontal axis shows time. In the conventional method, as shown in fig. 10, the accumulated electricity consumption after 25 minutes from the 35 minute point (60 minutes point) is predicted to be 77 MWh. Therefore, the conventional method has an error of 13MWh compared to the actual value of the accumulated electricity consumption at 60 minutes shown in fig. 12, which is 90 MWh. On the other hand, in the present method, as shown in fig. 11, the accumulated electricity consumption amount 25 minutes after the 35-minute time point (60-minute time point) is predicted to be 96MWh, and the error from the actual value is 6 MWh. Therefore, even in the prediction of the accumulated amount of power purchased, the method can obtain a predicted value close to the actual result value with a reduced prediction error compared with the conventional method.

In the above-described embodiment, an example of an iron works having a power grid for 2 manufacturing plants shown in fig. 1 was described, but the present invention is not limited to this, and may be applied to a power grid for 3 or more manufacturing plants.

Industrial applicability

As described above, the power supply and demand guidance apparatus and the power supply and demand guidance method according to the present invention can predict the amount of power used by the iron works with high accuracy, and thus can be applied to the iron works including the power generation facility.

Description of the reference symbols

101 electric power network

102 electric power network in iron works

103 power transmission line

104A plant

105B plant

106 other sources of demand

107 power plant in plant

108 energy management facility

109 electric power enterprise power plant

200 electric power supply and demand guiding device

210 device body

220 arithmetic processing unit

221 production plan obtaining part

222 electric power amount prediction unit

223 electric power generation buying determination part

224 alarm notification section

225 visualization part

230 ROM

231 power supply and demand guide program

240 RAM

250 transfer path

261 data collection device

262 Database (DB)

263 monitor

264 input device

265 transfer path

271A factory server

272B factory server

273 energy management server

281 process computer

282 manufacturing equipment

Claims

1. An electric power supply and demand guidance device is characterized by comprising:

a production plan acquisition unit that acquires a production plan of a product in a manufacturing plant belonging to an iron works;

an electric power amount prediction means for calculating a predicted electric power amount in which the amount of electric power used in each manufacturing plant is predicted in time series based on the acquired production schedule, and calculating a predicted electric power amount of the entire iron works by adding the calculated predicted electric power amounts of the manufacturing plants;

a power generation and purchase amount determination unit configured to determine an amount of power generated by the power generation unit, an amount of power purchased from the power company, and a production amount reduction ratio of the product, based on the predicted amount of power of the entire iron works and the predicted amounts of power of the respective manufacturing plants;

a visualization unit configured to display on a monitor a time-series change of the predicted electric power amount of each manufacturing plant, the predicted electric power amount of the entire iron works, the generated electric power amount, the purchased electric power amount, and the production amount reduction ratio; and

an alarm notification unit for performing alarm notification on the content of the production amount reduction,

the production plan acquisition unit acquires the production plan used in actual manufacturing at a certain cycle of the order of minutes from a process computer provided at a lower level of a server of the manufacturing plant,

the generated electricity purchase amount determination means compares the sum of the maximum generated electricity amount and the maximum purchase electricity amount with the predicted electricity amount of the whole iron works,

then, a priority mode which is predetermined for each time zone and indicates a supply method which gives priority when the amount of electric power is insufficient is checked,

then, the predicted amount of electric power of the whole iron works is compared with the maximum amount of electric power generated or the maximum amount of electric power purchased, and the amount of electric power generated, the amount of electric power purchased, and the production amount reduction ratio are determined based on the confirmed priority mode.

2. The electric power supply and demand guide apparatus according to claim 1,

the production plan acquisition means acquires a furnace extraction plan of a hot rolling mill,

the electric power amount prediction means calculates a predicted electric power amount that predicts the electric power amount used in each manufacturing plant in time series using the hot rolling electric power amount based on the acquired heating furnace extraction schedule.

3. An electric power supply and demand guidance method, comprising:

a production plan acquisition step of acquiring a production plan of a product in a manufacturing plant belonging to an iron works;

an electric power amount prediction step of calculating a predicted electric power amount in which the electric power amount used by each manufacturing plant is predicted in time series based on the acquired production plan, and calculating a predicted electric power amount of the entire iron works by adding the calculated predicted electric power amounts of the manufacturing plants;

a power generation and purchase amount determination step of determining a power generation amount of power generated at home, a purchase amount of power purchased from a power company, and a production amount reduction ratio of products, based on the predicted power amount of the entire iron works and the predicted power amounts of the respective manufacturing plants;

a visualization step of displaying on a monitor a time-series change of the predicted electric power amount of each manufacturing plant, the predicted electric power amount of the entire iron works, the generated electric power amount, the purchased electric power amount, and the production amount reduction ratio; and

an alarm notification step of performing alarm notification for the content of the production amount reduction,

the production plan acquisition step acquires the production plan used in actual manufacturing at a certain cycle of the order of minutes from a process computer provided at a lower level of a server of the manufacturing plant,

the electricity generation and purchase amount determining step compares the sum of the maximum amount of generated electricity and the maximum amount of purchased electricity with the predicted amount of electricity for the entire iron works,