Abstract
In this study, the performance of sixteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating extreme precipitation indices over West Africa has been evaluated. Nine extreme precipitation indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) have been used. The performance of CMIP6 models and their ensemble mean was examined by comparing the model results to that of Global Precipitation Climatology Project One-Degree Daily Dataset (GPCP) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 (TRMM) gridded observations during the present-day period 1997–2014 with focus on the summer months (i.e., June–July–August, JJA). Our results show that CMIP6 models reasonably reproduce the spatial patterns of the extreme precipitation indices over the entire region, although their performance is quite different between Sahel and Guinea coast subregions. The gridded observations exhibit significant differences in their estimates of the indices evaluated, and the CMIP6 models are generally closer to GPCP than to TRMM. The models broadly exhibit too many consecutive wet days (CWD) resulting in widespread overestimation over entire West Africa. Also, the heavy (R10 mm) and very heavy (R20 mm) precipitation days are considerably overestimated especially over the mountain regions. Overall, the ensemble mean outperforms any individual model at capturing mean distributions of the extreme precipitation indices, particularly in comparison to the two gridded observations.
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Acknowledgements
We thank the modelling centers that provided the CMIP6 datasets described in Table 1. The data is available from the ESGF archive of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (https://esgf-node.ipsl.upmc.fr/projects/cmip6-ipsl/) as a contribution to CMIP6 through the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) working group on coupled modelling. We also acknowledge the centers that provided gridded precipitation datasets: TRMM TMPA 3B42 was provided by the NASA GSFC Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Laboratory (https://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/earth/mesoscale); and GPCP 1DD was downloaded from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration /National Centre for Environmental Information (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/wdcmet/data-access-search-viewer-tools/global-precipitation-climatology-project-gpcp-clearinghouse). Aissatou Faye thanks the Laboratoire Mixte International (LMI-ECLAIR2) for the financial support.
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Faye, A., Akinsanola, A.A. Evaluation of extreme precipitation indices over West Africa in CMIP6 models. Clim Dyn 58, 925–939 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05942-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05942-2