[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc13/79693.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Brücker, Herbert
  • Bertoli, Simone
  • Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús
Abstract
The analysis of how the economic crisis in Europe has reshaped migration flows faces two challenges: (i) the confounding influence of correlated changes in the attractiveness of alternative destinations, and (ii) the role of rapidly changing expectations about the evolution of the economic conditions in various countries. This paper addresses the first challenge by controlling for multilateral resistance to migration, and the second one by incorporating 10-year bond yields as an explanatory variable in a study of European bilateral migration flows to Germany between 2006 and 2012. We show that, while expectations and current economic conditions at origin are significant determinants of migration, diversion effects account for 78 percent of the observed increase in German gross migration inflows.

Suggested Citation

  • Brücker, Herbert & Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "The European Crisis and Migration to Germany: Expectations and the Diversion of Migration Flows," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79693, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79693
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/79693/1/VfS_2013_pid_872.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Markus Eberhardt & Christian Helmers & Hubert Strauss, 2013. "Do Spillovers Matter When Estimating Private Returns to R&D?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 436-448, May.
    2. Lewer, Joshua J. & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 2008. "A gravity model of immigration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 164-167, April.
    3. Antonio Spilimbergo & Gordon H. Hanson, 1999. "Illegal Immigration, Border Enforcement, and Relative Wages: Evidence from Apprehensions at the U.S.-Mexico Border," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1337-1357, December.
    4. Michel Beine & Pauline Bourgeon & Jean‐Charles Bricongne, 2019. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 117-152, January.
    5. Burda, Michael C, 1995. "Migration and the Option Value of Waiting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1229, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Schmidheiny, Kurt & Brülhart, Marius, 2011. "On the equivalence of location choice models: Conditional logit, nested logit and Poisson," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 214-222, March.
    7. Dustmann, Christian & Kirchkamp, Oliver, 2002. "The optimal migration duration and activity choice after re-migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 351-372, April.
    8. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1970. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Harry W. Richardson (ed.), Regional Economics, chapter 9, pages 115-133, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
    10. Small, Kenneth A & Rosen, Harvey S, 1981. "Applied Welfare Economics with Discrete Choice Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(1), pages 105-130, January.
    11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
    12. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529.
    13. Dustmann, Christian, 2003. "Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-369, April.
    14. Farré, Lídia & Fasani, Francesco, 2013. "Media exposure and internal migration — Evidence from Indonesia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 48-61.
    15. de Palma, Andre & Kilani, Karim, 2007. "Invariance of conditional maximum utility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 137-146, January.
    16. Bernoth, Kerstin & Erdogan, Burcu, 2012. "Sovereign bond yield spreads: A time-varying coefficient approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 639-656.
    17. Simone Bertoli & Jesus Fernandez-Huertas Moraga & Francesc Ortega, 2011. "Immigration Policies and the Ecuadorian Exodus," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 57-76, March.
    18. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Tosetti, Elisa, 2011. "Large panels with common factors and spatial correlation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 182-202, April.
    19. Simone Bertoli & Jesus Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2012. "Visa Policies, Networks and the Cliff at the Border," Working Papers 2012-12, FEDEA.
    20. David McKenzie & Caroline Theoharides & Dean Yang, 2014. "Distortions in the International Migrant Labor Market: Evidence from Filipino Migration and Wage Responses to Destination Country Economic Shocks," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 49-75, April.
    21. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    22. Michael Fertig, 2001. "The economic impact of EU-enlargement: assessing the migration potential," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 707-720.
    23. Herbert Brücker & Philipp J. H. Schröder, 2012. "International Migration With Heterogeneous Agents: Theory and Evidence for Germany, 1967–2009," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 152-182, February.
    24. Caggiano, Giovanni & Greco, Luciano, 2012. "Fiscal and financial determinants of Eurozone sovereign spreads," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 774-776.
    25. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
    26. Michèle Belot & Sjef Ederveen, 2012. "Cultural barriers in migration between OECD countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 1077-1105, July.
    27. Pessino, Carola, 1991. "Sequential migration theory and evidence from Peru," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 55-87, July.
    28. Peter Arcidiacono & Robert A. Miller, 2011. "Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1823-1867, November.
    29. World Bank, 2012. "World Development Indicators 2012," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6014.
    30. Ralph Rotte & Michael Vogler, 2000. "The effects of development on migration: Theoretical issues and new empirical evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(3), pages 485-508.
    31. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    32. Hanson, Gordon H., 2010. "International Migration and the Developing World," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4363-4414, Elsevier.
    33. Artuc, Erhan, 2013. "PPML estimation of dynamic discrete choice models with aggregate shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6480, The World Bank.
    34. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521747387, September.
    35. Grogger, Jeffrey & Hanson, Gordon H., 2011. "Income maximization and the selection and sorting of international migrants," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-57, May.
    36. Christopher F Baum, 2006. "An Introduction to Modern Econometrics using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, number imeus, March.
    37. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    38. Herbert Brücker & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2006. "On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 735-754, September.
    39. Djajic, Slobodan & Milbourne, Ross, 1988. "A general equilibrium model of guest-worker migration : The source-country perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 335-351, November.
    40. Gordon H. Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2012. "Birth Rates and Border Crossings: Latin American Migration to the US, Canada, Spain and the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 707-726, June.
    41. Hans-Werner Sinn & Gebhard Flaig & Martin Werding & Sonja Munz & Nicola Düll & Herbert Hofmann, 2001. "EU enlargement and labour-force migration: Proposals for a gradual convergence of labour markets," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2.
    42. Cardell, N. Scott, 1997. "Variance Components Structures for the Extreme-Value and Logistic Distributions with Application to Models of Heterogeneity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 185-213, April.
    43. Pia Orrenius & Madeline Zavodny, 2003. "Do amnesty programs reduce undocumented immigration? Evidence from Irca," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 40(3), pages 437-450, August.
    44. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2001. "Eastern Enlargement and EU Labour Markets," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 2(1), pages 49-68, January.
    45. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    46. Miguel A. Segoviano & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 2010/120, International Monetary Fund.
    47. Elsner, Benjamin & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2013. "10 Years After: EU Enlargement, Closed Borders, and Migration to Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 7130, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    48. Papola, Andrea, 2004. "Some developments on the cross-nested logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 833-851, November.
    49. Erhan Artuç & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2010. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1008-1045, June.
    50. Wen, Chieh-Hua & Koppelman, Frank S., 2001. "The generalized nested logit model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 627-641, August.
    51. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, July.
    52. Michael A. Clemens, 2011. "Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 83-106, Summer.
    53. Salvador Barrios & Per Iversen & Magdalena Lewandowska & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Determinants of intra-euro area government bond spreads during the financial crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 388, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    54. repec:hal:journl:peer-00796743 is not listed on IDEAS
    55. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Indicators 2013," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13191.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bertoli, Simone & Brücker, Herbert & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2016. "The European crisis and migration to Germany," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 61-72.
    2. Bertoli, Simone & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús, 2013. "Multilateral resistance to migration," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 79-100.
    3. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    4. Simone Bertoli & Jesus Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2012. "Visa Policies, Networks and the Cliff at the Border," Working Papers 2012-12, FEDEA.
    5. Simon Winter, 2020. "“It’s the Economy, Stupid!”: On the Relative Impact of Political and Economic Determinants on Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 207-252, April.
    6. Nina Neubecker & Marcel Smolka & Anne Steinbacher, 2017. "Networks And Selection In International Migration To Spain," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1265-1286, July.
    7. Nicole B. Simpson & Chad Sparber, 2013. "The Short‐ and Long‐Run Determinants of Less‐Educated Immigrant Flows into U.S. States," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(2), pages 414-438, October.
    8. Brücker, Herbert, 2014. "Arbeitnehmerfreizügigkeit und Finanzkrise: Reagieren Migrationsströme tatsächlich nicht auf asymmetrische Schocks?," Beiträge zur Jahrestagung 2014 (Goettingen) 107395, Verein für Socialpolitik, Ausschuss für Wirtschaftssysteme und Institutionenökonomik.
    9. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
    10. Parag Mahajan & Dean Yang, 2020. "Taken by Storm: Hurricanes, Migrant Networks, and US Immigration," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 250-277, April.
    11. Albert MILLOGO & Ines TROJETTE & Nicolas PÉRIDY, 2021. "Are government policies efficient to regulate immigration? Evidence from France," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 53, pages 23-49.
    12. Libman, Alexander & Herrmann-Pillath, Carsten & Yadav, Gaurav, 2013. "Are human rights and economic well-being substitutes? The evidence from migration patterns across the Indian states," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 139-164.
    13. Huaxin Wang-Lu & Octasiano Miguel Valerio Mendoza, 2022. "Job Prospects and Labour Mobility in China," Papers 2207.08282, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    14. Thomas Steinwachs, 2019. "Geography Matters: Spatial Dimensions of Trade, Migration and Growth," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 81.
    15. Djajic, Slobodan & Kirdar, Murat G. & Vinogradova, Alexandra, 2016. "Source-country earnings and emigration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 46-67.
    16. Simone Bertoli & Hillel Rapoport, 2015. "Heaven's Swing Door: Endogenous Skills, Migration Networks, and the Effectiveness of Quality-Selective Immigration Policies," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 117(2), pages 565-591, April.
    17. Bertoli, S. & Fernández-Huertas Moraga, J. & Ortega, F., 2013. "Crossing the border: Self-selection, earnings and individual migration decisions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 75-91.
    18. Daniel Meierrieks & Laura Renner, 2017. "Stymied ambition: does a lack of economic freedom lead to migration?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 977-1005, July.
    19. Boeri, Tito & Brücker, Herbert, 2005. "Migration, Co-ordination Failures and EU Enlargement," IZA Discussion Papers 1600, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga & Sekou Keita, 2017. "The Elasticity of the Migrant Labour Supply: Evidence from Temporary Filipino Migrants," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 1822-1834, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79693. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.