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A simple approach to estimate long-term interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Driessen, Joost
  • Nijman, Theodore E.
  • Simon, Zorka
Abstract
We propose an easy to implement yield curve extrapolation method to determine long-term interest rates suitable for regulatory valuation. We empirically evaluate this approach for the German nominal bond market, by estimating the model on bonds with maturities up to 20 years and assessing the out-of-sample performance for bonds with maturities beyond 20 years. Even though observed long-term yields are somewhat lower than the predicted yields, the method performs quite well empirically given its simplicity. We perform a case study on pension fund liability valuation and show that our proposed method would have a substantial impact on liability values.

Suggested Citation

  • Driessen, Joost & Nijman, Theodore E. & Simon, Zorka, 2022. "A simple approach to estimate long-term interest rates," SAFE Working Paper Series 238, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:238
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Balter, Anne G. & Pelsser, Antoon & Schotman, Peter C., 2021. "What does a term structure model imply about very long-term interest rates?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 202-219.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Bonds; Term Structure of Interest Rates; Segmentation; Liquidity; Flight-to-safety; Credit Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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