[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/kitwps/113.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dilution effects, population growth and economic growth under human capital accumulation and endogenous technological change

Author

Listed:
  • Bucci, Alberto
  • Eraydın, Levent
  • Müller, Moritz
Abstract
This paper answers the following two questions: 1) In the data, can we find a dilution effect of population growth also on per-capita human capital investment? If yes, 2) how can we use this fact to explain theoretically the existence of a differential impact of population change on economic growth across countries? In the first part of the article we document empirically the considerable across-countries heterogeneity of a dilution effect of population growth also in regard to the process of per-capita human capital formation and observe that, at a country's level, population growth may be relevant (either positively or negatively) for economic growth depending on the specific way it affects the process of schooling-acquisition by agents. In the second part of the paper we use these results in order to build a multi-sector growth model which is capable of accounting (depending on the strength of the found dilution effect of population growth on per-capita human capital formation) for the non-monotonous correlation between demographic and economic growth rates in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Bucci, Alberto & Eraydın, Levent & Müller, Moritz, 2018. "Dilution effects, population growth and economic growth under human capital accumulation and endogenous technological change," Working Paper Series in Economics 113, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kitwps:113
    DOI: 10.5445/IR/1000079884
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/175350/1/1013757718.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.5445/IR/1000079884?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Benassy, Jean-Pascal, 1998. "Is there always too little research in endogenous growth with expanding product variety?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 61-69, January.
    3. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang, 2007. "Do High Birth Rates Hamper Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 110-117, February.
    4. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    5. Devereux, Michael B & Head, Allen C & Lapham, Beverly J, 1996. "Monopolistic Competition, Increasing Returns, and the Effects of Government Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(2), pages 233-254, May.
    6. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    7. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    8. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
    9. Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2013. "Life Expectancy, Schooling, and Lifetime Labor Supply: Theory and Evidence Revisited," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(5), pages 2055-2086, September.
    10. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, pages 61-89, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Boikos, Spyridon & Bucci, Alberto & Stengos, Thanasis, 2013. "Non-monotonicity of fertility in human capital accumulation and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 44-59.
    12. Gary S. Becker & H. Gregg Lewis, 1974. "Interaction between Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of the Family: Marriage, Children, and Human Capital, pages 81-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Devereux, Michael B. & Head, Allen C. & Lapham, Beverly J., 1996. "Aggregate fluctuations with increasing returns to specialization and scale," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 627-656, April.
    14. Michael B. Devereux & Allen C. Head & Beverly J. Lapham, 2000. "Government Spending and Welfare with Returns to Specialization," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 102(4), pages 547-561, December.
    15. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    16. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    17. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-477 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Jones, Charles I., 2005. "Growth and Ideas," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1063-1111, Elsevier.
    19. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-784, August.
    20. Daniel Cohen & Marcelo Soto, 2007. "Growth and human capital: good data, good results," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-76, March.
    21. Tsangyao Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Frederick W. Deale & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth Over 1870-2013: Evidence from a Bootstrapped Panel-Granger Causality Test," Working Papers 201431, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    22. repec:bla:scandj:v:102:y:2000:i:4:p:547-61 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Judith Banister & David E. Bloom & Larry Rosenberg, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in China," PGDA Working Papers 5310, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    24. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 1995. "Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(4), pages 543-555, November.
    25. Takatoshi Ito & Andrew Rose, 2010. "The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_08-2.
    26. Eric A. Hanushek & Ludger Woessmann, 2008. "The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 607-668, September.
    27. Bruce E. Hansen, 2000. "Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 575-604, May.
    28. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M., 1994. "The role of human capital in economic development evidence from aggregate cross-country data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 143-173, October.
    29. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    30. Michael Kremer, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716.
    31. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    32. Hongbin Li & Prashant Loyalka & Scott Rozelle & Binzhen Wu, 2017. "Human Capital and China's Future Growth," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 25-48, Winter.
    33. Paul Segerstrom & Elias Dinopoulos, 1999. "A Schumpeterian Model of Protection and Relative Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 450-472, June.
    34. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1993. "Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262570971, April.
    35. Bucci, Alberto, 2008. "Population growth in a model of economic growth with human capital accumulation and horizontal R&D," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1124-1147, September.
    36. Bucci, Alberto, 2013. "Returns to specialization, competition, population, and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2023-2040.
    37. Jochen Mierau & Stephen Turnovsky, 2014. "Demography, growth, and inequality," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(1), pages 29-68, January.
    38. Alberto Bucci, 2015. "Product Proliferation, Population, and Economic Growth," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(2), pages 170-197.
    39. Holger Strulik, 2005. "The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R&D‐based Models of Economic Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 129-145, February.
    40. Ahsan, Humna & Haque, M. Emranul, 2017. "Threshold effects of human capital: Schooling and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 48-52.
    41. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    42. Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
    43. Charles I. Jones & Paul M. Romer, 2010. "The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 224-245, January.
    44. Prettner, Klaus, 2014. "The non-monotonous impact of population growth on economic prosperity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 93-95.
    45. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May.
    46. Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew K. (ed.), 2010. "The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226386850, August.
    47. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ali Saleh Alarussi & Eng Zhi Yen, 2023. "The Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growthin Asian Countries," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 33-53.
    2. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2019. "Can we have growth when population is stagnant? Testing linear growth rate formulas and their cross-unit cointegration of non-scale endogenous growth models," MERIT Working Papers 2019-021, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    3. Chao Zhang & Lixin Tian & Guochang Fang, 2024. "Analysis of sustainable transformation development patterns and heterogeneity of Chinese cities based on spatial general equilibrium model," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(10), pages 25689-25715, October.
    4. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2020. "Can we have growth when population is stagnant? Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(13), pages 1502-1516, March.
    5. Adewumi Ayodeji. & Alli Kudirat. & Akintajuwa Olufunsho Ademola., 2023. "Human Capital Cost and Shareholders’ Equity of Listed Oil and Gas Companies in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(6), pages 914-925, June.
    6. Umar Tijjani Babuga & Niaz Ahmad Mohd Naseem, 2022. "Oil Price Change and Economic Growth: Evidence from Net Sub-Saharan Africa Oil Exporting Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 369-378, March.
    7. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    8. Kasuga, Hidefumi & Morita, Yuichi, 2022. "The health gap and its effect on economic outcomes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Gang, Cuiui & Li, Juanwei & Hu, Haiqing & Wei, Wei, 2023. "Dynamic co-movement between economic growth and language: A new perspective of technological progress," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 705-721.
    10. Luca Spinesi, 2022. "The Environmental Tax: Effects on Inequality and Growth," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(3), pages 529-572, July.
    11. Zhao Li & Yujing Chu, 2023. "Is Hierarchical Education Investment Synergistic? Evidence from China’s Investment in General and Advanced Education," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 1522-1537, June.
    12. Yuriy Leonidovich Zhukovskiy & Daria Evgenievna Batueva & Alexandra Dmitrievna Buldysko & Bernard Gil & Valeriia Vladimirovna Starshaia, 2021. "Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-28, August.
    13. Muhammad Azhar Bhatti & Muhammad Yousuf Khan Marri & Ali Azam, 2021. "Impact of Tourism Growth and FDI on Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(3), pages 343-353, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alberto Bucci & Klaus Prettner, 2020. "Endogenous education and the reversal in the relationship between fertility and economic growth," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 1025-1068, July.
    2. Boikos, Spyridon & Bucci, Alberto & Stengos, Thanasis, 2022. "Leisure and innovation in horizontal R&D-based growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Bucci Alberto & Raurich Xavier, 2017. "Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 182-211, May.
    4. Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "The implications of automation for economic growth and the labor share of income," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 04/2016, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    5. Bucci, Alberto, 2013. "Returns to specialization, competition, population, and growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2023-2040.
    6. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    7. Bucci, Alberto & Carbonari, Lorenzo & Trovato, Giovanni, 2021. "Variety, Competition, And Population In Economic Growth: Theory And Empirics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1303-1330, July.
    8. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    9. Prettner, Klaus & Werner, Katharina, 2016. "Why it pays off to pay us well: The impact of basic research on economic growth and welfare," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 1075-1090.
    10. Baldanzi, Annarita & Bucci, Alberto & Prettner, Klaus, 2021. "Children’S Health, Human Capital Accumulation, And R&D-Based Economic Growth," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 651-668, April.
    11. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    12. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2023. "The scientific revolution and its implications for long-run economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    13. Amavilah, Voxi Heinrich, 2014. "Knowledge = Technology + Human Capital and the Lucas and Romer Production Functions," MPRA Paper 58847, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2016. "Human-Capital Spillover, Population, and Economic Growth," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    15. Werner, Katharina & Prettner, Klaus, 2014. "Human capital, basic research, and applied research: three dimensions of human knowledge and their differential growth effects," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100448, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Gancia, Gino & Zilibotti, Fabrizio, 2005. "Horizontal Innovation in the Theory of Growth and Development," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 111-170, Elsevier.
    17. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2007:i:8:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ulaşan, Bülent, 2012. "Cross-country growth empirics and model uncertainty: An overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 6, pages 1-69.
    19. Holger Strulik & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "The past and future of knowledge-based growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 411-437, December.
    20. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Declining fertility and economic well-being: Do education and health ride to the rescue?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 70-79.
    21. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2019. "Can we have growth when population is stagnant? Testing linear growth rate formulas and their cross-unit cointegration of non-scale endogenous growth models," MERIT Working Papers 2019-021, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Human Capital Investment; Economic Growth; Population Growth; Dilution Effects; Research & Development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:kitwps:113. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwkitde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.