[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwasw/412.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Explaining the increased German credit spread: The role of supply factors

Author

Listed:
  • Brown, Alessio J. G.
  • Žarnić, Žiga
Abstract
Since 1999 an increase in magnitude and volatility of the credit spread is observable in the German bond market. This paper analyses the credit spread of German industrial bonds focussing on the one hand on the recent period of high volatility of the credit spread and on the other hand on possible influences of structural demand and supply effects. Our empirical estimation is conducted using an Error Correction Model (ECM) for a dataset of monthly time series from 1970 to 2003. We provide evidence on a significant impact of supply effects on the credit spread. Our in-sample forecasts trace the volatility of the credit spread surprisingly well.

Suggested Citation

  • Brown, Alessio J. G. & Žarnić, Žiga, 2003. "Explaining the increased German credit spread: The role of supply factors," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 412, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwasw:412
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/3225/1/387152466.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean Helwege & Christopher M. Turner, 1999. "The Slope of the Credit Yield Curve for Speculative‐Grade Issuers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1869-1884, October.
    2. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    3. Lawrence Fisher, 1959. "Determinants of Risk Premiums on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 217-217.
    4. Klaus Düllmann & Marliese Uhrig‐Homburg & Marc Windfuhr, 2000. "Risk structure of interest rates: an empirical analysis for Deutschemark‐denominated bonds," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 6(3), pages 367-388, September.
    5. Delianedis, Gordon & Geske, Robert, 2001. "The Components of Corporate Credit Spreads: Default, Recovery, Tax, Jumps, Liquidity, and Market Factors," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt32x284q3, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    6. Duffee, Gregory R, 1999. "Estimating the Price of Default Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 197-226.
    7. Alfonso Dufour & Robert F. Engle, 2000. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2467-2498, December.
    8. Jaffee, Dwight M., 1975. "Cyclical variations in the risk structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 309-325, July.
    9. Javier Santillán & Marc Bayle & Christian Thygesen, 2000. "The impact of the euro on money and bond markets," Occasional Paper Series 1, European Central Bank.
    10. Edwin J. Elton, 1999. "Presidential Address: Expected Return, Realized Return, and Asset Pricing Tests," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1199-1220, August.
    11. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51.
    12. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Silvers, J B, 1973. "An Alternative to the Yield Spread as a Measure of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 933-955, September.
    14. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "The Corporate Spread Curve and Industrial Production in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2002/008, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. "An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
    16. Santillán, Javier & Bayle, Marc & Thygesen, Christian, 2000. "The impact of the euro on money and bond markets," Occasional Paper Series 1, European Central Bank.
    17. Sarig, Oded & Warga, Arthur, 1989. "Bond Price Data and Bond Market Liquidity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 367-378, September.
    18. Babbel, David F. & Merrill, Craig B. & Meyer, Mark F. & de Villiers, Meiring, 2004. "The Effect of Transaction Size on Off-the-Run Treasury Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 595-611, September.
    19. Patrick Houweling & Albert Mentink & Ton Vorst, 2003. "How to measure Corporate Bond Liquidity?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-030/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Zhiwei Zhang, 2002. "Corporate Bond Spreads and the Business Cycle," Staff Working Papers 02-15, Bank of Canada.
    21. Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, June.
    22. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March.
    23. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    24. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    25. Jan Ericsson & Olivier Renault, 2006. "Liquidity and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2219-2250, October.
    26. John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2003. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2321-2350, December.
    27. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    28. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    29. Yoshihito Saito & Yoko Takeda, 2000. "Predicting the US Real GDP Growth Using Yield Spreads of Corporate Bonds," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series International Department,, Bank of Japan.
    30. Mr. Iryna V. Ivaschenko & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2001. "Corporate Bond Risk and Real Activity: An Empirical Analysis of Yield Spreads and Their Systematic Components," IMF Working Papers 2001/158, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Cook, Timothy Q & Hendershott, Patric H, 1978. "The Impact of Taxes, Risk and Relative Security Supplies on Interest Rate Differentials," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1186, September.
    32. Kwark, Noh-Sun, 2002. "Default risks, interest rate spreads, and business cycles: Explaining the interest rate spread as a leading indicator," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 271-302, February.
    33. Boardman, Calvin M. & McEnally, Richard W., 1981. "Factors Affecting Seasoned Corporate Bond Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 207-226, June.
    34. Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 15(3), pages 132-150, Autumn.
    35. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1533-1562 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Ramon E. Johnson, 1967. "Term Structures Of Corporate Bond Yields As A Function Of Risk Of Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 22(2), pages 313-345, May.
    37. John V. Duca, 1999. "What credit market indicators tell us," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 2-13.
    38. Lee, C Jevons, 1981. "The Pricing of Corporate Debt: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1187-1189, December.
    39. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    40. Crabbe, Leland E & Turner, Christopher M, 1995. "Does the Liquidity of a Debt Issue Increase with Its Size? Evidence from the Corporate Bond and Medium-Term Note Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1719-1734, December.
    41. Alexander, Gordon J. & Edwards, Amy K. & Ferri, Michael G., 2000. "The determinants of trading volume of high-yield corporate bonds," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 177-204, May.
    42. Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Special Repo Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 493-526, June.
    43. Warga, Arthur, 1992. "Bond Returns, Liquidity, and Missing Data," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 605-617, December.
    44. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    45. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:2225-2241 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Pitts, C G C & Selby, M J P, 1983. "The Pricing of Corporate Debt: A Further Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1311-1313, September.
    47. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1991. "Liquidity, Maturity, and the Yields on U.S. Treasury Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1411-1425, September.
    48. Friedman, Benjamin M & Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1992. "Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 472-492, June.
    49. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:5:p:1351-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    50. Fons, Jerome S, 1987. "The Default Premium and Corporate Bond Experience," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 81-97, March.
    51. Rodriguez, Ricardo J., 1988. "Default Risk, Yield Spreads, and Time to Maturity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 111-117, March.
    52. Pierre Collin-Dufresn & Robert S. Goldstein & J. Spencer Martin, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
    53. Andrew F. Brimmer, 1960. "Credit Conditions And Price Determination In The Corporate Bond Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 15(3), pages 353-370, September.
    54. Mr. Garry J. Schinasi & T. Todd Smith & Mr. Charles Frederick Kramer, 2001. "Financial Implications of the Shrinking Supply of U.S. Treasury Securities," IMF Working Papers 2001/061, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chebbi TAREK, 2008. "Rating And Other Factors Explaining The Corporate Credit Spread: Empirical Evidence From Tunisian Bond Market," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(4(6)_Wint).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    2. Wahyudi, Imam & Robbi, Abdu, 2009. "Exploring Determinant Factors of Bond Trading with Inventory Management Theory (Case Study of Indonesian Capital Market, January – March 2009)," MPRA Paper 59883, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Jul 2010.
    3. Chebbi TAREK, 2008. "Rating And Other Factors Explaining The Corporate Credit Spread: Empirical Evidence From Tunisian Bond Market," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(4(6)_Wint).
    4. Maciej Firla-Cuchra, 2005. "Explaining Launch Spreads on Structured Bonds," Economics Series Working Papers 230, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. van Landschoot, A., 2003. "The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds," Other publications TiSEM f5164bb2-6597-48c4-8b44-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Ericsson, Jan & Reneby, Joel, 2003. "Valuing Corporate Liabilities," SIFR Research Report Series 15, Institute for Financial Research.
    7. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. van Landschoot, A., 2003. "The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds," Discussion Paper 2003-046, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Song Han & Hao Zhou, 2016. "Effects of Liquidity on the Non-Default Component of Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from Intraday Transactions Data," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-49, September.
    10. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Staff Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
    11. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    12. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    13. Landschoot, Astrid Van, 2008. "Determinants of yield spread dynamics: Euro versus US dollar corporate bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 2597-2605, December.
    14. Houweling, Patrick & Mentink, Albert & Vorst, Ton, 2005. "Comparing possible proxies of corporate bond liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1331-1358, June.
    15. Manzoni, Katiuscia, 2002. "Modeling credit spreads: An application to the sterling Eurobond market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 183-218.
    16. Helwege, Jean & Huang, Jing-Zhi & Wang, Yuan, 2014. "Liquidity effects in corporate bond spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 105-116.
    17. Ramaprasad Bhar & Nedim Handzic, 2011. "A Multifactor Model of Credit Spreads," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 18(1), pages 105-127, March.
    18. R. Jankowitsch & H. Mosenbacher & S. Pichler, 2006. "Measuring the liquidity impact on EMU government bond prices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 153-169.
    19. Kucuk, Ugur N., 2010. "Non-default Component of Sovereign Emerging Market Yield Spreads and its Determinants: Evidence from Credit Default Swap Market," MPRA Paper 27428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Edward J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 1999. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-082, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    21. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwasw:412. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.