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Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic Profits

Author

Abstract
I develop a model of dynamic firm entry, oligopolistic competition and returns to scale in order to decompose TFP fluctuations into technical change, economic profit and markup fluctuations. I show that economic profits cause short-run upward bias in measured TFP, but this subsides to upward bias from endogenous markups as firm entry adjusts. I analyze dynamics analytically through a nonparametric DGE model that allows for a perfect competition equilibrium such that there are no biases in measured TFP. Given market power, simulations show that measured TFP is 40% higher than technology in the short-run, due solely to profits, and 20% higher in the long-run due solely to markups. During transition both effects contribute upward bias: initially the profit effect dominates, but by 5 quarters the two effects contribute equally, and by 10 quarters only the markup effect persists. The speed of firm adjustment ('business dynamism') will determine these timings and therefore the importance of each bias.

Suggested Citation

  • Anthony Savagar, 2018. "Measured Productivity with Endogenous Markups and Economic Profits," Studies in Economics 1812, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1812
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    Cited by:

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    4. Federico Etro, 2018. "Macroeconomics with Endogenous Markups and Optimal Taxation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(2), pages 378-406, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endogenous Markups; Dynamic Firm Entry; Endogenous Productivity; Endogenous Entry Costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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