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Cascading Trade Protection: Evidence from the US

Author

Listed:
  • Aksel Erbahar

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands)

  • Yuan Zi

    (The Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva, Switzerland)

Abstract
In a world with increasingly integrated global supply chains, trade policy targeting upstream products has unintended consequences on their downstream industries. In this paper, we examine whether protection granted to intermediate manufacturers leads to petition for protection by their downstream users. We first provide a simple model based on the quantitative framework of Ossa (2014) which identifies the key factors and their interactions that cause cascading protection to motivate our empirical analysis. Then, we test our model by identifying the input-output relationships among the time-varying temporary trade barriers of the US using its detailed input-output tables. As predicted by the theory, we find that measures on imported inputs increase the likelihood of their downstream users' subsequent trade remedy petition over the 1988-2013 period. Moreover, our simulation exercise shows that cascading protection can cause additional welfare losses, and hence we propose that trade policy investigations should take vertical linkages into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Aksel Erbahar & Yuan Zi, 2016. "Cascading Trade Protection: Evidence from the US," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-079/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 10 Oct 2016.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20160079
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Metiu, Norbert, 2021. "Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Policy and the China Syndrome," Working Papers ECARES 2020-15, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Sébastien Jean & Kevin Lefebvre, 2024. "Beyond Target: Indirect Impacts of Antidumping," CESifo Working Paper Series 11212, CESifo.
    5. Bown, Chad P., 2021. "The US–China trade war and Phase One agreement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 805-843.
    6. Bosker, Maarten & Westbrock, Bastian, 2024. "The network origins of the gains from trade," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    7. Bown, Chad P. & Erbahar, Aksel & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2021. "Global value chains and the removal of trade protection," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Antrà s, Pol & Chor, Davin, 2021. "Global Value Chains," CEPR Discussion Papers 15908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Maxwell T. Andersen & Robert M. Feinberg, 2018. "Fishing Downstream Revisited: A Multi-country Analysis of Antidumping Patterns," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 1-9, June.
    10. Chad P. Bown, 2018. "Trade Policy Toward Supply Chains After the Great Recession," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(3), pages 602-616, September.
    11. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2017:i:181 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chad Brown & Paola Conconi & Aksel Erbahar & Lorenzo Trimarchi, 2020. "Trade Protection Along Supply Chains," Working Papers ECARES 2020-52, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. Neha Bhardwaj Upadhayay, 2020. "Uncovering the proliferation of contingent protection through channels of retaliation, gender and development assistance," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph20-02 edited by Julie Lochard & Catherine Bros.
    14. Pol Antràs & Teresa C. Fort & Agustín Gutiérrez & Felix Tintelnot, 2022. "Trade Policy and Global Sourcing: An Efficiency Rationale for Tariff Escalation," NBER Working Papers 30225, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Huang, Jianbai & Ding, Qian & Wang, Ying & Hong, Huojun & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "The evolution and influencing factors of international tungsten competition from the industrial chain perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trade policy; protectionism; global value chains; anti-dumping;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F68 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Policy

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