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Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Relationship: The Experience of ASEAN Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Khim-sen Liew

    (Universiti Putra Malaysia)

  • Kian-Ping Lim

    (Universiti Malaysia Sabah)

  • Huzaimi Hussain

    (Universiti Teknologi MARA Samarahan Campus)

Abstract
This study addresses the question of whether exchange rate changes have any significant and direct impact on trade balance. By examining the trade balances between ASEAN-5 countries and Japan for the sample period from 1986 to 1999, this study found that the role of exchange rate changes in initiating changes in the trade balances has been exaggerated. As such, an alternative explanation to the observed behaviour of ASEAN-5 trade balances in the selected sample period has been postulated. In particular, we propose that trade balance is affected by real money, rather than nominal exchange rate. A mathematical framework that provides theoretical background to our proposition is presented. Our empirical data analysis suggests that the real money effect proposition could consistently explain the observed trade balances in Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines during the period of study, with respect to Japan. Thus, in order to cope with trade deficits, the governments of these ASEAN countries might resort to policy measures focusing on the variable of real money.

Suggested Citation

  • Khim-sen Liew & Kian-Ping Lim & Huzaimi Hussain, 2003. "Exchange Rate and Trade Balance Relationship: The Experience of ASEAN Countries," International Trade 0307003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0307003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Waseem Ahmad Parray & Javed Ahmad Bhat & Effat Yasmin & Sajad Ahmad Bhat, 2023. "Exchange Rate Changes and the J-curve Effect: Asymmetric Evidence from a Panel of Five Emerging Market Economies," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 58(4), pages 524-543, November.
    2. Sara Rafiq & Liu Hai Yun & Gulzar Ali, 2016. "Forecasting the Trend Analysis of Trade Balance of Pakistan: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(7), pages 188-214, July.
    3. Suwanhirunkul, Suwijak & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Exchange rate and trade balance linkage: sectoral evidence from Thailand based on nonlinear ARDL," MPRA Paper 87541, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Adznan, Syaima & Masih, Mansur, 2018. "Exchange rate and trade balance linkage: evidence from Malaysia based on ARDL and NARDL," MPRA Paper 91509, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Waliullah & Mehmood Khan Kakar & Rehmatullah Kakar & Wakeel Khan, 2010. "The Determinants of Pakistan’s Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration Approach," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, Jan-Jun.
    6. Shah, Anwar & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq, 2014. "Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Pakistan: An ARDL Co-integration Approach," MPRA Paper 57674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lwazi Senzo Ntshangase & Thando Ngozo, 2024. "Quantifying Fiscal Multipliers in South Africa: A Structural Var Approach," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 16(2), pages 45-55.
    8. Hicham Sadok, 2018. "The Effect of Exchange Rates on Trade Balance: An Empirical Study of Morocco," GATR Journals jber151, Global Academy of Training and Research (GATR) Enterprise.
    9. Alhaji Jibrilla Aliyu & Shehu Mohammed Tijjani & Caroline Elliott, 2015. "Asymmetric cointegration between exchange rate and trade balance in Nigeria," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1045213-104, December.
    10. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "Determinants of Malaysian Trade Balance: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach - A Commentary," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 125-133.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Trade balance; Real money; Purchasing power parity; ASEAN-5 Economies.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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