[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/8741.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does Automation in Rich Countries Hurt Developing Ones? : Evidence from the U.S. and Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Artuc,Erhan
  • Christiaensen,Luc
  • Winkler,Hernan Jorge
Abstract
Following a couple of decades of offshoring, the fear today is of reshoring. Using administrative data on Mexican exports by municipality, sector and destination from 2004 to 2014, this paper investigates how local labor markets in Mexico that are more exposed to automation in the U.S. through trade fared in exports and employment outcomes. The results show that an increase of one robot per thousand workers in the U.S. -- about twice the increase observed between 2004-2014 -- lowers growth in exports per worker from Mexico to the U.S. by 6.7 percent. Higher exposure to U.S. automation did not affect wage employment, nor manufacturing wage employment overall. Yet, the latter is the result of two counteracting forces. Exposure to U.S. automation reduced manufacturing wage employment in areas where occupations were initially more susceptible to being automated; but exposure increased manufacturing wage employment in other areas. Finally, the analysis also finds negative impacts of exposure to local automation on local labor market outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Artuc,Erhan & Christiaensen,Luc & Winkler,Hernan Jorge, 2019. "Does Automation in Rich Countries Hurt Developing Ones? : Evidence from the U.S. and Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8741, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8741
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/221101550152344701/pdf/Does-Automation-in-Rich-Countries-Hurt-Developing-Ones-Evidence-from-the-U-S-and-Mexico.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francesco Chiacchio & Georgios Petropoulos & David Pichler, 2018. "The impact of industrial robots on EU employment and wages- A local labour market approach," Working Papers 25186, Bruegel.
    2. Dachs, Bernhard & Zanker, Christoph, 2015. "Backshoring of Production Activities in European Manufacturing," MPRA Paper 63868, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dachs, Bernhard & Kinkel, Steffen & Jäger, Angela, 2019. "Bringing it all back home? Backshoring of manufacturing activities and the adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1-1.
    4. Julio A. Berdegué & Tatiana Hiller & Juan Mauricio Ramírez & Santiago Satizábal & Isidro Soloaga & Juan Soto & Miguel Uribe & Olga Vargas, 2019. "Delineating functional territories from outer space," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 28(1), pages 1-24, December.
    5. Avraham Ebenstein & Ann Harrison & Margaret McMillan & Shannon Phillips, 2022. "Estimating The Impact Of Trade And Offshoring On American Workers Using The Current Population Surveys," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Globalization, Firms, and Workers, chapter 12, pages 275-289, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. David Hummels & Rasmus J?rgensen & Jakob Munch & Chong Xiang, 2014. "The Wage Effects of Offshoring: Evidence from Danish Matched Worker-Firm Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1597-1629, June.
    7. Teresa C. Fort, 2017. "Technology and Production Fragmentation: Domestic versus Foreign Sourcing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 650-687.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    9. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    10. Laura Abramovsky & Rachel Griffith, 2006. "Outsourcing and Offshoring of Business Services: How Important is ICT?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 594-601, 04-05.
    11. Shushanik Hakobyan & John McLaren, 2016. "Looking for Local Labor Market Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 728-741, October.
    12. Matthew C Mahutga & Michaela Curran & Anthony Roberts, 2018. "Job Tasks and the Comparative Structure of Income and Employment: Routine Task Intensity and Offshorability for the LIS," LIS Working papers 740, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    13. Koen De Backer & Carlo Menon & Isabelle Desnoyers-James & Laurent Moussiegt, 2016. "Reshoring: Myth or Reality?," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers 27, OECD Publishing.
    14. Guillermo E. Perry & William F. Maloney & Omar S. Arias & Pablo Fajnzylber & Andrew D. Mason & Jaime Saavedra-Chanduvi, 2007. "Informality : Exit and Exclusion," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6730.
    15. Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & Südekum, Jens & Wößner, Nicole, 2017. "German robots - the impact of industrial robots on workers," IAB-Discussion Paper 201730, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    16. Enamorado, Ted & López-Calva, Luis F. & Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos & Winkler, Hernán, 2016. "Income inequality and violent crime: Evidence from Mexico's drug war," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 128-143.
    17. Artuc, Erhan & Bastos, Paulo & Rijkers, Bob, 2023. "Robots, tasks, and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    18. Faber, Marius, 2018. "Robots and reshoring: Evidence from Mexican local labor markets," Working papers 2018/27, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    19. Südekum, Jens & Dauth, Wolfgang & Findeisen, Sebastian & Woessner, Nicole, 2017. "German Robots – The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers," CEPR Discussion Papers 12306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series dp-297, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    21. Koen De Backer & Timothy DeStefano & Carlo Menon & Jung Ran Suh, 2018. "Industrial robotics and the global organisation of production," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2018/03, OECD Publishing.
    22. Ann P. Bartel & Saul Lach & Nachum Sicherman, 2014. "Technological Change and the Make-or-Buy Decision," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 165-192.
    23. Robert C. Allen, 2017. "Lessons from history for the future of work," Nature, Nature, vol. 550(7676), pages 321-324, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alejandro Micco, 2019. "Automation, Labor Markets, and Trade," Working Papers wp486, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    2. Carbonero, Francesco. & Ernst, Ekkehard & Weber, Enzo., 2018. "Robots worldwide the impact of automation on employment and trade," ILO Working Papers 995008793402676, International Labour Organization.
    3. Cilekoglu, Akin A. & Moreno, Rosina & Ramos, Raul, 2024. "The impact of robot adoption on global sourcing," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    4. Baert, Stijn, 2021. "The iceberg decomposition: A parsimonious way to map the health of labour markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 350-365.
    5. Calì, Massimiliano & Presidente, Giorgio, 2021. "Robots For Economic Development," GLO Discussion Paper Series 942, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Stemmler, Henry, 2023. "Automated Deindustrialization: How Global Robotization Affects Emerging Economies—Evidence from Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    7. Artuc, Erhan & Bastos, Paulo & Rijkers, Bob, 2023. "Robots, tasks, and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Sang Hyun Park & Amelia U. Santos-Paulino & Claudia Trentini, . "Fourth Industrial Revolution and FDI from SMEs: The Case of the Republic of Korea," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    9. Alejandro Micco, 2019. "The Impact of Automation in Developed Countries," Working Papers wp480, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    10. Azmeh, Shamel & Nguyen, Huong & Kuhn, Marlene, 2022. "Automation and industrialisation through global value chains: North Africa in the German automotive wiring harness industry," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 125-138.
    11. Jurkat, Anne & Klump, Rainer & Schneider, Florian, 2023. "Robots and Wages: A Meta-Analysis," EconStor Preprints 274156, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Katherine Stapleton & Michael Webb, 2020. "Automation, trade and multinational activity: Micro evidence from Spain," CSAE Working Paper Series 2020-16, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    13. Guido Matias Cortes & Diego M. Morris, 2019. "Are Routine Jobs Moving South? Evidence from Changes in the Occupational Structure of Employment in the U.S. and Mexico," Working Paper series 19-15, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    14. Cali,Massimiliano & Presidente,Giorgio, 2021. "Automation and Manufacturing Performance in a Developing Country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9653, The World Bank.
    15. Antonio Martins-Neto & Nanditha Mathew & Pierre Mohnen & Tania Treibich, 2024. "Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 259-288.
    16. Hidalgo, Camila & Micco, Alejandro, 2024. "Computerization, offshoring and trade: The effect on developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    17. Faber, Marius, 2020. "Robots and reshoring: Evidence from Mexican labor markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    18. Luis Gerardo Hernández García, 2022. "Transport equipment network analysis: the value-added contribution," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
    19. Lukas Schlogl, 2020. "Leapfrogging into the unknown: The future of structural change in the developing world," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-25, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carbonero, Francesco. & Ernst, Ekkehard & Weber, Enzo., 2018. "Robots worldwide the impact of automation on employment and trade," ILO Working Papers 995008793402676, International Labour Organization.
    2. Cilekoglu, Akin A. & Moreno, Rosina & Ramos, Raul, 2024. "The impact of robot adoption on global sourcing," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(3).
    3. Antón, José-Ignacio & Fernández-Macías, Enrique & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 2020. "Does Robotization Affect Job Quality? Evidence from European Regional Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 13975, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Lütkenhorst, Wilfried, 2018. "Creating wealth without labour? Emerging contours of a new techno-economic landscape," IDOS Discussion Papers 11/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    5. Cali,Massimiliano & Presidente,Giorgio, 2021. "Automation and Manufacturing Performance in a Developing Country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9653, The World Bank.
    6. Gregory, Terry & Salomons, Anna & Zierahn, Ulrich, 2016. "Racing With or Against the Machine? Evidence from Europe," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145843, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Silvio Traverso, 2021. "Globalization, robotization, and electoral outcomes: Evidence from spatial regressions for Italy," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 86-111, January.
    8. Klump, Rainer & Jurkat, Anne & Schneider, Florian, 2021. "Tracking the rise of robots: A survey of the IFR database and its applications," MPRA Paper 107909, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Teresa C. Fort & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 47-72, Spring.
    10. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," GLO Discussion Paper Series 802, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Julia Bock-Schappelwein & Michael Böheim & Elisabeth Christen & Stefan Ederer & Matthias Firgo & Klaus Friesenbichler & Werner Hölzl & Mathias Kirchner & Angela Köppl & Agnes Kügler & Christine Mayrhu, 2018. "Politischer Handlungsspielraum zur optimalen Nutzung der Vorteile der Digitalisierung für Wirtschaftswachstum, Beschäftigung und Wohlstand," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61256, March.
    12. Keller, Wolfgang & Utar, Hale, 2023. "International trade and job polarization: Evidence at the worker level," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    13. Cristiano CODAGNONE & Giovanni LIVA & Egidijus BARCEVICIUS & Gianluca MISURACA & Luka KLIMAVICIUTE & Michele BENEDETTI & Irene VANINI & Giancarlo VECCHI & Emily RYEN GLOINSON & Katherine STEWART & Sti, 2020. "Assessing the impacts of digital government transformation in the EU: Conceptual framework and empirical case studies," JRC Research Reports JRC120865, Joint Research Centre.
    14. Andrea Salvatori & Seetha Menon & Wouter Zwysen, 2018. "The effect of computer use on job quality: Evidence from Europe," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 200, OECD Publishing.
    15. Aina Gallego & Thomas Kurer & Nikolas Schöll, 2018. "Not so disruptive after all: How workplace digitalization affects political preferences," Economics Working Papers 1623, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    16. Muendler, Marc-Andreas, 2017. "Trade, technology, and prosperity: An account of evidence from a labor-market perspective," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2017-15, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    17. Naude, Wim, 2019. "The race against the robots and the fallacy of the giant cheesecake: Immediate and imagined impacts of artificial intelligence," MERIT Working Papers 2019-005, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    18. Fackler, Daniel & Müller, Steffen & Stegmaier, Jens, 2017. "Explaining wage losses after job displacement: Employer size and lost firm rents," IWH Discussion Papers 32/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Martin Labaj & Materj Vitalos, 2019. "Automation and labor demand in European countries: A task-based approach to wage bill decomposition," Department of Economic Policy Working Paper Series 021, Department of Economic Policy, Faculty of National Economy, University of Economics in Bratislava.
    20. Mutascu, Mihai, 2021. "Artificial intelligence and unemployment: New insights," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 653-667.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8741. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.