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A Real Options Model for the Disinvestment in Conventional Power Plants

Author

Listed:
  • Glensk, Barbara

    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

  • Madlener, Reinhard

    (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))

Abstract
The liberalization of the energy markets and the merit order effect lead to difficulties in the operation even of modern, highly energy-effcient conventional power plants ('missing money problem'). Their operation often becomes unprofitable, so that sometimes the only remaining option is to liquidate the plant altogether. Decisions about further operation or shut-down can be supported by applying real options analysis. This approach has been used successfully for assessing investment projects in different sectors of the economy including the energy supply industry. In this paper, we develop a real options model for the disinvestment in conventional, fossil-fuelled power plants. Applying the proposed real options approach, we aim to determine the optimal timing for the shut-down of unprofitable gas-fired power plants as well as the probability level for all possible decisions. The results show that the decision and its probability value regarding continued operation, or the optimal timing for shutdown of the power plant, depend strongly on the volatility level of the capacity factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "A Real Options Model for the Disinvestment in Conventional Power Plants," FCN Working Papers 9/2015, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2015_009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "Real Options Analysis of the Flexible Operation of an Enhanced Gas-Fired Power Plant," FCN Working Papers 11/2015, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    2. Ihli, Hanna Julia & Maart, Syster Christin & Musshoff, Oliver, 2012. "Investment and Disinvestment in Irrigation Technology – An Experimental Analysis of Farmers’ Decision Behavior –," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124532, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Fernandes, Bartolomeu & Cunha, Jorge & Ferreira, Paula, 2011. "The use of real options approach in energy sector investments," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(9), pages 4491-4497.
    5. Feil, Jan-Henning & Musshoff, Oliver, 2013. "Investment, disinvestment and policy impact analysis in the dairy sector: a real options approach," Structural Change in Agriculture/Strukturwandel im Agrarsektor (SiAg) Working Papers 159229, Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    6. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    8. Barbara Glensk & Christiane Rosen & Reinhard Madlener, 2016. "A Real Options Model for the Disinvestment in Conventional Power Plants," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Marco Lübbecke & Arie Koster & Peter Letmathe & Reinhard Madlener & Britta Peis & Grit Walther (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2014, edition 1, pages 173-179, Springer.
    9. Fontes, Dalila B.M.M., 2008. "Fixed versus flexible production systems: A real options analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 169-184, July.
    10. Barbara Glensk & Reinhard Madlener, 2018. "Flexibility Options for Lignite-Fired Power Plants: A Real Options Approach," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Andreas Fink & Armin Fügenschuh & Martin Josef Geiger (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2016, pages 157-163, Springer.
    11. Guthrie, Graeme, 2009. "Real Options in Theory and Practice," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195380637.
    12. Oliver Musshoff & Martin Odening & Christian Schade & Syster Christin Maart-Noelck & Serena Sandri, 2013. "Inertia in disinvestment decisions: experimental evidence," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(3), pages 463-485, July.
    13. Peter Zweifel & Aaron Praktiknjo & Georg Erdmann, 2017. "Energy Economics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-662-53022-1, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2015. "Real Options Analysis of the Flexible Operation of an Enhanced Gas-Fired Power Plant," FCN Working Papers 11/2015, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    2. Glensk, Barbara & Madlener, Reinhard, 2019. "The value of enhanced flexibility of gas-fired power plants: A real options analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Barbara Glensk & Christiane Rosen & Reinhard Madlener, 2016. "A Real Options Model for the Disinvestment in Conventional Power Plants," Operations Research Proceedings, in: Marco Lübbecke & Arie Koster & Peter Letmathe & Reinhard Madlener & Britta Peis & Grit Walther (ed.), Operations Research Proceedings 2014, edition 1, pages 173-179, Springer.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Options; Renewables; Gas-fired Power Plants; Flexibility; Energy Market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D89 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Other
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General

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