[go: up one dir, main page]
More Web Proxy on the site http://driver.im/
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/crcrmw/2009_002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the determinants of the implied default barrier

Author

Listed:
  • Dionne, Georges

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

  • Laajimi, Sadok

    (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management)

Abstract
Many structural models specify the default barrier, but few have explored its empirical significance and determinants. The effect of liquidity shortage is not well measured, nor is the effect of strategic default well identified. We use the maximum likelihood (ML) approach to estimate the default barrier model and the Merton-KMV model using market values of equities in a sample of 762 public industrial firms. The estimated barrier is below leverage in our sample. The default probability from the two structural models provides similar in-sample fits, but the default barrier framework achieves better out-of-sample forecasts. Our analysis also focuses on the factors that influence the level of the implied default barrier when leverage is endogenous, and shows that endogenous leverage is not the only determinant of the default barrier as predicted by the standard structural credit model. The implied default threshold is positively related to financing costs, and negatively related to liquidity, asset volatility, and firm size. Three strategic default variables (liquidation costs, renegotiation frictions and equity holders’ bargaining power) increase the implied default barrier level. This evidence supports strategic default models.

Suggested Citation

  • Dionne, Georges & Laajimi, Sadok, 2011. "On the determinants of the implied default barrier," Working Papers 09-2, HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2009_002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.risksresearch.com/_files/ugd/a6eed3_25ac34c7efcc4c2b9322658e2ccba164.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franck Moraux, 2002. "Valuing corporate liabilities when the default threshold is not an absorbing barrier," Post-Print halshs-00077168, HAL.
    2. Viral Acharya & Jing-zhi Huang & Marti Subrahmanyam & Rangarajan Sundaram, 2006. "When does Strategic Debt-service Matter?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 29(2), pages 363-378, October.
    3. Denis, David J. & Mihov, Vassil T., 2003. "The choice among bank debt, non-bank private debt, and public debt: evidence from new corporate borrowings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 3-28, October.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:1:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Reisz, Alexander S. & Perlich, Claudia, 2007. "A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-131, July.
    6. Ulrich Hege & Pierre Mella-Barral, 2005. "Repeated Dilution of Diffusely Held Debt," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 737-786, May.
    7. Johnson, Shane A., 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Corporate Debt Ownership Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(1), pages 47-69, March.
    8. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    9. Georges Dionne & Sadok Laajimi & Sofiane Mejri & Madalina Petrescu, 2006. "Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies," Staff Working Papers 06-28, Bank of Canada.
    10. Galai, Dan & Raviv, Alon & Wiener, Zvi, 2007. "Liquidation triggers and the valuation of equity and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3604-3620, December.
    11. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    12. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
    13. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1998. "Default and Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model of Debt," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 1-41.
    14. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    15. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    16. Hoi Ying Wong & Tsz Wang Choi, 2009. "Estimating default barriers from market information," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 187-196.
    17. Bourgeon, Jean-Marc & Dionne, Georges, 2013. "On debt service and renegotiation when debt-holders are more strategic," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 353-372.
    18. Anderson, Ronald & Carverhill, Andrew, 2007. "Liquidity and Capital Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 6044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
    20. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    21. Mella-Barral, Pierre & Perraudin, William, 1997. "Strategic Debt Service," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 531-556, June.
    22. Paul Asquith & Robert Gertner & David Scharfstein, 1994. "Anatomy of Financial Distress: An Examination of Junk-Bond Issuers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 625-658.
    23. Gertner, Robert & Scharfstein, David, 1991. "A Theory of Workouts and the Effects of Reorganization Law," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1189-1222, September.
    24. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Franks, Julian R. & Torous, Walter N., 1994. "A comparison of financial recontracting in distressed exchanges and chapter 11 reorganizations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 349-370, June.
    26. Sergei A. Davydenko & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2007. "Strategic Actions and Credit Spreads: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2633-2671, December.
    27. Philip Gharghori & Howard Chan & Robert Faff, 2006. "Investigating the Performance of Alternative Default-Risk Models: Option-Based Versus Accounting-Based Approaches," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 31(2), pages 207-234, December.
    28. Pascal Francois, 2004. "Capital Structure and Asset Prices: Some Effects of Bankruptcy Procedures," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(2), pages 387-412, April.
    29. Anderson, Ronald W & Sundaresan, Suresh, 1996. "Design and Valuation of Debt Contracts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 37-68.
    30. Yu, Fan, 2005. "Accounting transparency and the term structure of credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 53-84, January.
    31. Erik Berglöf & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 1994. "Short-Term versus Long-Term Interests: Capital Structure with Multiple Investors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(4), pages 1055-1084.
    32. Betker, Brian L, 1995. "Management's Incentives, Equity's Bargaining Power, and Deviations from Absolute Priority in Chapter 11 Bankruptcies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 161-183, April.
    33. In Joon Kim & Krishna Ramaswamy & Suresh Sundaresan, 1993. "Does Default Risk in Coupons Affect the Valuation of Corporate Bonds?: A Contingent Claims Model," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    34. Houston, Joel & James, Christopher, 1996. "Bank Information Monopolies and the Mix of Private and Public Debt Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1863-1889, December.
    35. Mark S. Carey & Michael B. Gordy, 2007. "The bank as grim reaper: debt composition and recoveries on defaulted debt," Proceedings 1056, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    36. Viral V. Acharya & Jennifer N. Carpenter, 2002. "Corporate Bond Valuation and Hedging with Stochastic Interest Rates and Endogenous Bankruptcy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1355-1383.
    37. Mella-Barral, Pierre, 1999. "The Dynamics of Default and Debt Reorganization," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 535-578.
    38. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. "A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    39. Dirk Hackbarth & Christopher A. Hennessy & Hayne E. Leland, 2007. "Can the Trade-off Theory Explain Debt Structure?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1389-1428, 2007 04.
    40. Jan Ericsson & Joel Reneby, 2005. "Estimating Structural Bond Pricing Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 707-735, March.
    41. Ronn, Ehud I & Verma, Avinash K, 1986. "Pricing Risk-Adjusted Deposit Insurance: An Option-Based Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 871-895, September.
    42. Jin‐Chuan Duan, 1994. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Price Data Of The Derivative Contract," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 155-167, April.
    43. Fan, Hua & Sundaresan, Suresh M, 2000. "Debt Valuation, Renegotiation, and Optimal Dividend Policy," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(4), pages 1057-1099.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zvika Afik & Ohad Arad & Koresh Galil, 2012. "Using Merton model: an empirical assessment of alternatives," Working Papers 1202, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    2. Lovreta, Lidija & Silaghi, Florina, 2020. "The surface of implied firm’s asset volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Salwa Kessioui & Michalis Doumpos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2023. "A Bibliometric Overview of the State-of-the-Art in Bankruptcy Prediction Methods and Applications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Emilios Galariotis & Alexandros Garefalakis & Christos Lemonakis & Marios Menexiadis & Constantin Zo (ed.), Governance and Financial Performance Current Trends and Perspectives, chapter 6, pages 123-153, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Perko, Igor, 2017. "Behaviour-based short-term invoice probability of default evaluation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(3), pages 1045-1054.
    5. Bougias, Alexandros & Episcopos, Athanasios & Leledakis, George N., 2022. "The role of asset payouts in the estimation of default barriers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    6. Brian Kantor & Christopher Holdsworth, 2010. "Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis (Or Why Capital Structure Is Too Important to Be Left to Regulation)," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 22(3), pages 112-122, June.
    7. Amaya, Diego & Boudreault, Mathieu & McLeish, Don L., 2019. "Maximum likelihood estimation of first-passage structural credit risk models correcting for the survivorship bias," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 297-313.
    8. Afik, Zvika & Arad, Ohad & Galil, Koresh, 2016. "Using Merton model for default prediction: An empirical assessment of selected alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-67.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abel Elizalde, 2006. "Credit Risk Models II: Structural Models," Working Papers wp2006_0606, CEMFI.
    2. Reisz, Alexander S. & Perlich, Claudia, 2007. "A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-131, July.
    3. Zhang, Andrew Jianzhong, 2012. "Distress risk premia in expected stock and bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 225-238.
    4. Pawlina, Grzegorz, 2010. "Underinvestment, capital structure and strategic debt restructuring," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 679-702, December.
    5. Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2015. "A structural model with Explicit Distress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 112-130.
    6. Hege, U. & Mella-Barral, P., 1999. "Collateral, Renegotiation and the Value of Diffusely Held Debt," Other publications TiSEM d1806bd7-b34c-4249-b6fd-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Viral Acharya & Sergei A. Davydenko & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2012. "Cash Holdings and Credit Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3572-3609.
    8. Han, Bing & Zhou, Yi, 2015. "Understanding the term structure of credit default swap spreads," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 18-35.
    9. Duffie, Darrell, 2005. "Credit risk modeling with affine processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2751-2802, November.
    10. Bougias, Alexandros & Episcopos, Athanasios & Leledakis, George N., 2022. "The role of asset payouts in the estimation of default barriers," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Adriana Breccia & William Perraudin, 2010. "Debt Valuation and Chapter 22," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1015, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
    12. Ulrich Hege & Pierre Mella-Barral, 2005. "Repeated Dilution of Diffusely Held Debt," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 737-786, May.
    13. Jing-Zhi Huang & Zhan Shi & Hao Zhou, 2020. "Specification Analysis of Structural Credit Risk Models [Corporate bond valuation and hedging with stochastic interest rates and endogenous bankruptcy]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 45-98.
    14. Goto, Makoto & Suzuki, Teruyoshi, 2015. "Optimal default and liquidation with tangible assets and debt renegotiation," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 16-27.
    15. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    17. Afik, Zvika & Arad, Ohad & Galil, Koresh, 2016. "Using Merton model for default prediction: An empirical assessment of selected alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-67.
    18. Xu, Ruxing & Li, Shenghong, 2010. "Belief updating, debt pricing and financial decisions under asymmetric information," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 123-137, June.
    19. Ulrich Hege & Pierre Mella-Barral, 2019. "Bond Exchange Offers or Collective Action Clauses?," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 40(3), pages 77-119.
    20. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Carey, Mark & Gordy, Michael B., 2021. "The bank as Grim Reaper: Debt composition and bankruptcy thresholds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1092-1108.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Barrier option; default barrier; bankruptcy prediction; maximum likelihood estimation; strategic default; liquidity shortage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2009_002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Claire Boisvert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/hecmtca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.