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Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Beirne, John Beirne

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Renzhi, Nuobu

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Sugandi, Eric Alexander

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Volz, Ulrich

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract
We examine empirically the reaction of global financial markets across 38 economies to the COVID-19 outbreak, with a special focus on the dynamics of capital flow across 14 emerging market economies. Using daily data over the period 4 January 2010 to 30 April 2020 and controlling for a host of domestic and global macroeconomic and financial factors, we use a fixed effects panel approach and a structural VAR framework to show that emerging markets have been more heavily affected than advanced economies. In particular, emerging economies in Asia and Europe have experienced the sharpest impact on stocks, bonds, and exchange rates due to COVID-19, as well as abrupt and substantial capital outflows. Our results indicate that fiscal stimulus packages introduced in response to COVID-19, as well as quantitative easing by central banks, have helped to restore overall investor confidence through reducing bond yields and boosting stock prices. Our findings also highlight the role that global factors and developments in the world’s leading financial centers have on financial conditions in EMEs. Importantly, the impact of COVID-19 related quantitative easing measures by central banks in advanced countries, which helped to lower sovereign bond yields and prop up stock markets at home, extended to EMEs, notably in relation to stabilizing capital flow dynamics. While the ultimate resolution of COVID-19 may be expected to lead to a market correction as uncertainty declines, our impulse response analysis suggests that there may be some permanent effects on financial markets and capital flows as a result of COVID-19, particularly in EMEs.

Suggested Citation

  • Beirne, John Beirne & Renzhi, Nuobu & Sugandi, Eric Alexander & Volz, Ulrich, 2020. "Financial Market and Capital Flow Dynamics During the COVID-19 Pandemic," ADBI Working Papers 1158, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1158
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Eric Alexander Sugandi, 2022. "Indonesia’s Financial Markets and Monetary Policy Dynamics Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(3), pages 411-447, September.
    2. Munawar Sayyad & Pat Obi & Kaushik Bhattacharjee, 2022. "International equity and bond market dynamics an asymmetric error correction study of united states, india and brazil," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(1), pages 69-82.
    3. Famiglietti, Matthew & Leibovici, Fernando, 2022. "The impact of health and economic policies on the spread of COVID-19 and economic activity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Hernández Vega Marco A., 2021. "The Nonlinear Effect of Uncertainty in Portfolio Flows to Mexico," Working Papers 2021-11, Banco de México.
    5. Grabowski, Wojciech & Janus, Jakub & Stawasz-Grabowska, Ewa, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic and financial markets in Central Europe: Macroeconomic measures and international policy spillovers," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Carlos Alba & Gabriel Cuadra & Juan R. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra, 2024. "Capital flows to emerging economies and global risk aversion during the COVID‐19 pandemic," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 2804-2836, July.
    7. Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Changing efficiency of BRICS currency markets during the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1673-1699, August.
    8. Rhea Choudhary, 2022. "Analysing the spillover effects of the South African Reserve Banks bond purchase programme," Working Papers 11025, South African Reserve Bank.
    9. Ding, Haoyuan & Pu, Bo & Ying, Jiezhou, 2023. "Direct and spillover portfolio effects of COVID-19," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    10. Juan Carlos MORENO-BRID & Lorenzo NALIN & Edgar PEREZ-MEDINA, 2023. "Current External Challenges To The Economic Expansion Of Emerging Markets: An Analysis Of Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Turkey, Ghana And India For 2006-2021," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(2), pages 5-36.
    11. Wenbo Wang & Hail Park, 2021. "How Vulnerable Are Financial Markets to COVID-19? A Comparative Study of the US and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    12. Ferriani, Fabrizio, 2021. "From taper tantrum to Covid-19: Portfolio flows to emerging markets in periods of stress," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Nevi Danila, 2023. "The Asymme The Asymmetric Ex Tric Exchange Ra Ange Rate Pass-Through T Ass-Through To Inflation In The Selected Asean Countries," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(1), pages 125-144, March.
    14. Greta Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene & Julius Kviklis, 2021. "Stock Market Reactions during Different Phases of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Cases of Italy and Spain," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, December.
    15. John Beirne & Nuobu Renzhi & Eric Sugandi & Ulrich Volz, 2021. "COVID‐19, asset markets and capital flows," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 498-538, October.
    16. Faaza Fakhrunnas & Rindang Nuri Isnaini Nugrohowati & Razali Haron & MB Hendrie Anto, 2023. "The Asymmetric Relationship Between Macroeconomic Determinants And Nonperforming Loans: Evidence From The Banking Industry Of Indonesia," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(1), pages 145-174, March.
    17. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid & Lorenzo Nalin & Edgar Pérez-Medina, 2022. "External challenges to the economic expansion of emerging markets in the post-COVID 19 and post-COP26 era: A balance-of-payments constrained growth (BPCG) perspective," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 75(303), pages 313-354.
    18. Ferry Syarifuddin & Maman Setiawan, 2021. "Capital Flow Amid The Covid-19 Pandemic: Cross-Country Contagion Effect Among Asean5 And Projection Of The Impacts For The Indonesian Economy," Working Papers WP/08/2021, Bank Indonesia.
    19. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid & Lorenzo Nalin & Edgar Perez-Medina, 2023. "Current External Challenges to the Economic Expansion of Emerging Markets," Working Papers Series inetwp201, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    20. Scherf, Matthias & Matschke, Xenia & Rieger, Marc Oliver, 2022. "Stock market reactions to COVID-19 lockdown: A global analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    21. Janus, Jakub, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and long-term interest rates in emerging market economies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    22. Rhea Choudhary, 2022. "AnalysingthespillovereffectsoftheSouthAfricanReserveBanksbondpurchaseprogramme," Working Papers 11039, South African Reserve Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; financial markets; capital flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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