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The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma

Author

Listed:
  • Aizenman, Joshua

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Chinn, Menzie

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Ito, Hiro

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract
This paper extends our previous paper (Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito 2008) and explores some of the unexplored questions. First, we examine the channels through which the trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility. Secondly, we investigate how trilemma policy configurations affect the output performance of the economies under severe crisis situations. Thirdly, we look into how trilemma configurations have evolved in the aftermath of economic crises in the past. We find that trilemma policy configurations and external finances affect output volatility mainly through the investment channel. While a higher degree of exchange rate stability could stabilize the real exchange rate movement, it could also make investment volatile, though the volatility-enhancing effect of exchange rate stability on investment can be cancelled by holding higher levels of international reserves (IR). Greater financial openness helps reduce real exchange rate volatility. These results indicate that policymakers in a more open economy would prefer pursuing greater exchange rate stability and greater financial openness while holding a massive amount of IR. We also find that the "crisis economies" could end up with smaller output losses if they entered the crisis situation with more stable exchange rates or if they continue to hold a high level of IR and maintain greater exchange rate stability during the crisis period. Lastly, we find that developing countries are often found to have decreased the level of monetary independence and financial openness, but increased the level of exchange rate stability in the aftermath of a crisis, especially for the last two decades. This finding indicates how vulnerable developing countries, especially emerging market ones, are to volatile capital flows as a result of global financial liberalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The Financial Crisis, Rethinking of the Global Financial Architecture, and the Trilemma," ADBI Working Papers 213, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0213
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Bicaba, Zorobabel, 2011. "Growth and financial reforms trajectory: an optimal matching sequence analysis approach," MPRA Paper 34057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Joshua Aizenman & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2013. "Financial Trilemma in China and a Comparative Analysis with India," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 123-146, May.
    4. Jong-Eun Lee, 2016. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Foreign Reserves: Revisiting the Dornbusch Overshooting Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 406-414, May.
    5. Nabi, Mahmoud Sami, 2021. "لتشع تونس من جديد [Making the Tunisian Resurgence]," MPRA Paper 107225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Padhan, Hemachandra & Sahu, Santosh Kumar & Dash, Umakant, 2021. "Non-linear analysis of international reserve, trade and trilemma in India," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    7. Inderjit Kaur & Nirvikar Singh, 2014. "Financial Integration and Financial Development in East Asia," Millennial Asia, , vol. 5(1), pages 1-22, April.
    8. Eleftherios Thalassinos & Theodore V. Stamatopoulos, 2015. "The Trilemma and the Eurozone: A Pre-announced Tragedy of the Hellenic Debt Crisis," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 27-40.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    trilemma policy; capital outflows; investment channel; asia regional;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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