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Inflation Expectations and Consumption Expenditure

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Weber

    (University of Chicago)

  • Daniel Hoang

    (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

  • Francesco D'Acunto

    (University of California at Berkeley)

Abstract
We document a positive cross-sectional association between households' inflation expectations and their willingness to purchase durable consumption goods. Households that expect inflation to increase are 8% more likely to have a positive spending attitude compared to households that expect constant or decreasing inflation. This positive association is higher for more educated households, working-age households, high-income households, and urban households. We use novel German survey data for the period from 2000 to 2013 to establish these facts. To obtain identification, we exploit an unexpected shock to households' inflation expectations: the newly-appointed administration unexpectedly announced in November 2005 a three percentage point increase in the value-added tax (VAT) effective in 2007. The unexpected VAT increase led to an exogenous increase in inflation expectations which had a large positive effect on the willingness to spend on durables. Our findings suggest that fiscal and monetary policy measures that engineer higher inflation expectations may be successful in stimulating consumption expenditures.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Weber & Daniel Hoang & Francesco D'Acunto, 2015. "Inflation Expectations and Consumption Expenditure," 2015 Meeting Papers 1266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed015:1266
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2022. "Subjective intertemporal substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 118-133.
    4. Filip Premik & Ewa Stanisławska, 2017. "The Impact of Inflation Expectations on Polish Consumers’ Spending and Saving," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, January.
    5. Jalil, Andrew J. & Rua, Gisela, 2016. "Inflation expectations and recovery in spring 1933," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 26-50.
    6. Ekaterina Arapova, 2018. "Determinants Of Household Final Consumption Expenditures In Asian Countries: A Panel Model, 1991-2015," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 18(1), pages 121-140.
    7. Michael Weber & Ali Ozdagli, 2016. "Monetary Policy Through Production Networks: Evidence from the Stock Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 148, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Binder, Carola, 2017. "Fed speak on main street: Central bank communication and household expectations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 238-251.
    9. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    10. Luis Armona & Andreas Fuster & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Home Price Expectations and Behaviour: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 86(4), pages 1371-1410.
    11. Rodolfo Arioli & Colm Bates & Heinz Dieden & Ioana Duca & Roberta Friz & Christian Gayer & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Iskra Pavlova, 2016. "EU Consumers’ Quantitative Inflation Perceptions and Expectations: An Evaluation," European Economy - Discussion Papers 038, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Juan Carlos Berganza & Pedro del Río & Fructuoso Borrallo, 2016. "Determinants and implications of low global inflation rates," Occasional Papers 1608, Banco de España.
    13. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
    14. Domit, Sílvia & Jackson, Chris & Roberts-Sklar , Matt, 2015. "Do inflation expectations currently pose a risk to inflation?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 55(55), pages 165-180.
    15. Yuichiro Ito & Sohei Kaihatsu, 2016. "Effects of Inflation and Wage Expectations on Consumer Spending: Evidence from Micro Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 16-E-7, Bank of Japan.
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    17. Santosh K. Dash & Lakshmi Kumar, 2018. "Does Inflation Affect Savings Non-linearly? Evidence from India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(4), pages 431-457, November.

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