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Optimal and robust control of invasive alien species spreading in homogeneous landscapes

Author

Listed:
  • Carrasco, Luis Roman
  • Baker, R
  • MacLeod, A
  • Knight, J. D.
  • Mumford, J. D.
Abstract
Government agencies lack robust modelling tools to manage the spread of invasive alien species (IAS). In this paper, we combine optimal control and simulation methods with biological invasion spread theory to estimate the type of optimal policy and switching point of control efforts against a spreading IAS. We employ information-gap (info-gap) theory to assess how the optimal solutions differ from a policy that is most robustly immune to unacceptable outcomes. The model is applied to the potential invasion of the Colorado potato beetle in the UK. Under no uncertainty, we demonstrate that for many of the parameter combinations the optimal control policy corresponds to slowing down the invasion. The info-gap analysis shows that eradication policies identified as optimal under no uncertainty are robustly the best policies even under severe uncertainty, i.e. even if they are likely to turn into slowing down policies. We also show that the control of satellite colonies, if identified as optimal under no uncertainty, will also be a robust slowing down policy for IAS that can spread by long distance dispersal even for relatively ineffective control measures. The results suggest that agencies adopt management strategies that are robustly optimal, despite the severe uncertainties they face.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrasco, Luis Roman & Baker, R & MacLeod, A & Knight, J. D. & Mumford, J. D., 2009. "Optimal and robust control of invasive alien species spreading in homogeneous landscapes," MPRA Paper 57757, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57757
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/57757/1/MPRA_paper_57757.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark E. Eiswerth & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2002. "Uncertainty, Economics, and the Spread of an Invasive Plant Species," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1317-1322.
    2. Cacho, Oscar J. & Wise, Russell M. & Hester, Susan M. & Sinden, J.A., 2008. "Bioeconomic modeling for control of weeds in natural environments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 559-568, April.
    3. Suresh P. Sethi, 2021. "Optimal Control Theory," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 4, number 978-3-030-91745-6, June.
    4. Burnett, Kimberly & Kaiser, Brooks & Roumasset, James, 2007. "Economic lessons from control efforts for an invasive species: Miconia calvescens in Hawaii," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 151-167, August.
    5. Richard D. Horan & Charles Perrings & Frank Lupi & Erwin H. Bulte, 2002. "Biological Pollution Prevention Strategies under Ignorance:The Case of Invasive Species," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1303-1310.
    6. Kim, C.S. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Eiswerth, Mark E., 2006. "Prevention or Control: Optimal Government Policies for Invasive Species Management," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-12, April.
    7. Lars J. Olson & Santanu Roy, 2002. "The Economics of Controlling a Stochastic Biological Invasion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1311-1316.
    8. Kim, C.S. & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Eiswerth, Mark E., 2006. "Prevention or Control: Optimal Government Policies for Invasive Species Management," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(1), pages 29-40, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. White, Benedict & Sadler, Rohan & Florec, Veronique & Dominiak, Bernie, 2012. "Economics of Surveillance: a Bioeconomic Assessment of Queensland Fruit Fly," 2012 Conference (56th), February 7-10, 2012, Fremantle, Australia 125741, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Control Theory; Pest-Risk analysis; Reaction-Diffusion; Stratified Diffusion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • Q59 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Other

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