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A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer: the Czech example

Author

Listed:
  • Pfeifer, Lukáš
  • Hodula, Martin
Abstract
Over the last few years, national macroprudential authorities have developed different strategies for setting the countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) rate in the banking sector. The existing approaches are based on various indicators used to identify the current phase of the financial cycle. However, to our knowledge, there is no approach that directly takes into consideration banks’ prudential behavior over the financial cycle as well as cyclical risks in the banking sector. In this paper, we propose a new profit-to-provisioning approach that can be used in the macroprudential decision-making process. We construct a new set of indicators that largely capture the risk of cyclicality of profit and loan loss provisions. We argue that banks should conserve a portion of the cyclically overestimated profit (non-materialized expected loss) in their capital during a financial boom. We evaluate the performance of our newly proposed indicators using two econometric exercises. Overall, they exhibit good statistical properties, are relevant to the CCyB decision-making process, and may contribute to a more precise assessment of both systemic risk accumulation and risk materialization. We believe that the relevance of the profit-to-provisioning approach and the related set of newly proposed indicators increases under IFRS 9. JEL Classification: E58, G21, G28

Suggested Citation

  • Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2018. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer: the Czech example," ESRB Working Paper Series 82, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkwps:201882
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Libor Holub & Tomas Konecny & Lukas Pfeifer & Vaclav Broz, 2020. "The CNB's approach to releasing the countercyclical capital buffer," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,, Czech National Bank.
    2. Milan Szabo, 2020. "Growth-at-Risk: Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2020/3, Czech National Bank.
    3. Milan Szabo & Zlatuse Komarkova & Martin Casta, 2020. "Vulnerable growth: Bayesian GDP-at-Risk," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,, Czech National Bank.
    4. Lukas Pfeifer & Martin Hodula & Libor Holub & Zdenek Pikhart, 2018. "The Leverage Ratio and Its Impact on Capital Regulation," Working Papers 2018/15, Czech National Bank.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking prudence indicators; countercyclical capital buffer; financial stability; macroprudential policy; profit-to-provisioning approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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