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Migration and Macroeconomic Performance in New Zealand: Theory and Evidence

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Abstract
New Zealand immigration policy settings are based on the assumption that the macroeconomic impacts of immigration may be significantly positive, with at worst small negative effects. However, both large positive and large negative effects are possible. Reviewing the literature, the balance of evidence suggests that while past immigration has, at times, had significant net benefits, over the past couple of decades the positive effects of immigration on per capita growth, productivity, fiscal balance and mitigating population ageing are likely to have been modest. There is also some evidence that immigration, together with other forms of population growth, has exacerbated pressures on New Zealand’s insufficiently-responsive housing market. Meeting the infrastructure needs of immigrants in an economy with a quite modest rate of national saving may also have diverted resources from productive tradable activities, with negative macroeconomic impacts. Therefore from a macroeconomic perspective, a least regrets approach suggests that immigration policy should be more closely tailored to the economy’s ability to adjust to population increase. At a minimum, this emphasises the importance of improving the economy’s ability to respond to population increase. If this cannot be achieved, there may be merit in considering a reduced immigration target as a tool for easing macroeconomic pressures. More work is required to assess the potential net benefits of an increase in immigration as part of a strategy to pursue scale and agglomeration effects through increased population, or whether a decrease in immigration could facilitate lower interest rates, a lower exchange rate, and more balanced growth going forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Julie Fry, 2014. "Migration and Macroeconomic Performance in New Zealand: Theory and Evidence," Treasury Working Paper Series 14/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:14/10
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    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2014-04/twp14-10.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Conway, 2018. "Can the Kiwi Fly? Achieving Productivity Lift-off in New Zealand," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 34, pages 40-63, Spring.
    2. Keith McLeod & Richard Fabling & David C. Maré, 2014. "Hiring New Ideas: International Migration and Firm Innovation in New Zealand," Working Papers 14_14, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    3. Sorin Manole & Laura Panoiu & Adriana Paunescu, 2017. "Impact of Migration upon a Receiving Country’s Economic Development," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 19(46), pages 670-670, August.
    4. Daniela Gabriela COZMA & Margareta BOCANCIA, 2019. "The trend of the Romanian migration flow explained by means of statistical models," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 11(3), pages 234-258, Octomber.
    5. Steven Stillman & David C. Maré, 2008. "Housing Markets and Migration: Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers 08_06, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    6. Paul Conway, 2016. "Achieving New Zealand's productivity potential," Working Papers 2016/01, New Zealand Productivity Commission.
    7. Bill Cochrane & Jacques Poot, 2019. "The Effects of Immigration on Local Housing Markets," Working Papers in Economics 19/07, University of Waikato.
    8. Geoffrey T. F. Brooke & Anthony M. Endres & Alan J. Rogers, 2016. "The Economists and New Zealand Population: Problems and Policies 1900–1980s," Working Papers 2016-08, Auckland University of Technology, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomics; migration; immigration; emigration; labour market; housing market; factor price equalisation; productivity; growth; scale; agglomeration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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