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Spillovers at the Extremes: The Macroprudential Stance and Vulnerability to the Global Financial Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Anusha Chari
  • Karlye Dilts Stedman
  • Kristin Forbes
Abstract
The effects of macroprudential policy on portfolio flows vary considerably across the global financial cycle. A tighter ex-ante macroprudential stance amplifies the impact of global risk shocks on bond and equity flows, increasing outflows significantly more during risk-off episodes and increasing inflows significantly more during risk-on episodes. These amplification effects are more prominent at the “extremes,” especially for extreme risk-off periods and for regulations that target specific risks instead of generalized cyclical buffers. This paper estimates these relationships using a policy-shocks approach that corrects for reverse causality by combining high-frequency risk measures with weekly data on portfolio investment and a new measure of macroprudential regulations that captures the intensity of policy stances. Overall, the results support a growing body of evidence that macroprudential regulation can reduce the volume and volatility of bank flows but shift risks in ways that aggravate vulnerabilities in other parts of the financial system.

Suggested Citation

  • Anusha Chari & Karlye Dilts Stedman & Kristin Forbes, 2022. "Spillovers at the Extremes: The Macroprudential Stance and Vulnerability to the Global Financial Cycle," NBER Working Papers 29670, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29670
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    Cited by:

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    9. Guiting Lin & Alice Y. Ouyang, 2024. "Macroprudential policy leakage: Evidence from shadow banking activities of Chinese enterprises," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 160-182, January.
    10. Coulier, Lara & De Schryder, Selien, 2024. "Assessing the effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy on credit in the EU using intensity-based indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Bergant, Katharina & Forbes, Kristin, 2023. "Policy packages and policy space: Lessons from COVID-19☆," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Peter Karlström, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy, Credit Booms, and Banks' Systemic Risk," CEMLA Working Paper Series 03/2023, CEMLA.
    13. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2023. "Capital requirements and growth in an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    14. Chokri Zehri & Zagros Madjd‐Sadjadi, 2024. "Capital flow management and monetary policy to control credit growth," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 637-676, July.
    15. Katharina Bergant & Kristin Forbes, 2023. "Macroprudential Policy during COVID-19: The Role of Policy Space," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Claudio Borio & Edward S Robinson & Hyun Song Shin (ed.), MACRO-FINANCIAL STABILITY POLICY IN A GLOBALISED WORLD: LESSONS FROM INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE Selected Papers from the Asian Monetary Policy Forum 202, chapter 8, pages 130-174, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Ferrero, Andrea & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stracca, Livio & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2022. "Leaning against the global financial cycle," Working Paper Series 2763, European Central Bank.
    17. Krenz, Johanna & Verma, Akhilesh K, 2023. "A leaky pipeline: Macroprudential policy shocks, non-bank financial intermediation and systemic risk in Europe," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 79, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    18. Davis, J. Scott & Zlate, Andrei, 2023. "The global financial cycle and capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
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    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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