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State-run Banks, Money Growth, and the Real Economy

Author

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  • Randall Morck
  • M. Deniz Yavuz
  • Bernard Yeung
Abstract
Within countries, state-run banks’ lending correlates with prior money growth; otherwise similar private-sector banks’ lending does not. Aggregate credit and investment growth correlate with prior money growth more where banking systems are more state-run. Size and liquidity differences between state-run and private-sector banks do not drive these results; further tests discount broad classes of alternative explanations. Tests exploiting heterogeneity in likely political pressure on state-run banks associated with privatizations and elections suggest a command-and-control pseudo-monetary policy channel: changes in money growth, perhaps reflecting political pressure on the central bank, change banks’ lending constraints; political pressure actually changes state-run banks’ lending.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall Morck & M. Deniz Yavuz & Bernard Yeung, 2013. "State-run Banks, Money Growth, and the Real Economy," NBER Working Papers 19004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19004
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    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • P5 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems

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