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Unwilling or Unable to Cheat? Evidence from a Randomized Tax Audit Experiment in Denmark

Author

Listed:
  • Henrik J. Kleven
  • Martin B. Knudsen
  • Claus T. Kreiner
  • Søren Pedersen
  • Emmanuel Saez
Abstract
This paper analyzes a randomized tax enforcement experiment in Denmark. In the base year, a stratified and representative sample of over 40,000 individual income tax filers was selected for the experiment. Half of the tax filers were randomly selected to be thoroughly audited, while the rest were deliberately not audited. The following year, "threat-of-audit" letters were randomly assigned and sent to tax filers in both groups. Using comprehensive administrative tax data, we present four main findings. First, we find that the tax evasion rate is very small (0.3%) for income subject to third-party reporting, but substantial (37%) for self-reported income. Since 95% of all income is third-party reported, the overall evasion rate is very modest. Second, using bunching evidence around large and salient kink points of the nonlinear income tax schedule, we find that marginal tax rates have a positive impact on tax evasion, but that this effect is small in comparison to avoidance responses. Third, we find that prior audits substantially increase self-reported income, implying that individuals update their beliefs about detection probability based on experiencing an audit. Fourth, threat-of-audit letters also have a significant effect on self-reported income, and the size of this effect depends positively on the audit probability expressed in the letter. All these empirical results can be explained by extending the standard model of (rational) tax evasion to allow for the key distinction between self-reported and third-party reported incomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik J. Kleven & Martin B. Knudsen & Claus T. Kreiner & Søren Pedersen & Emmanuel Saez, 2010. "Unwilling or Unable to Cheat? Evidence from a Randomized Tax Audit Experiment in Denmark," NBER Working Papers 15769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15769
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kjetil Telle, 2012. "Monitoring and enforcement of environmental regulations. Lessons from a natural field experiment in Norway," Discussion Papers 680, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. James Alm, 2012. "Measuring, explaining, and controlling tax evasion: lessons from theory, experiments, and field studies," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 54-77, February.
    4. Ginger Zhe Jin & Jungmin Lee, 2018. "A Tale of Repetition: Lessons from Florida Restaurant Inspections," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(1), pages 159-188.
    5. Sara LaLumia & James Sallee, 2013. "The value of honesty: empirical estimates from the case of the missing children," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(2), pages 192-224, April.
    6. Paul Carrillo & Dina Pomeranz & Monica Singhal, 2017. "Dodging the Taxman: Firm Misreporting and Limits to Tax Enforcement," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 144-164, April.
    7. He, Yuhan & Yi, Yang, 2023. "Digitalization of tax administration and corporate performance: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. James Alm, 2014. "Expanding the theory of tax compliance from individual to group motivations," Chapters, in: Francesco Forte & Ram Mudambi & Pietro Maria Navarra (ed.), A Handbook of Alternative Theories of Public Economics, chapter 12, pages 260-277, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Gallen, Trevor S., 2018. "Is the labor wedge due to rigid wages? Evidence from the self-employed," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 184-198.
    10. Cornelissen, Thomas & Himmler, Oliver & Koenig, Tobias, 2013. "Fairness spillovers—The case of taxation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 164-180.
    11. Matti Viren, 2015. "Why so little revenues are obtained from a presumed large shadow economy?," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 101-123, May.
    12. Emilian Dobrescu, 2018. "Functional trinity of public finance in an emerging economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    13. Erling Barth & Alexander W. Cappelen & Tone Ognedal, 2013. "Fair Tax Evasion," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 38, pages 1-3.
    14. Paul E. Carrillo & M. Shahe Emran & Gabriela Aparicio, 2011. "Taxes, Prisons, and CFOs: The Effects of Increased Punishment on Corporate Tax Compliance in Ecuador," Working Papers 2011-02, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    15. Emilian Dobrescu, 2016. "LINS Curve in Romanian Economy," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 18(41), pages 136-136, February.
    16. Alina Maria NEAȚU, 2015. "The use of behavioral economics in promoting public policy," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(603), S), pages 255-264, Summer.
    17. Telle, Kjetil, 2013. "Monitoring and enforcement of environmental regulations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 24-34.
    18. repec:agr:journl:v:2(602):y:2015:i:2(602):p:255-264 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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