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The Timing of Purchases and Aggregate Fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • John V. Leahy
  • Joseph Zeira
Abstract
This paper analyzes how the decision of when to buy a durable good affects both non-durable consumption and business cycle dynamics. At the individual level, we show that the timing of durable goods purchases plays an important role in smoothing consumption over time. In the benchmark case, the time at which the agent purchases the durable good is the only variable that reacts to changes in wealth, while other variables, such as the consumption of non-durables or the amount of the durable that the individual purchases, remain unchanged. At the aggregate level, we show that timing decisions can serve as a mechanism for the amplification and propagation of aggregate shocks. A decline in wealth causes individuals to delay their durable goods purchases which reduces demand dramatically for some time.

Suggested Citation

  • John V. Leahy & Joseph Zeira, 2000. "The Timing of Purchases and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 7672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7672
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grossman, Sanford J & Laroque, Guy, 1990. "Asset Pricing and Optimal Portfolio Choice in the Presence of Illiquid Durable Consumption Goods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 25-51, January.
    2. De Gregorio, Jose & Guidotti, Pablo E & Vegh, Carlos A, 1998. "Inflation Stabilisation and the Consumption of Durable Goods," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(446), pages 105-131, January.
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    4. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1993. "Durable Goods: An Explanation for Their Slow Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 351-384, April.
    5. Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "Adjustment of Consumers' Durables Stocks: Evidence from Automobile Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(3), pages 403-436, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    2. Christopher L. House & John V. Leahy, 2004. "An sS Model with Adverse Selection," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 581-614, June.
    3. Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, 2021. "Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2717-2749, November.
    4. Giuseppe Bertola & Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri, 2005. "Uncertainty and Consumer Durables Adjustment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(4), pages 973-1007.
    5. Ennio Stacchetti & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2004. "Obsolescence of Durable Goods and Optimal Consumption," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 120, Econometric Society.
    6. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Klara Sabirianova Peter & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2010. "Inequality and Volatility Moderation in Russia: Evidence from Micro-Level Panel Data on Consumption and Income," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(1), pages 209-237, January.
    7. Bill Dupor & Rong Li & M. Saif Mehkari & Yi-Chan Tsai, 2018. "The 2008 U.S. Auto Market Collapse," Working Papers 2018-19, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    8. Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2020. "A quantitative evaluation of the Housing Provident Fund program in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    9. Schaeck, Klaus & Kick, Thomas & Onali, Enrico & Ruprecht, Benedikt, 2014. "Wealth shocks, credit-supply shocks, and asset allocation: evidence from household and firm portfolios," Working Paper Series 1662, European Central Bank.
    10. David Berger & Joseph Vavra, 2015. "Consumption Dynamics During Recessions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 101-154, January.
    11. Christopher L. House & Jing Zhang, 2012. "Layoffs, Lemons and Temps," NBER Working Papers 17962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Aviad Tur-Sinai, 2014. "Adaptation patterns and consumer behavior as a dependency on terror," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 13(2), pages 257-269, November.
    13. Iscan, Talan B., 2002. "Present value tests of the current account with durables consumption," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 385-412, June.
    14. Kim, Hwang & Rao, Vithala R., 2023. "A comparison of online recommendation methods: Simultaneous versus sequential approaches," Journal of Retailing, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 210-227.
    15. Joseph Vavra & David Berger, 2012. "Consumption Dynamics During the Great Recession," 2012 Meeting Papers 109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Rong, Zhao, 2011. "Free riding and durable adoption: a test of color television consumption in rural China," MPRA Paper 33434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jerome Adda & Russell Cooper, 2000. "The Dynamics of Car Sales: A Discrete Choice Approach," NBER Working Papers 7785, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Fernandes, Ana P. & Winters, L. Alan, 2021. "Exporters and shocks: The impact of the Brexit vote shock on bilateral exports to the UK," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    19. Mårten Bjellerup & Thomas Holgersson, 2009. "A simple multivariate test for asymmetry," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(11), pages 1405-1416.
    20. Ennio Stacchetti & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2015. "Obsolescence of Durable Goods and Optimal Purchase Timing," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 752-773, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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